Amafu phezu kweBombai
Isifundo esitsha sivelisa indlela ungcoliseko oluvelisa ngayo izaqhwithi ezishiya amafu ahlala ixesha elide, amakhulu kunye noxineneyo. Ngexesha lenyanga kaNovemba i Iinkqubo ze-National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), ipapashe ezinye iziphumo ezivala ingxoxo-mpikiswano ende. Zityhila indlela ungcoliseko olukuchaphazela ngayo ukufudumala kwehlabathi. Lo msebenzi uza kunceda ukuphucula ukuchaneka kwemozulu kunye neemodeli zemozulu.
Uninzi lwabaphandi lwalucinga oko ungcoliseko lomoya ibangela amafu emvula amakhulu amakhulu, ahlala ixesha elide ngokwenza ukuba imimoya yesiphango ichaphazeleke kakhulu kwimisinga yomoya, nangokuvelisa ukuhambisa ngaphakathi. Kolu phononongo, uqaphele ukuba ungcoliseko, njengesiganeko, senza amafu azinze kodwa, ngendlela eyahlukileyo kunangaphambili, ngokwehla kobukhulu bamasuntswana omkhenkce kunye nokwehla kobukhulu belifu. Lo mahluko uchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo indlela izazinzulu ezimele ngayo amafu kwiimodeli zemozulu.
Olu phononongo luxolelanisa oko sikubonayo mihla le kunye nokubonisiweyo kwiimodeli zekhompyuter. Ukuqwalaselwa kubonisa amafu amile okweqanda (IComulonimbus) ephezulu kwaye inkulu kwiinkqubo zesiphepho eziqukethe ungcoliseko, kodwa iimodeli azisoloko zibonisa ukuhanjiswa okunamandla, enkosi kolu phononongo siyabona ukuba kutheni.
Ubomi obuyimfihlo bamafu
Anvil okanye Comulonimbus amafu kwindawo engcolileyo
Iimodeli ezixela kwangaphambili imozulu kunye nemozulu ayibuyisi kwakhona ubomi bamafu enkqwithela kakuhle, njengoko emele ngokulinganisa okulula okusilelayo ukunika umfanekiso opheleleyo. Olu lungiso lubi lwadala ingxaki kubaphandi: "Ungcoliseko lubangela amafu anvil ukuba ahlale ixesha elide kunakwisibhakabhaka esikhanyayo", kodwa ngoba?
Esona sizathu sinokubakho sijikeleza ii-aerosol (amasuntswana amancinci endalo okanye imvelaphi yomntu) asebenza njengesiseko samathontsi emafini ukuba enze kuwo. Isibhakabhaka esingcolileyo sineeerosol ezininzi (umsi kunye nenkungu) kunaleyo icocekileyo kwaye oku kuguqulela emanzini amancinci kwisuntswana ngalinye. Ungcoliseko luvelisa amathontsi amaninzi, kodwa luncinci.
Inani elikhulu lamathontsi amancinci atshintsha iimpawu zamafu. Kudala kucingelwa ukuba amathontsi amakhulu kunye namancinci aqala ukusabela kwikhonkco okukhokelela kumafu amakhulu, ahlala ixesha elide endaweni yokubaleka. Amaconsi akhaphukhaphu abangela ukuba amanzi akho anyuke ngokubanda kwaye oku kubanda kukhuphe ubushushu obuqulethwe ngamathontsi kwaye kuvelise utshintsho kubushushu obuvelisa ukuhanjiswa ngaphakathi. Ukuhanjiswa okunzulu ngakumbi kwenza ukuba amathontsi amaninzi anyuke, ngaloo ndlela kwakhiwa ilifu.
Kodwa abaphandi abasoloko bejonga ukuhanjiswa okunzulu ngakumbi okunxulumene namafu amakhulu kunye nokuhlala ixesha elide kwiindawo ezingcolileyo, kubonisa ukuba besilahlekile yinto ekufuneka siyithathele ingqalelo.
Ukusombulula le ngxaki, iqela elinoxanduva lolu phononongo ligqibe kwelokuba lithelekise izivunguvungu zasehlotyeni kunye neemodeli ezenziwe yikhompyuter. Imodeli ibandakanya iipropathi ezibonakalayo zeengqimba zamafu kunye nokukwazi ukubona ukuba i-convection iya yomelela okanye ithambe. Ukulinganisa kolu phando kuthathe iinyanga ezi-6.
I-Convection ayinguye onetyala.
Idatha yaqokelelwa kwiindawo ezintathu ezinamaqondo ohlukeneyo ongcoliseko, ukufuma, kunye nomoya: iitropiki zasentshona Pacific, mpuma China kunye namathafa amakhulu e-Oklahoma. Idatha yafunyanwa kwi-DOE's (iSebe lezaMandla laseMelika) Inkqubo yoPhando lwemozulu ye-ARM.
Ukulinganisa kwaqhutywa kwi-PNNL (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) i-Olympus supercomputer. Le mizekelo yenyanga yesaqhwithi ifana kakhulu namafu abonwayo ngoku, ukumisela ukuba iimodeli ziphinde zawenza amafu ovunguvungu kakuhle.
Ukujonga le mizekelo kwafumaniseka ukuba kuzo zonke iimeko, ungcoliseko lonyusa ubungakanani, ubukhulu kunye nobude bamafu anvil. Kodwa kuphela kwiindawo ezimbini (iitropiki kunye neTshayina) kukujonga okukhulu kokuhanjiswa. E-Oklahoma, ungcoliseko lukhokelele kwindibano yokuthantamisa. Oku kungangqinelani kunye noko bekucingelwe ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kuphakamisa ukuba isizathu asisiyongxaki enkulu.
Ngokujonga ngakumbi iipropathi zamaconsi amanzi kunye neekristali zomkhenkce ngaphakathi kwamafu, iqela lophando lagqiba kwelokuba ungcoliseko luvelise amachaphaza amancinci kunye neekristali zomkhenkce, nokuba ziphi na.
Kwakhona, esibhakabhakeni esicacileyo, amasuntswana omkhenkce anzima kwaye aqengqeleka ngokukhawuleza avela kumafu amafu, ebangela ukuba aphume ngokukhawuleza. Kwisibhakabhaka esingcolileyo, iikristali zomkhenkce zazincinci kwaye zikhaphukhaphu kakhulu ukuba zinganetha, ngaloo ndlela zenza amafu amakhulu, ahlala ixesha elide.
Igalelo kufudumo lwehlabathi.
Kwelinye icala, iqela liqikelele indlela amafu enkqwithela enza ngayo igalelo kwi Ukufudumeza okanye ukupholisa. La mafu apholisa umhlaba emini ngezithunzi zawo kodwa abamba ubushushu njengengubo ebusuku, enza ukuba ubusuku bushushu.
Ukuthathela ingqalelo iimpembelelo zongcoliseko kumafu esichotho, siyaqonda ukuba zinokuchaphazela ubushushu bokugqibela obuqikelelwe ngomhlaba kumashumi eminyaka ezayo. Ukwenza imbonakalo echanekileyo yamafu kwiimodeli zemozulu sisitshixo ekuphuculeni ukuchaneka kwengqikelelo yotshintsho lwemozulu.
Iinkcukacha ezithe xaxe: ICumulonimbus, Ukufumana okubalulekileyo kwii-Atmospheric Particles eziXekweni, Umbane uya usomelela ngokufudumala komhlaba
Umthombo: PNAS