Nangona kukho indawo enkulu kubemi behlabathi engekayazi malunga notshintsho lwemozulu kunye neziphumo zalo ezimbi kunye nabanye, njengoMongameli uDonald Trump, akakholelwa nakuko, ukuthintela ubushushu behlabathi ngowona mceli mngeni mkhulu ojamelene neentlobo zabantu kule nkulungwane yama-XNUMX.
Ukuzama ukunqanda le ntlekele eya kuthi ibangele ukungazinzi ngokupheleleyo kwiplanethi, isiVumelwano saseParis saqala ukusebenza. Injongo yayo ibaluleke kakhulu kwaye iyimfuneko kwihlabathi: ukunciphisa umyinge wokwanda kwamaqondo obushushu oMhlaba ngesi-2 ° C xa kuthelekiswa namanqanaba angaphambi kwemizi-mveliso kwaye uqhubeke nemizamo yokunciphisa oku kwanda kwaye uzinzise ngo-1,5 ° C. Uphando olutsha lubonisa ukuba kuya kusiba nzima ukufikelela kwezi njongo. Yintoni esinokuyenza?
Ukunciphisa ukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu kuya kusiba nzima
Uphononongo lweenkcukacha-manani lwenziwe kwiiyunivesithi ezahlukeneyo zaseMelika (qaphela into ehlekisayo, kuba umongameli wabo akakholelwa kutshintsho lwemozulu) olutyhila oko amathuba okuba iplanethi ifikelele kunyuko lwe-2 ° C kwaye ukuhlala ngaloo ndlela yi-5% kuphela. Sele siziphose izandla zethu entloko xa sibona ukuba amathuba okufikelela kuzinzo kwi-1,5 ° C yi-1% kuphela.
Olu phando lupapashwe kwijenali Utshintsho lwemozulu. Phakathi kweziphumo zophononongo kukuba kunokwenzeka ukuba kwinkulungwane ezayo Ubushushu bomhlaba bunyuka phakathi ko-2 ° C no-4,9 ° C. Ngokubanzi, iinjongo ezichazwe kwisiVumelwano saseParis zinamabhongo kwaye ziyinyani. Nangona kunjalo, nokuba kwimeko efanelekileyo ukuba izalisekiswe ngokuchanekileyo, ayinakwanela ukugcina ukufudumala kwehlabathi kungaphantsi kwe-1,5 ° C.
Ukufumanisa ukuba amaqondo obushushu anganyuka njani njengokukhutshwa kwegesi ekhulisa ubushushu ngonyaka wama-2100, izinto ezintathu eziye zaqwalaselwa: lilonke inani labemi behlabathi, imveliso yelizwe egqityiweyo ngomntu ngamnye kunye nemali yokukhutshwa kwekhabhoni ekhutshwa ngumsebenzi ngamnye wezoqoqosho.
Nje ukuba ezi zinto zintathu zichaziweyo kwiimodeli ezixela kwangaphambili amaqondo obushushu njengomsebenzi wokukhutshwa kwehlabathi, kugqityiwe oko iqondo lobushushu eliqhelekileyo leplanethi ekupheleni kwenkulungwane iya kube inyuke nge-3,2 ° C. Bayalumkisa ukuba isantya sokuphungulwa kwekhabhoni dayoksayidi kuxhomekeke kwimisebenzi nganye yezoqoqosho kuya kubaluleka ekupheliseni ubushushu bexesha elizayo.
Esinye isiphelo sesifundo kukuba ukuba amaqondo obushushu aphakathi komhlaba anyuke angaphezulu kwe-1,5 ° C, iintlekele ezibi kakhulu zokusingqongileyo eziza kusokola kumazwe amaninzi ziya kuba zibi kakhulu kunale zangoku.