The average temperature of planet Earth could exceed 1,5 degrees Celsius much earlier than expected: by the year 2026, as revealed in a study carried out by scientists from the ARC Center of Excellence for Climate System Science of the University from Melbourne (Australia), and published in the journal »Geophysical Research Letters».
If it happens, it would be because the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (IPO), which is a natural controller of climate, go into a positive or warm phase, accelerating global warming.
What is the IPO?
Monthly values of the IPO index from 1900 to May 2006.
Image - Climate Impacts Group
In this climatic phenomenon of interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean that occurs between the parallels 50º North and 50º South of the Pacific. It has two phases: the positive in which high temperatures are registered, and the negative. The first usually lasts between 1 and 5 years, while the second can last up to 40 years or more.
Is it related to global warming?
In recent years, from 2014 to 2016, there have been temperature records that suggest that the warm phase you are in now could be associated with these records that are being recorded. Still, Ben Henley, one of the study's authors, said that although it is in a negative phase, their research shows that the 1,5ºC barrier is likely to be broken in 2026.
To avoid it, »governments will have to implement policies that not only reduce emissions, but also remove carbon from the atmosphereHenley pointed out.
If this is not achieved, the melting of the poles will cause the level to rise, the deserts will become more arid, and severe droughts could be experienced in the southwestern United States and Mexico.
You can read the study here (In English).