Kwemakore, nhoroondo yepasi redu yakave neshanduko huru. Vamwe vanga vari vanyoro uye vane mwero, uye vamwe vanga vane hasha zvikuru uye vane hasha. Zvimwe zvacho zvine chekuita nekutsakatika kwemarudzi mazhinji. Asi nei pakave nenguva apo mhando zhinji dzakatsakatika zvakanyanya? Daniel Rothman, purofesa we geophysics muDhipatimendi reAtmospheric nePlanetari Sayenzi paMIT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, akashandisa masvomhu kupindura uyu mubvunzo.
Zvinoenderana nezvakafanotaurwa, mugore ra2100 makungwa achachengeta huwandu hwemakumi matatu negumi egigoni ekabhoni dhayokisaidhi. Imwe Gigaton yakafanana ne1.000.000.000.000 kilograms (one trillion). Izvo zvakakwana kumutsa mukana wekupera kwemazhinji kana pasina chakaitwa kumisa icho. Iyi ndiyo mhedziso iyo Rothman asvika achifunga nezvekuvhiringidzika kwekabhoni mumakore ekupedzisira mazana mashanu nemakumi mashanu nemaviri emakore
Uchishandisa masvomhu kufanotaura ramangwana
En ongororo yemakore ekupedzisira mazana mashanu nemakumi mashanu nemaviri emakore, inogona kucherechedzwa 5 kukuru kutsakatika zvakaitika. Chinhu chimwe chete chavanacho zvakafanana kusagadzikana kukuru kwekabhoni. Dzakakanganisa makungwa nemuchadenga. Uye zvakare, sekuratidzwa, kuvhiringidzika uku kwakagara mamirioni emakore, zvichikonzera kutsakatika kwemarudzi mazhinji. Panyaya yemhando dzegungwa, vanosvika 75% yavo.
Iye MIT geophysics purofesa akaendesa kumagazini Sayenzi Kufambira mberi, chimiro chemasvomhu chaakakwanisa kuziva icho chikumbaridzo chenjodzi. Kana izvo zvikumbaridzo zvakapfuura, mikana yekutsakatika kwemazhinji yakakura kwazvo.
Chiratidzo mumazuva edu
Kuti usvike pane izvi mhedziso, makumi matatu neshanu zviitiko kubva mumakore ekupedzisira mazana mashanu nemakumi mashanu nemaviri emakore zvakadzidzwa. Iyo yakakosha mwero wekukanganisa bhabhoni kutenderera uye kukura kwayo kwakabatanidzwa nehukuru hweiyo timescale iyo iyo alkalinity yegungwa uye shanduko yemamiriro ekunze inoshanduka. Uyu ndiwo muganho wekudzivirira acidification yeaya maviri.
Kana chimwe cheizvi zvikumbaridzo chakapfuura, zvakaonekwa kuti kutsakatika kukuru kwemarudzi kunotevera.. Nezve shanduko mune kabhoni kutenderera kunoitika kwenguva yakareba, kutsakatika kunoitika kana shanduko idzi dzichiitika nekukurumidza kupfuura vhidhiyo yekugona kwavo kugadzirisa. Chinhu chinoratidza zviri kuitika munguva yedu. Iko kukosheswa kwekabhoni dhayokisaidhi, uye mamiriro ekunze ari kuchinja nekukurumidza zvakanyanya, achitaura pane timescales.
Mukupesana, nekuda kwekuvhunduka kunoitika pane ipfupi timescales, iwo mwero wekuchinja kwekabhoni hauna basa. Panguva ino, chakakosha kukura kana kukura kweshanduko, iyo inosarudza mukana wacho.
Yakasvika pa 2100
Rothman akati zvinotora makore angangoita zviuru gumi kuti chiitiko ichi chikure zvizere. Asi izvo zvinokwanisika kuti kana mamiriro acho asvika, nyika inopinda munzvimbo isingazivikanwe. Iroro idambudziko chairo. "Ini handidi kutaura kuti chiitiko ichi chinoitika mangwana," akadaro muchitauti. «Ndiri kutaura kuti, kana ikasadzorwa, kabhoni raitenderera richipinda munzvimbo isingazogadzikane uye kuti yaizozvibata nenzira yaizonetsa kufungidzira. Munguva yezvakaitika kare, mhando yehunhu iyi inosanganisirwa nekutsakatika kwemazhinji. '
Muongorori aimbove achishanda pakupera kwekupedzisira kwePermian. Iyo yakanyanya nguva yakaoma munhoroondo yepasi ine inopfuura 95% yezvisikwa, yakaona kupisa kukuru kwekabhoni kuchinyanyobatanidzwa. Kubva ipapo, hurukuro zhinji neshamwari uye nevanhu vakamukomberedza zvakamukurudzira kuti aite tsvagiridzo iyi. Kubva pano, sezvaanotaura pachake "Ndakagara pasi rimwe zuva rezhizha uye ndakaedza kufunga kuti munhu angadzidza sei izvi zvakarongeka." Chii chakaitika mamirioni emakore apfuura, vachitora yakakura nguva masikero, mune chimwe chinhu icho nhasi chinoita kunge chinongotora mazana mashoma emakore.
Nyika yedu ine mwero. Angave tembiricha, mamiriro ekunze, kusvibiswa, makabhoni, nezvimwe Chiyero, icho chiri kuchinja nekukurumidza kupfuura nakare kose chinoita kunge chakarohwa. Ndichakwanisa kumira here? Uye kana zvisina kudaro, taigona sei kutsanangura kuti hatisati tamumisa iye nekumuona achisvika?