Umuntu ubelokhu enesifiso sokwazi isimo sezulu futhi asibikezele. Ngenxa yokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe, kunezinhlobo ezahlukahlukene zamakhompyutha ezisiza ukubikezela ukuthi isimo sezulu sizokwenzani ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ngemuva kwalokho. Namuhla sizokhuluma ngakho Imodeli ye-GFS. Ingenye yamamodeli abaluleke kakhulu futhi enokufaneleka okukhulu emhlabeni wonke.
Ngakho-ke, sizonikezela le ndatshana ukukutshela konke odinga ukukwazi ngemodeli ye-GFS, izici zayo nokubaluleka kwayo.
Iyini imodeli ye-GFS
Ama-initials ahambisana ne-Global Forecast System. NgeSpanishi kusho njengohlelo lomhlaba wonke lokwenqatshelwa, yize lwaziwa kahle ngamanye amagama. Luhlobo lwezinombolo zezibalo ezisetshenziselwa ukubikezela isimo sezulu. Yenziwe futhi okwamanje isetshenziswa yiNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration yase-USA.Yimodeli yezibalo evuselelwa isikhathi esiphindwe kane ngosuku. Ngokuya ngemininingwane etholwe kokuhlukahluka kwesimo sezulu, ukubikezela kungakhiwa kuze kufike ezinsukwini eziyi-4 ngaphambi kwesikhathi.
Kuyaziwa ukuthi lezi zibikezelo azithembeki ngokuphelele ngoba amandla asemkhathini angashintshwa kalula. Izici zomkhathi nesimo sezulu esikhona kuncike enanini lezinto eziguqukayo eziningi ngasikhathi sinye. Iningi lalezi zinto eziguqukayo zithonywe ngqo inani lemisebe yelanga ethinta iplanethi yethu. Ngokuvumelana ne inani lemisebe yelanga kanye nakho konke okunye okuguqukayo kuyashintshwa kuqala ngezinga lokushisa kanye nombuso womoya.
Kuyamukeleka ukuthi ukubikezela kwemodeli ye-GFS akusiniki ukuthembeka okuphezulu ngemuva kwezinsuku eziyi-7. Kungaze kuthiwe ngemuva kwezinsuku eziyi-3-4 akusenembe ngokuphelele. Iningi lezikhungo zezulu zezulu kanye nama-ejensi akhipha imiphumela eminingi evela kule modeli, ikakhulukazi leyo edlula izinsuku eziyi-10 kamuva.
Izinhlobo zokubikezela isimo sezulu
Ukuze ukwazi ukubikezela isimo sezulu, kudingeka izinhlobo ezahlukahlukene zezinombolo. Lezi zinhlobo zezinombolo zithatha amanani eziguquguqukayo zomkhathi futhi ngokusebenzisa izibalo eziyinkimbinkimbi isimo salezi zinto eziguqukayo singaziwa maduze. Kunezinhlobo ezi-4 zezinombolo zezibikezelo zesimo sezulu ezisetshenziswa kakhulu emhlabeni jikelele:
- Uhlelo Lokuhlanganisa Isimo Sezulu Oluhlanganisiwe we-European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast.
- IGlobal Environmental Multiscale Imodeli yaseCanada.
- Uhlelo Lokuqagela Lomkhumbi Wezwe Lomkhumbi Kazwelonke wamasosha aseMelika.
- I-GFS (Uhlelo Lomhlaba Wonke Lomhlaba).
Lawa amamodeli asetshenziswa kakhulu wokubikezela kwesimo sezulu esikhathini esiphakathi nangesilinganiso se-synopic.
Imodeli ye-European GFS
Lapho sesazi ukusebenza kwalolu hlobo lwemodeli yokubikezela kwesimo sezulu, kufanele sisekele komehluko okhona ezingxenyeni ezahlukahlukene zamazwe omhlaba. Ngokuqondile, kufanele ubheke imodeli ye-European GFS. Futhi ingabe leyo imodeli Inezinzuzo eziningi ngaphezulu komncintiswano ophezulu owenziwe nguhulumeni wase-United States of America. Uma okwamanje siqhathanisa zombili lezi zinhlobo, kuyimpikiswano ezoba nokuphela. Zombili zinezici ezinhle kakhulu futhi zibikezela ngokusondelana. Azikho izivivinyo ezihlosiwe okwamanje ezenziwa yinkampani esebenza ngokuzimela ukuthola ukuthi imuphi kumamodeli amabili ongcono kakhulu ukubikezela isimo sezulu.
Yize kungekho kulezi zimodeli ezimbili enqoba enye, ongoti abaningi kulo mkhakha bakhetha imodeli yaseYurophu. Omunye umehluko omkhulu phakathi kwale modeli neyaseMelika ubuchwepheshe bayo. Inezinhlelo zamakhompyutha eziyinkimbinkimbi futhi ezibizayo ezibavumela ukuthi basebenze kahle kakhulu. Ngalobu buchwepheshe obusezingeni eliphezulu, izilinganiso zomkhathi eziqondile, ezilungisiwe neziphezulu ziyafinyelelwa.
Ochwepheshe abaningi bathi imodeli ye-European GFS ingcono kakhulu kune-United States ngokulingiswa kwedatha. Impikiswano abayisebenzisayo ukuthi iphelele ngokwengeziwe futhi inikezela ngemininingwane ethe xaxa eqinisekisiwe. Ukwenza isibonelo ukuze kubonakale umehluko phakathi kwamamodeli aseYurophu nawaseMelika, owaseYurophu unjalo Iyakwazi ukwenza okungu-50 kuye kokufaniswa komoya ngomjikelezo wesimo sezulu, ngenkathi iNyakatho Melika ingakwazi ukulingisa okungama-20 ngasikhathi.
Imodeli ye-GFS eSpain
Kukhona futhi le modeli yokubikezela isimo sezulu ezweni lethu. Le modeli isebenzisa imodeli yayo ngayinye ezingxenyeni eziningi. Ake sibone ukuthi yiziphi lezi zingxenye:
- Okokuqala kwenziwa ngesinqumo esiphezulu nesingcono kune- imvamisa kufinyelela kumahora we-192, okulingana nezinsuku eziyi-8 ngamamephu wawo wonke amahora ayisithupha wokubikezela.
- Enye ingxenye yesibikezelo inesinqumo esiphansi. Futhi kungukuthi kufaka kuphela phakathi kwamahora angama-204 nama-384, okungaba yizinsuku eziyi-16 ezinamamephu wazo zonke amahora ayi-12. Njengoba kulindelekile, lesi sibikezelo sinesinqumo esiphansi, ngoba njengoba sihlanganisa izinsuku eziningi, asikwazi ukukwenza ngokunemba okufanayo.
Endaweni yaseSpain, le modeli ijwayele ukusetshenziswa cishe izikhathi ezine ngosuku ukuze ikwazi ukulinganisa kahle ukubikezela kwesikhashana. Kungashiwo ukuthi isetshenziswa ngehora le-4, 0 no-6. Mayelana nokuvuselelwa kwamamephu angabukwa ukubona imiphumela yokubikezela, abulawa ngesikhathi sangempela kusuka ku-12: 18, 3: 30, 9: 30 no-15: 30 UTC.
Kumele kubhekwe ukuthi lolu hlobo lwamamodeli wokubikezela kwesimo sezulu lunamaphutha awo ngoba okuguquguqukayo komkhathi akunakho ukusebenza okuhleliwe. Ngakho-ke, siyakubona lokho imibiko eminingi yesimo sezulu ayilungile ngokubikezela ngoba ukuvela komkhathi akulula ngaso sonke isikhathi ukubikezela. Amanye amaphethini afana nokwakheka kweziphepho noma ama-anticyclone angaba lula. Kodwa-ke, ukubikezela ukuhamba kwalezi zindiza zomoya kunzima kakhulu ukukuqagela.
Ngiyethemba ukuthi ngalolu lwazi ungafunda kabanzi ngemodeli ye-GFS, izici zayo nokubaluleka kwayo.