Umlo imo iyatshintsha kubaluleke kakhulu ekusindisweni kohlobo lwabantu emhlabeni. Enkosi kwizazinzulu ezininzi kunye nophando oluphindaphindiweyo esinokufunda ngakumbi malunga neziphumo ezibi zotshintsho lwemozulu, ukufudumala kwehlabathi, ukwanda kweziganeko zendalo, njl.
Kuyo yonke le nto, IBBVA Foundation iwonge amabhaso ayo oMda woLwazi kuTshintsho lweMozulu kwii-Climatologists uSyukuro Manabe noJames Hansen. Yintoni le ifunyenwe ngaba bantu okanye bayibonelela kwisayensi yemozulu ukuze bafumane le mbasa?
Ukuphuhliswa kweemodeli zokukhupha igesi
USerukuro Manabe ozelwe eJapan noJames Hansen eUnited States bangoovulindlela kuphuhliso lweemodeli zezibalo ezisetyenziselwa ukubala ingqokelela yeegesi ezikhutshwe yimisebenzi yoqoqosho lomntu emoyeni. Ukongeza kokubala, baqikelela iimpembelelo zabo kwimozulu yoMhlaba.
UManabe ngexesha lomsebenzi wakhe, uchithe ixesha lakhe elininzi kwi uLawulo lweLizwe lwe-Oceanic kunye ne-Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) kunye neYunivesithi yasePrinceton. Apho waqala ukucacisa kunye nokuphuhlisa iimodeli zakhe zamanani ukuze alingise indlela yokuziphatha kweatmosfera ngeminyaka yoo-60.
Njengoko itekhnoloji iphuhlisiwe, uManabe wafaka izinto zedijithali kuphando lwakhe esebenzisa iikhompyuter. Oku kwamnceda ukuba enze imodeli yokuqala yokujikeleza kwendalo. Ndiyabulela kule modeli wakwazi ukuyifumana loo nto ukwanda koxinzelelo lwe-CO2 kunyuse ubushushu behlabathi kwaye ukuba olu xinizelelo belunokuphindeka kabini kunokuba lwalunjalo ngela xesha, iqondo lobushushu lehlabathi beliya kunyuka ngamanqanaba amabini, libe neziphumo ezibi kwindalo kunye iinkqubo ezingenakulungiswa.
Kwelinye icala, uHansen, owazalwa emva kweminyaka eli-10, wathatha ireferensi evela kuManabe kwaye waqalisa umsebenzi wakhe wophando owamkhokelela ekubeni enze imodeli entsha kunye nendlela yokwenza umlinganiso. ukwanda kobushushu beMhlaba ngenxa yokuqokelelwa kwe-CO2 emoyeni. Oku kunyuka kungqinelana nee-4 degrees ngokubhekisele kwixesha langaphambi kokushishina, ngaloo ndlela kulandela imeko yangoku.
Baye bakwazi ukuqikelela utshintsho olwenziwe kukutshintsha kwemozulu
Ezinye izizathu zokuba iqabane lixabisile ngokunikezela ibhaso kwezi nzulu-nzulu kukuqikelela kunye neendlela zohlalutyo, ezihambele phambili nophando kunye netekhnoloji, ezimelana novavanyo lwexesha. Zinjalo ke iingqikelelo zakhe esele zikho kwii-80s zokuqala waqikelela ukuba utshintsho lwemozulu luya kuzisa utshintsho ekujikelezeni kolwandle, umkhenkce omkhulu, okanye ukuphindaphindeka kunye nokuqina kwimbalela kunye nezikhukhula.
Ingqungquthela yabezindaba yabaphumeleleyo yathatha iiyure ezimbalwa kwaye bayabulela kwaye baphendula imibuzo ngevidiyo vonferensi. UHansen uphawule kwiintatheli kwaye ebenyanzelekile malunga nesidingo sokuyeka ukusetyenziswa kwezibaso ngokukhawuleza. Ngokufuna ukumisa iziphumo zotshintsho lwemozulu, Le kuphela kwendlela yokuphepha iintlekele ezisilindeleyo.
UHansen uthe ngeenjongo ezininzi ezilungileyo kunye nokwehlisa usukelo ekujoliswe kuko amazwe azibekele lona ngokwesiVumelwano saseParis, ukuthintela iigesi kuya kuba "yinto engenakwenzeka" ukuba iifosili zihlala "zezona ndlela zexabiso eliphantsi", Ubhenele kumazwe ukuba abeke irhafu yekhabhoni ngokukhawuleza. Uye watsho ukuba ukuba sifuna ukunciphisa amaqondo obushushu ehlabathi kwaye singabonyusi ngaphezu kwe-1,5 degrees, Kuyenzeka kuphela ukuba siqala ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwehlabathi nge-2% ngonyaka. Oku kuncitshiswa kufanele ukuba kwenziwe ngoku, kuba ukuba silinda elinye ishumi leminyaka ngaphambi kokuba senze lo mbandela ube yinto ephambili, kuya kuba sekulindelwe kakhulu ukunqanda iziphumo ezibi zokutshintsha kwemozulu.
Okokugqibela, walumkisa ukuba siza kuyilahla ngokupheleleyo i-Arctic ngumkhenkce kwixa elizayo kunye notshintsho olukhulu kumaza olwandle kwaye isiqingatha sezixeko ezikhulu zeplanethi, ezikufuphi nonxweme, ziya kugutyungelwa kukunyuka komphakamo wolwandle ukuya ukuphela kwenkulungwane.