Isivumelwano SaseParis sihlose ukunciphisa ukukhishwa kwegesi engcolisa ukushisa okuvela kuwo wonke amazwe angamalungu ukulwa nokuguquka kwesimo sezulu. Ukuze wenze lokhu kufanele gwema ukukhulisa amazinga okushisa aphakathi komhlaba angaphezu kuka-2 ° C.
Ithimba labaphenyi abavela eMnyangweni Wezomnotho Osetshenzisiwe kanye ne-Energy, Economics kanye ne-Systems Dynamics Group yase-University of Valladolid (UVa) (Spain) lihlaziye iziphakamiso zamazwe ayi-188 engqungqutheleni yokugcina yezulu yaseParis (COP21) , ekunciphiseni ukukhishwa kwegesi ekhipha ukushisa. Ngabe ufuna ukwazi imiphumela yalolu phenyo nesimo esilindele?
Inhloso Yesivumelwano SaseParis
Abaphenyi abahlaziye iziphakamiso zokunciphisa ukungcola baye baxwayisa ukuthi, esimeni esinethemba elikhulu lapho kufinyelelwa khona zonke iziphakamiso, amazinga okushisa azophakama phakathi kwama-3 no-4 degrees ngo-2050. Ngamanye amagama, imizamo yesiVumelwano saseParis, njengoba injalo njengamanje, ayenele ukumisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nezinguquko zaso ezingalungiseki emvelweni yomhlaba.
Kumphakathi wezesayensi, ukukhuphuka kwamadigri amabili emazingeni okushisa aphakathi komhlaba kuyisithiyo esiqinisekile kuzinguquko ezinqala kakhulu ezingaba khona. Ukukhuphuka kwamazinga okushisa ayilandeli iphethini yomugqa, kepha iyachaza futhi kusuka kumzuzwana othile kuqhubeke, kuzosebenza imishini ethile ezodala lokhu kukhuphuka kuphakame kakhulu. Lesi sikhathi kungaba lapho iqhwa eliseNyakatho Pole ligcina licibilikile, i-albedo yoMhlaba izoshintsha, nolwandle luzomunca ukushisa okwengeziwe, kubangele amazinga okushisa anyuke ngokushesha.
Ukuze kungafinyeleli ekukhuleni kwamazinga okushisa amaphakathi njengokuthi kubangele ushintsho olungalungiseki emhlabeni, wonke amazwe ethulwe Iminikelo Elindelwe Kuzwelonke. Lezi yizinhlelo ezahlukahlukene ezenziwayo ezibeka inani lokukhishwa kwegesi izwe ngalinye elizonciphisa kanye nezinqubomgomo ezizodingeka ukufeza leyo nhloso.
“Isivumelwano saseParis sishiya konke ezandleni zeziphakamiso ezenziwe yilowo nalowo mazwe. Kusuka kumodeli yokubusa kwesimo sezulu ehlukahlukene, njengoba yayinjalo Isivumelwano saseKyoto, kokunye okusekelwe kubumbano kanye nokuzithandela, ngoba izwe ngalinye linesibopho sokwenza isiphakamiso kepha singasilandeli, futhi alikho iqembu langaphandle eliphethe ukulawula ukuhambisana nalo ", kugcizelela uJaime Nieto, umcwaningi e-UVa.
Ukuhlaziywa kweziphakamiso ngamazwe
Ithimba labacwaningi lihlaziye iziphakamiso zamazwe zokunciphisa ukungcola ngombono wezepolitiki nowezimali. Ngale ndlela bangakwazi Linganisa ukwehluka kokukhishwa emhlabeni jikelele okuzofaka ukusetshenziswa kwalezi ziphakamiso kanye negalelo lazo ekulweni nokuguquka kwesimo sezulu.
Lapho iziphakamiso sezihlaziyiwe, kuphothulwe ukuthi, uma konke kugcwaliseka (yize kungabophi), izinga lokushisa eliphakathi komhlaba izokhuphuka phakathi kwama-3 no-4 degrees, ukwanda okungacishe kuphindwe kabili inhloso yokuqala yamadigri amabili abhekwa "njengaphephile."
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, Esivumelwaneni saseParis, iziphakamiso ezingafihli lutho azibheki imithelela engaba khona ukukhula komnotho wamazwe. Abaphenyi babale ukukhishwa okungokoqobo izwe ngalinye elizoba nalo ngo-2030, ngoba lesi Sivumelwano sibeka umkhawulo walo nyaka. Izwe ngalinye lingakhipha isilinganiso esilinganiselwa kuma-37,8% ngaphezulu kunangesikhathi sika-2005-2015. I-China, njengamanje eyi-GHG emitter enkulu ne-India, esendaweni yesihlanu, bazoba nesibopho cishe sama-20% walokhu kukhishwa
"Izinhlobo ze-Systems Dynamics zisivumela ukuthi sihlaziye okuzokwenzeka ngokuzayo ngokuya ngamathrendi futhi sihlole izimo ezahlukahlukene ngokuya ngezinqubomgomo ezisunguliwe. Kithina bekubalulekile ukuthi sihlaziye isivumelwano esibaluleke kakhulu ebesikade singesokushintshela kwezomnotho ikhabhoni ephansi eminyakeni yakamuva, Isivumelwano SaseParis ”, kuphetha uNieto.