The scientists put the limit of the increase of the global average temperatures in 2 ° C. Why that temperature? Various studies show that from this warming of global temperatures, changes in ecosystems and global atmospheric circulation, the changes produced would be irreversible and unpredictable over time.
For this reason, staying below 1,5 ºC of global warming is one of the objectives proposed by the Paris Agreement and that 195 countries agreed to consider as a limit for the end of the century. However, 65% of the mass of Asia's high mountain glaciers could be lost if greenhouse gas emissions continue like this. Are Asia's glaciers melting?
Asian Glacier Study
A study, led by the University of Utrecht (the Netherlands), suggests that up to 65% of the mass of high mountain glaciers in Asia could be lost under a scenario of continuous high rates of greenhouse gas production.
If emissions continue at the accelerated and exacerbated rate that they do today, the Asian continent would face massive ice losses that would destabilize natural ecosystems and would bring serious supply consequences for those areas that live off it. Drinking water, farmland and hydroelectric dams would be threatened by the decrease in the mass of these glaciers.
In regions where meltwater from glaciers is essential for the flow of rivers and the life of the flora and fauna associated with them. The exploitation of rivers to irrigate crops and rice fields that are supplied with water from glaciers may be diminished by their disappearance.
With higher temperatures warming due to greenhouse gas emissions occurring in China, since 60% of the energy mix is based on the burning of coal, the precipitations in the form of snow increase their minimum level and the glaciers lose mass and volume.
Reduced river discharge can lead to problems related to food and energy production, which can have all kinds of negative cascading consequences.
Impact and consequence assessment
In order to assess the impacts that the loss of these glaciers would produce on water supply, agriculture and hydroelectric dams, the experts who worked on this study published in the journal Nature used multiple sources of precipitation and temperature data from the current climate. Likewise, they were based on satellite data, climate model projections for changes in rainfall and temperatures up to 2100, and also used the results of their own fieldwork carried out in Nepal with UAVs.
The conclusions that this study gave according to the climate scenario that is forecast, even for an ideal scenario in which the Paris Agreement is fulfilled and the average temperatures of the planet do not rise above 1,5 ° C, will be lost around 35% of the mass of glaciers by the year 2100.
With projected temperature increases of around 3,5 ° C, 4 ° C, and 6 ° C, there would be massive losses of approximately 49%, 51%, and 65%, respectively.
Effects of glacier loss
It is quite difficult to determine the effects that the loss of ice will have on the planet's climate. What is certain is that the repercussions it will have will be negative. To continue knowing the consequences of the retreat of these glaciers, an extensive impact study is required that explains the physical and social processes using data from many sources, including the results of this study.
The closer you are to the glacier area, the more important it is the water of fusion for the different activities of human beings. Although in some areas the contribution of glacial meltwater to rivers is greater than in others, the drier western part of the region, such as the Indus Basin, is more dependent on the relatively constant flow of meltwater from glaciers .