Kule minyaka, imbali yeplanethi yethu yenze utshintsho olukhulu. Abanye bebelulamile kwaye bengcathu, kwaye abanye bebekhohlakele kwaye benoburharha. Ezinye zazo ziye zanento yokwenza nokuphela kwezinto ezininzi eziphilayo. Kodwa kutheni kukho amaxesha apho iintlobo ezininzi ziye zanyamalala? UDaniel Rothman, uprofesa we-geophysics kwiSebe le-Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences e-MIT, eMassachusetts Institute of Technology, usebenzise imathematika ukuphendula lo mbuzo.
Ngokwezibikezelo, Ngama-2100 iilwandlekazi ziya kugcina iigigatoni ezingama-310 zizonke zecarbon dioxide. IGigaton enye iyafana ne-1.000.000.000.000 yeekhilogram (itriliyoni enye). Kwanele ukubangela ukubakho kokuphela kobunzima ukuba akukho nto yenziwe ukuze kumiswe. Esi sisiphelo uRothman afikelele kuso kuthathelwa ingqalelo ukuphazamiseka kwekhabhoni kule minyaka ingama-542 yezigidi idlulileyo.
Sebenzisa izibalo ukuqikelela ikamva
En Uhlalutyo lweminyaka engama-542 yezigidi zokugqibela, inokujongwa Ukuphela kwezinto ezi-5 ezinkulu yenzekile. Inye into abanayo ngokufanayo kukuphazamiseka kwekhabhoni enkulu. Zachaphazela iilwandle kunye nomoya. Ukongeza, njengoko kubonisiwe, olu phazamiseko luye lwaqhubeka kwizigidi zeminyaka, lubangela ukuphela kwezilwanyana ezininzi. Kwimeko yeentlobo zaselwandle, ukuya kuthi ga kwiipesenti ezingama-75 zazo.
Unjingalwazi we-MIT geophysics wazisa kwiphephancwadi i-Science Advances, indlela yemathematika athe wakwazi ngayo ukuchonga imingcele yentlekele. Ukuba le mibundu idlulile, amathuba okuphela kwezinto ezinkulu kakhulu.
Isibonakaliso kwimihla yethu
Ukufikelela kwezi zigqibo, kwafundwa iziganeko ezingama-31 zesotopic ezivela kwiminyaka engama-542 yezigidi zokugqibela. Izinga elibalulekileyo lokuphazamiseka komjikelo wekhabhoni kunye nobukhulu bayo babunxulunyaniswa nobukhulu bexesha lamaxesha apho i-alkalinity yolwandle iguqula kunye notshintsho lwemozulu. Lo ngumda wokuthintela i-acidification yezi zimbini.
Xa omnye wale miqobo mibini ugqithile, kwaqatshelwa ukuba ukuphela kwezinto ezinkulu kuyalandela.. Utshintsho kumjikelo wekhabhoni olwenzeka ngaphezulu kwexesha elide, ukuphela kuyenzeka ukuba olu tshintsho lwenzeka ngesantya esikhawulezileyo kunamandla eendaba okulungisa. Into ebonisa okwenzekayo kumaxesha ethu. Apho amaxabiso ecarbon dioxide enyuka, kwaye imozulu iyatshintsha ngesantya esigqithisileyo, sithetha ngamaxesha.
Ngokuchasene noko, kukothuka okwenzeka kumaxesha amafutshane, isantya sokutshintsha komjikelo wekhabhoni akunamsebenzi. Okwangoku, yintoni efanelekileyo ubungakanani okanye ubungakanani botshintsho, oluchaza ukubakho.
Ifike ngo-2100
URothman uthe kungathatha malunga neminyaka engama-10.000 XNUMX ukuze le meko ikhule ngokupheleleyo. Kodwa kunokwenzeka ukuba nje ukuba imeko ifike, iplanethi ingena kwindawo engaziwayo. Ngokwenene yingxaki leyo. Andifuni ukuthi le nto yenzeka ngengomso, utshilo kwingxelo. «Nditsho ukuba ayilawulwa, umjikelo wekhabhoni uya kungena kummandla ongasenakuphinda uzinze kwaye iziphatha ngendlela ekunzima ukuyichaza. Kwixesha elidlulileyo lomhlaba, olu hlobo lokuziphatha lunxulunyaniswa nokuphela kobunzima. '
Umphandi ngaphambili wayesebenza ekuphelisweni kwexesha lokugqibela kwePermian. Elona xesha linzima kwimbali yoMhlaba elinama-95% eentlobo zezinto eziphilayo, labona ukubetha ngamandla kwekhabhoni. Ukusukela ngoko, iincoko ezininzi nabahlobo kunye nabantu abamngqongileyo ziye zamkhuthaza ukuba enze olu phando. Ukusuka apha, njengoko yena ngokwakhe esithi "ndahlala phantsi ngenye imini yehlobo kwaye ndazama ukucinga ngendlela umntu anokuyifunda ngayo le nkqubo." Kwenzeka ntoni kwizigidi zeminyaka eyadlulayo, besebenzisa izikali zamaxesha amakhulu, kwinto namhlanje ebonakala ngathi ithatha nje iinkulungwane ezimbalwa.
Iplanethi yethu inebhalansi. Nokuba bubushushu, imozulu, ungcoliseko, amanqanaba ecarbon, njl. Ibhalansi, etshintsha ngokukhawuleza kunangaphambili kubonakala ngathi ibethwe. Ndizokwazi ukuyeka? Kwaye ukuba akunjalo, singachaza njani ukuba asikammisi okwangoku kwaye simbonile efika?