Ukwanda kwamaqondo obushushu ehlabathi angaphezulu kwamaqondo amabini yinto enokubangela utshintsho olungenakulungiseka kwiplanethi yethu yonke. Uluntu lwenzululwazi lwenze iimodeli ezahlukeneyo ezinokuqikelela ukuba ziya kuba yintoni iziphumo ukuba amaqondo obushushu ehlabathi aphakama ngaphezulu kweedigri ezimbini. Iziphumo ezifunyenweyo zikhuthaza izazinzulu malunga nobuzaza bemeko esikuyo.
Nangona kunjalo, namhlanje iinzame zokunciphisa ubushushu behlabathi ukuya kuthi ga ngaphantsi kweedigri ezimbini ngaphambi konyaka wama-2100 zishiya kungafuneki. Le yeyona njongo iphambili yesiVumelwano saseParis, kodwa ayiziziphumo ezilindelekileyo ukuba amazwe ebeya kuyizalisekisa.
Amaqondo obushushu aya enyuka
Njengokuba iminyaka ihamba, i-CO2 concentrations igqithe kwimida emiselwe "njengekhuselekileyo" kuluntu lwenzululwazi. Masikhumbule ukuba i-CO2 inamandla okubambisa ubushushu obomeleleyo ngokwaneleyo ukuze ikwazi ukonyusa amaqondo obushushu azo zonke iimbombo zomhlaba. Ngokwanda kwamaqondo obushushu, uzinzo kunye nokuma kwendalo kwazo zonke iinkqubo ezenza uMhlaba ziyaguqulwa kwaye Banokwenza utshintsho olungenakulungiseka.
IsiVumelwano saseParis sibeke eyona njongo iphambili yokuphepha ukunyuka kwamanqanaba amabini kwiqondo lobushushu emhlabeni. Nangona kunjalo, nokuba bekuzalisekisiwe, iithemometha ziya kunyuka nge-2,7 degrees ukuba izibophelelo ezintsha okanye amanyathelo ezopolitiko anamandla ayenziwa.
I-Arhente yaMandla yaMazwe ngaMazwe (i-IEA) iye yalumkisa kwingxelo yonyaka yeembono zetekhnoloji ukuba ngemigaqo-nkqubo yokukhutshwa ekhoyo namhlanje kunye naleyo ibhengeziweyo, ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni dayoksayidi (eyona nto inoxanduva lokutshintsha kwemozulu ) iya kuphakama embindini wenkulungwane kwaye ziya kuba yi-16% ngaphezulu kwezo zakhutshwa ngo-2014 ngowama-2060. Oku kugxila okuphezulu kwe-CO2 emoyeni kungabangela ukonyuka ngeqondo le-2,7 kwiqondo lobushushu kwihlabathi liphela ngenkulungwane, eya kuthi ibangele ukungazinzi kwemozulu enkulu.
IEA iyabona "ngobuchule kunokwenzeka" - umda ophakama kubushushu ukuya kwii-1,75 degrees, i-midpoint yoluhlu phakathi kwe-1,5 kunye ne-2 izidanga ezibekwe luluntu lwamanye amazwe kwiSivumelwano saseParis ngoDisemba 2015, nalapho uMongameli wase-US, uDonald Trump, wabhengeza ukuba ilizwe lakhe liza kulahla.
Zininzi iingcali eziye zafunda ngotshintsho lwemozulu kwaye ziye zahlalutya imeko yangoku eziqinisekisa ukuba umsantsa wokumisa utshintsho lwemozulu kunye neenzame ezenziwayo ukwenza oko zinkulu kakhulu. Oko kukuthi, nakwisiVumelwano saseParis esisebenzayo kunye nawo onke amazwe (kubandakanya i-US kwimeko yokucinga) ukuhlangabezana neenjongo zabo kuya kuba Akwanelanga ukunqanda ukwanda kweedigri ezimbini. Ukongeza, iingcali ziyangqina ukuba kunyanzelekile ukonyusa isantya ezenziwa ngaso izinto ezichasene notshintsho lwemozulu, kuba kwinqanaba lemigaqo-nkqubo ekhoyo, iziphumo bezingazukufezekiswa kwangexesha.
Ukukhutshwa kwezinto kuya kunyuka
Ukukhutshwa kwegesi eluhlaza kubangelwa kukusetyenziswa kunye nokutshiswa kwezibaso. Ngesi sizathu, kufuneka kuphuhliswe itekhnoloji ecocekileyo kunye nehlaziyiweyo enceda ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa. I-IEA iqinisekisa ukuba ukuba kukho ukuhanjiswa okukhawulezileyo kobuchwephesha obuhlaziyiweyo nobucocekileyo, imeko "engathathi hlangothi" kwi-CO2 ukukhutshwa inokucingwa ngo-2060. Nangona kunjalo, ungenzi mpazamo. Akukho lizwe liza kukhula ngokukhawuleza kwizinto ezinokuphinda zenziwe okanye kwitekhnoloji ecocekileyo enokuthintela utshintsho lwemozulu ngexesha.
Amanyathelo okusebenza kwamandla aya kuba negalelo ngama-38% ukunciphisa ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwe-CO2 kunye namandla ahlaziyekayo nge-30%. Oku kwenza ukuphuculwa kwetekhnoloji ebamba kwaye igcine ikhabhoni iyimfuneko ukuba sifuna ukutshintsha utshintsho lwemozulu.
Okokugqibela, ukuba sifuna ukunqanda ukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu aphakathi kweedigri ezimbini, ukukhutshwa kwe-CO2 ngo-2060 kufanele kube malunga ne-40% isezantsi kunanamhlanje.