We start a new year. A new blank book is opened for us to fill it with illusions, hopes, decisions and moments, both good and not so good. As far as meteorology is concerned, it will be a warm year According to the forecast of the United Kingdom Met Office (UK Met Office), but it will not be a record as it can be in 2016.
The increase in temperatures as a consequence of the increasingly high emissions of greenhouse gases, makes each new year enter the list of the warmest recorded.
The global temperature in 2017 could be between 0,63 and 0,87ºC above the long-term average (period 1961-1990) of 14ºC, with a central estimate of 0,75ºC. Using the 1981-2003 long-term average of 14,3ºC, the forecast range is between 0,32 and 0,56ºC with a central estimate of 0,44ºC, making it one of the warmest years. of the last few years.
"This forecast, which uses Met Office's new supercomputer, adds weight to our previous prediction that 2017 will be very warm worldwide, but it is unlikely to exceed 2015 and 2016," said Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Forecasting long-term at the Met Office. These last two years have been the hottest since 1850, not only due to the additional warming of El Niño, but also due to the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide or methane.
Although it is difficult to know exactly what will happen in the medium and long term, studying and analyzing the data and taking into account factors that influence the climate, such as the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, scientists intuit that this year that we have just released become one of the hottest on record globally.
You can read the full forecast here! (In English).