The government released a study this year in which it predicts that 75% of the area is at risk of becoming at risk if things do not change. Forceful and alarming. However, there are so many news related to climate catastrophism that only 0,6% of Spaniards are interested in it. And, yes, positive news is needed, but… What is happening? Why don't people react? It's called "the boiled frog syndrome." The French philosopher and writer Olivier Clerc, explained this phenomenon that he detected turning it into a fable. It is applicable to all people, since it happens to all of us in some aspect of our life. The boiled frog syndrome invites us to reflect on our lives with this real analogy.
A frog that is inside a pot about to boil would jump, not to die. However, if the frog were inside the pot, and the water temperature rose little by little at a rate of 0,02ºC per minute, it would not. The process is very slow and imperceptible, and as soon as you become aware of the problem, it is too late and you die boiled. In history, this problem has occurred on more than one occasion. Sometimes gradually, sometimes exponentially. We can find this problem even between the resources of our planet and the overpopulation that occupies us. A little analysis makes us see how we have multiplied faster and faster. And while it seems that we will not continue to grow at such an unbridled rate, we will continue to grow. With climate change, the consequences are the same, they are seen, and we see it as something still distant.
Future risks of desertification in Spain
By 2090 it is estimated that between 75% and 80% of the surface is at risk of desertification. The National Action against Desertification program shows us the areas most prone to these changes. The Government is committed to taking initiatives in all sectors, especially those that involve greater water resources, forestry and agriculture. The answer that is given goes in three directions. On the one hand, prevent more areas from becoming desert. Second, rehabilitate areas that have already been desertified. Finally also develop in a sustainable way those arid areas that cannot be recovered.
Paleoecologists Joel Guiot and Wolfgang Cramer announced in Science magazine that in 2090 half of Spain would be like the Sahara. This scenario, together with the predicted temperature rises, and the continuous records that are being recorded as in this summer, make the predictions, the least crazy even for the most skeptical. Rises of 3 to 4 degrees in Madrid, which will make it the same temperature as Casablanca. And new ecosystems will emerge in the Mediterranean basin that have not been seen in 10.000 years.
The most affected places in the Mediterranean and in Spain
The change in rainfall is also another factor. Among the most affected communities will be Murcia and the Valencian Community. They are the places where the effects of climate change are most expected. And in itself, the entire area of the dry and semi-arid Mediterranean climate. Among the most accused to see the consequences of desertification is the period between 2041 and 2070. The index is expected to be very high, and although it is assumed that some changes will be inevitable, every effort will be made to mitigate the effects.
Paco Gil, secretary of the Agrarian Union Organization, explains that it is not about being alarmists, but the realism of what is happening. "Rainfalls are what they have been for two decades, so saying that the desert knocks louder every day at our door is not alarmist," in his words, in relation to the catastrophe that is already being experienced in Murcia.
We must take measures, all in general, and be aware of the future that awaits us. The desert is gaining more and more ground to the north, and it will not be solved by sprinkling a traffic roundabout showing green grass.