Iziphumo zotshintsho lwemozulu zinokutshintsha amaqondo obushushu aphakathi komhlaba. Iziphumo kunye neziphumo zokutshintsha kwamaqondo okushisa okungaqhelekanga kunokubonwa kwinqanaba elithile.
Lazi iqondo lobushushu eliza kuba kunyaka we-2017 inokuba ibaluleke kakhulu kwizenzo ezizayo kwimozulu yeplanethi. Ngaba sinokwazi ukuba ngawaphi amaqondo obushushu asilindeleyo kulo nyaka?
Iirekhodi zobushushu
Iirekhodi zobushushu zika-2016 azikagqitywa. Nangona kunjalo, imikhwa inokujongwa ukuze ikwazi ukuqikelela ukuba unyaka wethu unokuba njani. Njengoko sihlalutya imeko yeqondo lobushushu ngo-2016, sinokuqinisekisa, ozakuba ngunyaka ofudumeleyo okoko abantu barekhodile amaqondo obushushu. Kude kube kutshanje, u-2014 wawuthathwa njengowona nyaka ushushu embalini. Unyaka ka-2015 uhlala uzinze noko, kodwa kwizinto ezinokubonwa kumanqanaba obushushu ka-2016, uya kuba ngowona nyaka ushushu osaziwayo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku.
Imilinganiselo yobushushu behlabathi yaqala ukwenziwa ngokuchaneka ngokuthe ngqo I-135 iminyaka edlulileyo kwaye akukho mntu wayeza kulindela ukuba imeko yamaqondo obushushu ehlabathi izakulandela indlela ethe ngqo eya kunyuko hayi ukuhla-hluka njengoko bekusoloko kunjalo.
Amawaka ososayensi kwihlabathi liphela ahlalutya idatha eqokelelweyo kunye nokusebenzisa iimodeli ezahlukeneyo ukuze bakwazi yenza uqikelelo kwindaleko nakwindlela ezihamba ngayo amaqondo obushushu ukongeza kwezinye izikhombisi zotshintsho lwemozulu.
Okwangoku, ngokusekwe kwidatha ekhoyo, kunokulindeleka ukuba unyaka we-2017 ube ngomnye unyaka oshushu kakhulu kwihlabathi liphela, nangona kungenakulindeleka Ngamana ungaphinda ube ngunyaka ophumeza irekhodi lehlabathi kumaqondo obushushu aphezulu ngenxa yesiphumo esongezelelekileyo esibangelwe sisenzeko se El Niño okoko kulindelwe iziphumo ekucuthweni kokukhutshwa kwegesi egreenhouse ngamazwe athe aqinisekisa isiVumelwano saseParis.
Umthombo: Aemet
Iqondo lobushushu lehlabathi ngo-2017 kulindeleke ukuba iphakathi ko-0,63 ° C no-0,87 ° C ngaphezulu komndilili wexesha lesimo sezulu (1961-1990), ngoqikelelo oluphakathi lwe-0,75 ° C, izazinzulu zithi.
Ukwanda kwamaqondo obushushu aphakathi kwihlabathi kuye kwanyusa isantya ukusukela ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane yama-XNUMX kwaye kungenxa yeekhompyuter ze Wenza iHhovisi Ngayo unokwenza uqikelelo oluthembekileyo nangakumbi kunye nokuchaneka okukhulu.
Unyaka ka-2017 kulindeleke ukuba ubeshushu kakhulu njengakwiminyaka edlulileyo, kodwa ngenxa yokungabikho kweziphumo kumaqondo obushushu esiqhelo El Niñokulindeleke ukunyuka okuncinci. Kwiimeko ezidlulileyo, uqikelelo olwenziwe ziikhompyuter zeMet Office belusondele kakhulu kumaqondo obushushu athe enzeka enyakeni. Uqikelelo lweOfisi yeMet kuqikelelwa ukunyuka kobushushu phakathi kwe-0,72 ° C kunye ne-0,96 ° C kunye noqikelelo oluphakathi lwe-0,84 ° C (xa kuthelekiswa nomndilili we-961-1990). Ukungabikho kwedatha ukusukela kuDisemba ophelileyo, kuqikelelwa ukuba iqondo lobushushu lehlabathi lenyuke nge-0,86 ° C kunyaka ophelileyo, oko kukuthi, kuphela yi-0,02 ° C eyahlukileyo kuqikelelo lwe-Met Office).
Izizathu zokuba ubushushu behlabathi bukhuphuke
Amaqondo obushushu ehlabathi anyuka ngokukhawuleza kakhulu kwaye afuna ukumiswa ngandlela thile. Kodwa ngaba siyazi ukuba kutheni amaqondo obushushu esanda?
Ewe, esinye sezizathu zokuba kutheni i-2016 yeyona ishushu embalini kungenxaIziphumo zesenzeko se El Niño enegalelo ekunyukeni kwamaqondo obushushu malunga ne-0,2 ° C.
Ukuphumla kobushushu behlabathi kufanelekile ukwanda koxinaniso lweegesi zegreenhouse emoyeni, Kubangelwa yimisi evela kumzi mveliso kunye nezothutho. Nangona isenzeko se El Niño ayizukusebenza kwaye ichaphazele amaqondo obushushu ehlabathi ngo-2017, kulo nyaka iyakuba yenye yezona zishushu kwimbali yoMhlaba yakutshanje.
Kule kota yokuqala ka-2017, i-Aemet ibonisa ngendlela eqhelekileyo ukuba “kukho amathuba amakhulu okuba amaqondo obushushu afikelele kumaxabiso aphezulu kunesiqhelo kulo lonke elaseSpain ”. Ngokuphathelene neemvula kunye nokuwa kwekhephu, i-Aemet ibonisa ukuba "kunokwenzeka ukuba imvula iphezulu kunesiqhelo kwisahlulo sempuma yeIberia Peninsula kunye neBalearic Islands; kuyo yonke iSpain akukho mahluko ubonakalayo ngokubhekisele kumyinge wemozulu ka-1981-2000 ”.