Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuwathinta kanjani amazwe?

imiphumela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni

Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kunemiphumela emibi kakhulu emhlabeni wethu. Imiphumela yakhona iyanda kokubili ngemvamisa nangamandla ngenxa ye- ukwanda komphumela wokushisa.

Emlandweni woMhlaba kube nezinguquko eziningana zesimo sezulu, kodwa-ke, lokhu okukhiqizwa ngumuntu kukhulu kakhulu. Imbangela yayo enkulu ukukhishwa kwamagesi abamba ukushisa akhishelwa emkhathini yimisebenzi yethu yezimboni, ezolimo, ezokuthutha, njll. Noma kunjalo, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu akuthinti wonke amazwe ngokulingana ngoba isebenza ngokuya ngezici zemvelo namandla okugcina ukushisa kwegesi ngalinye lokushisa. Ngabe ufuna ukwazi kabanzi ngayo?

Izici ezithinta isimo sezulu

ukuncibilika okubangelwa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu nokwenyuka kwamazinga okushisa omhlaba

Njengoba sazi, umphumela wokubamba ukushisa ungokwemvelo futhi uyadingeka ngokuphelele empilweni emhlabeni wethu. Luhlelo olulinganiselayo lokudlulisa amandla kanye noguquko emkhathini, ebusweni bomhlaba nasezilwandle. Ngenxa yomphumela wokubamba ukushisa, isimo sezulu soMhlaba sihlala sizinzile futhi sinokushisa okujwayelekile okwenza kube nokuhlalwa. Lokhu kuzinza kwenzeka ngenxa yenani lamandla uMhlaba awutholayo ilingana naleyo enikela ngayo. Lokhu kubangela ibhalansi yamandla elinganiselayo.

Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yabantu kanye nemisebenzi yethu ekhipha amagesi abamba ukushisa emkhathini, lokhu kulinganiswa kwamandla kuba okungalingani. Lapho amandla aphelele agciniwe emakhulu, kufudumeza futhi uma kungenye indlela ezungezile, ukupholisa. Endabeni yethu, singabona kalula ukuthi inani lamandla agcinwe nguMhlaba likhulu kakhulu kunalelo elikhishwa yi-greenhouse gas emissions eligcina ukushisa emkhathini.

Ukuhlungwa kwamagesi abamba ukushisa kuye kwanda emkhathini kusukela ngo-1750 ngokuqala kwenguquko yezimboni. Yilapho-ke lapho khona ukushiswa kwamafutha ezinsalela ezifana namalahle no-oyela kwaqala ukondla izinjini zomlilo zezimboni nezokuthutha. Lokhu kukhishwa okungalawuleki kwamagesi abamba ukushisa emkhathini kubangela ukulinganiselwa kwamandla okuhle ohlelweni loMhlaba-mkhathi. Lokho kusho ukuthi, kugcinwa ukushisa okuningi kunokubuyiselwa emkhathini.

Ukushintshashintsha kwemvelo esimweni sezulu

Ukushintshashintsha kwemvelo nokushintshashintsha kwezinto njengokufana ne-El Niño

Abantu abaningi bahlobanisa imijikelezo yezulu noma ezinye izenzakalo zezulu zezinhlobo ezahlukahlukene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Kuyiqiniso ukuthi ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kwandisa imvamisa namandla wezigameko zezulu ezeqile, kepha izinguquko zesimo sezulu ezibangelwa ukungalingani kwamanani ezilinganiso zamandla akufanele zididaniswe nokushintshashintsha kwemvelo kwesimo sezulu.

Eqinisweni, ukukhombisa ukuthi lokhu kuliqiniso, kufanele kushiwo ukuthi, noma ngezikhathi lapho isimo sezulu sizinzile, izinhlelo ezakha isimo sezulu somhlaba ziguquguquka ngokwemvelo. Imvamisa, lokhu kushintshashintsha kubizwa ngokuthi ama-oscillations ngoba ahluka phakathi kwezifundazwe ezimbili eziyinhloko.

Lokhu kushayisana kungaba nokuhambisana okukhulu nomthelela esimweni sezulu kokubili esifundeni nasemhlabeni jikelele. Izibonelo ezaziwa kakhulu zalawa ma-oscillations Umfana nentombazane. I-El Niño ibangela ukufudumala okubonakalayo kobuso bolwandle enkabeni nasempumalanga yenkabazwe yePacific, ehlala kathathu noma kane. Lapho izinga lokushisa lale ndawo yasolwandle lehla ngaphansi kwamazinga ajwayelekile, lo mkhuba ubizwa ngeLa Niña.

Ngabe ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuthinta ini?

Isomiso esibangelwe ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu senza ukulima kube nzima

Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kunemiphumela ehlukahlukene edala imithelela ehlukile ku:

  • Imvelo: Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuhlasela imvelo, kunciphisa ukwehlukahlukana futhi kwenze kube nzima ngezinhlobo eziningi ukuthi ziphile. Iphinde iguqule ukugcinwa kwekhabhoni emjikelezweni futhi ihlukanise indawo yokuhlala yohlobo ngalunye. Izindawo ezihlukanisiwe ziyizingozi ezinkulu izilwane nezitshalo okufanele zibhekane nazo nokuthi, kwesinye isikhathi, kungasho ukuphela kwezinhlobo.
  • Izinhlelo zabantu: Ngenxa yemiphumela emibi enayo emkhathini, imvula, amazinga okushisa, njll. Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuhlasela amasistimu womuntu kubangele ukulahleka kokusebenza kwezolimo. Isibonelo, izilimo eziningi zilinyazwa yisomiso esibi kakhulu noma azikwazi ukutshalwa ngenxa yamazinga okushisa aphezulu, kudingeka ukujikeleza kwezitshalo, izinambuzane ziyanda, njll. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isomiso sandisa ukushoda kwamanzi okuphuza okunisela, ukuhlinzeka amadolobha, ukuwasha imigwaqo, ukuhlobisa, imboni, njll. Futhi ngesizathu esifanayo, kubangela ukulimala empilweni, ukuvela kwezifo ezintsha ...
  • Izinhlelo zasemadolobheni: Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuthinta nezinhlelo zasemadolobheni, kubangele ukuthi izindlela zokuhamba noma imizila iguqulwe, ubuchwepheshe obusha kufanele buthuthukiswe noma bufakwe ezakhiweni futhi jikelele kuthinta indlela yokuphila
  • Izinhlelo zezomnotho: Ongakusho ngezinhlelo zezomnotho. Ngokusobala, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuthinta ukukhiqizwa kwamandla, ukukhiqiza, izimboni ezisebenzisa imali yemvelo ...
  • Izinhlelo zomphakathi: Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuthinta nezinhlelo zomphakathi ezibangela ushintsho ekufudukeni, okuholela ezimpini nasezingxabanweni, kwephula ukulingana, njll.

Njengoba sibona, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuyinto esithintayo ezimpilweni zethu zansuku zonke nakwasizungezile.

Amandla okugcina igesi yokushisa

Amagesi abamba ukushisa agcina ukushisa emkhathini futhi andise amazinga okushisa omhlaba

Lapho sesike sahlaziya ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kusithinta kanjani, sizogxila ekutheni yimaphi amagesi akhishwa kakhulu namandla awo okugcina ukushisa. Lokhu kubalulekile ukwazi ngoba ngokwazi kwethu okuningi ngalezi gesi, izici ezingaphezulu lapho singazama ukunciphisa ukwanda komphumela wokushisa.

Amagesi abamba ukushisa (i-GHG) angamagesi okulandela umkhondo amunca futhi akhiphe imisebe yegagasi elide. Zizungeza uMhlaba ngokwemvelo futhi, ngaphandle kwazo emkhathini, izinga lokushisa kweplanethi belizokwehla ngama-33 degrees. Isivumelwano saseKyoto yamukelwa ngo-1997 futhi yaqala ukusebenza ngo-2005, yayihlanganisa la magesi ayisikhombisa abamba ukushisa njengabaluleke kakhulu:

  • I-Carbon dioxide (CO2): Igesi ngalinye elibamba ukushisa linikezwe iyunithi ngokuya ngomthamo wokugcina ukushisa osemkhathini. Leyunithi ibizwa ngokuthi yi-Global Warming Potential (GWP). I-CO2 ine-1 CFM futhi ukukhishwa kwayo kuhambelana no-76% wokukhishwa okuphelele. Ingxenye ye-CO2 ekhishwa emkhathini imuncwa yizilwandle kanye ne-biosphere. Yonke enye i-CO2 engagxiliwe ihlala emkhathini iminyaka eyikhulu noma eyizinkulungwane.
  • IMethane (CH4): Igesi iMethane igesi yesibili ebamba ukushisa, enikela ngo-16% wokukhishwa okuphelele. I-PCM yayo ingama-25, okungukuthi, igcina ukushisa okuphindwe izikhathi ezingama-25 kune-CO2, yize ukugxila kwayo emoyeni kuphansi kakhulu. Umjikelezo wayo wempilo mfushane, awuthathi cishe iminyaka eyi-12 esemkhathini.
  • I-nitrous oxide (N2O): Ugesi obamba ukushisa obhekele u-6% wakho konke ukukhishwa. Ine-GWP engama-298, yize kumele kushiwo ukuthi u-60% we-N2O emkhathini uvela emithonjeni yemvelo efana nezintaba-mlilo. Inomjikelezo wempilo cishe weminyaka eyi-114.
  • Amagesi akhanyayo: Amandla ayo wokugcina nokugcina ukushisa angaba namandla aphindwe ngama-23.000 kunalawo e-CO2. Bahlala emkhathini iminyaka engafika ku-50.000 XNUMX.

Izinguquko ezibonwayo emvuleni yomhlaba yonyaka

Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuholela ekwandeni kwezikhukhula

Ukubukwa kukhombisa ukuthi njengamanje kukhona izinguquko kunani, umfutho, imvamisa nohlobo lwemvula. Lezi zici zemvula ngokuvamile zibonisa ukwehluka okukhulu kwemvelo; futhi izenzakalo ezinjenge-El Niño nokunye ukushintsha kwemvelo kwesimo sezulu zinethonya eliphawulekayo.

Ekhulwini leminyaka elidlule, kodwa-ke, kuye kwavezwa ukuthambekela kwesikhathi eside kunani lemvula, kakhulu ngokwengeziwe ezingxenyeni ezisempumalanga yeNyakatho neNingizimu Melika, enyakatho yeYurophu, enyakatho nasenkabeni ye-Asia, kepha kuyivelakancane. eSahel, eningizimu ye-Afrika, eMedithera naseningizimu ye-Asia. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuye kwabonwa ukwanda okujwayelekile kwezimo zemvula enkulu, ngisho nasezindaweni lapho inani lemvula selinciphile.

Umthelela wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu e-Afrika

Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kwandisa isomiso

I-Afrika ingelinye lamazwekazi asengozini enkulu ekushintsheni kwesimo sezulu. Iningi le-Afrika lizothola imvula encane, ngesifunda esiphakathi nesempumalanga kuphela esithola imvula eyengeziwe. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi kuzoba nokwanda ezindaweni ezomile nezingenamanzi e-Afrika phakathi kuka-5% no-8% kuze kube ngu-2080. Abantu bazophinde bahlupheke ngokwanda kwengcindezi yamanzi ngenxa yesomiso kanye nokuntuleka kwamanzi okubangelwa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu. Lokhu kuzolimaza umkhiqizo wezolimo nokutholakala kokudla kuzoba nzima ngokwengeziwe.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle kuzothinta amadolobha amakhulu asezindaweni ezisogwini eziphansi, njenge-Alexandria, Cairo, Lomé, Cotonou, Lagos naseMassawa.

Umthelela wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu e-Asia

Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kubanga ukuncibilika eChina

Imithelela ngaphandle kwe-Afrika izobonakala e-Asia. Isibonelo, ukuncibilika kwezinguzunga zeqhwa kuzokwandisa izikhukhula namadwala, futhi kuzothinta imithombo yamanzi yaseTibet, India neBangladesh; Lokhu kuzodala nokwehla kokugeleza kwemifula nokutholakala kwamanzi ahlanzekile, njengoba izinguzunga zeqhwa zincipha. Ngonyaka ka-2050, abantu abangaphezu kwezigidigidi ezi-1000 bangabhekana nokushoda kwamanzi. INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, ikakhulukazi izifunda ezinamadolobha amakhulu agcwele ngokweqile, zisengozini yezikhukhula. Cishe u-30% wemifula yamakhorali yase-Asia kulindeleke ukuthi inyamalale eminyakeni engama-30 ezayo ngenxa yezingcindezi ezahlukahlukene nokuguquka kwesimo sezulu. Izinguquko ezimvula zizodala ukwanda kwezifo zohudo, ikakhulu ezihambisana nezikhukhula nesomiso.

Kungakhuphula futhi indawo yokusatshalaliswa komiyane we-malaria futhi ngaleyo ndlela kuthinte abantu abaningi base-Asia.

Imiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu eLatin America

Ezolimo eLatin America zizohlupheka ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu

Ukuhlehla kwezinguzunga zeqhwa kule ndawo kanye nokwehla okulandelayo kwemvula kungaholela ekwehleni kwamanzi atholakalayo kwezolimo, ukusetshenziswa kanye nokukhiqizwa kwamandla. Ngokushoda kwamanzi atholakalayo, umkhiqizo wezitshalo zokudla nawo uzokwehla futhi lokhu kungaholela ezinkingeni zokutholakala kokudla.

Ngenxa yokuqothulwa kwezindawo eziningi ezishisayo, iLatin America ingathola ukulahleka okuphawulekayo kokwehlukahlukana kwezinto eziphilayo. Ukwehla komswakama kulindeleke ukuthi kubangele a ukushintshwa kancane kancane kwamahlathi ashisayo ngama-savanna empumalanga ye-Amazonia. Esinye isimo semvelo esengozini yokutholakala eCaribbean yimifula yamakhorali, okuyikhaya lezinsiza eziningi zasolwandle. Ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle kuzokhulisa ubungozi bokukhukhula ezindaweni ezisezindaweni eziphansi, ikakhulukazi eCaribbean.

Umthelela wokushintsha kwesimo sezulu eziqhingini ezincane

I-Caribbean nezinye iziqhingi ezincane zizothinteka ngokukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle

Iziqhingi eziningi ezincane, ngokwesibonelo eCaribbean nasePacific, zizothola ukuncipha kwemithombo yamanzi kuze kube sezingeni lokuthi zingakwazi ukuhlangabezana nezidingo ngesikhathi semvula ephansi. Ukunyuka kwamazinga olwandle kuzodala ukungena kwamanzi anosawoti emithonjeni yamanzi angenasawoti ngakho-ke ngeke kusakwazi ukuphuza. Kanjalo Ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle kulindeleke ukuthi kuqinise izikhukhula, ukuqhuma kwesiphepho, ukuguguleka nezinye izinto eziyingozi ezisogwini, okubeka engcupheni ingqalasizinda ebalulekile, izindawo zokuhlala nezindawo ezidingekayo ukuze kusinde imiphakathi eyiziqhingi. Ukuwohloka kwezimo zasogwini nokukhishwa kwamakhorali kuzonciphisa inani lalezi zifunda njengendawo yezivakashi.

Njengoba uzobona, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuthinta izindawo ezahlukahlukene ngezindlela ezahlukahlukene kepha kunokuthile okufana ngakho: kubhubhisa konke okusendleleni yakho.

 


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  1. Ubhekele imininingwane: Miguel Ángel Gatón
  2. Inhloso yedatha: Lawula Ugaxekile, ukuphathwa kwamazwana.
  3. Ukusemthethweni: Imvume yakho
  4. Ukuxhumana kwemininingwane: Imininingwane ngeke idluliselwe kubantu besithathu ngaphandle kwesibopho esisemthethweni.
  5. Isitoreji sedatha: Idatabase ebanjwe yi-Occentus Networks (EU)
  6. Amalungelo: Nganoma yisiphi isikhathi ungakhawulela, uthole futhi ususe imininingwane yakho.