Mwana wevanhu agara ane shuviro yekuziva mamiriro ekunze uye kuifungidzira. Kutenda kuvandudzwa kwetekinoroji, kune akasiyana mamodheru emakomputa ayo anobatsira kufanotaura zvichaitwa nemamiriro ekunze mumazuva mashoma mushure. Nhasi tichataura nezvazvo GFS modhi. Iyo ndeimwe yemhando dzakakosha uye imwe ine kukosha kukuru pasirese.
Naizvozvo, isu tiri kuzotsaurira ichi chinyorwa kukuudza zvese zvaunoda kuti uzive nezve iyo GFS modhi, ayo maitiro uye kukosha kwayo.
Chii chinonzi GFS modhi
Mavara ekutanga anoenderana neGlobal Forecast System. MuSpanish zvinoreva sehurongwa hwepasirese hwekurambidza, kunyange hazvo huri kuzivikanwa zviri nani nemamwe mazita. Icho mhando yehuwandu hwemasvomhu modhi iyo inoshandiswa kune yekufungidzira kwemamiriro ekunze. Yakagadzirwa uye parizvino inoshandiswa neNational Oceanic uye Atmospheric Administration yeUSA.Iyo yemasvomhu modhi inovandudzwa kwenguva inokwana kana pazuva. Zvichienderana nedata rakawanikwa kubva pamamiriro ekunze akasiyana emamiriro ekunze, fungidziro dzinogona kugadzirwa kusvika mazuva gumi nematanhatu zvisati zvaitika.
Zvinonyatso kuzivikanwa kuti idzi fungidziro hadzina kuvimbika zvizere sezvo masimba emuchadenga anogona kuchinjika zviri nyore. Hunhu hwemamiriro ekunze nemamiriro ekunze aripo zvinoenderana nekukosha kwezvinhu zvakawanda panguva imwe chete. Mazhinji eaya misiyano anokanganiswa zvakananga nehuremu hwemwaranzi yezuva inobata pasi redu. Maererano ne huwandu hwemwaranzi yezuva zvimwe zvese zvinoshanduka zviri kutanga kutanga nekushisa uye nehurumende yemhepo.
Zvinotenderwa kuti kufungidzira kweiyo GFS modhi hakutipe kutendeseka kwakakwirira mushure memazuva manomwe. Zvinogona kutotaurwa kuti mushure memazuva 7-3 hazvichisiri zvakakwana. Mazhinji mamamiriro emamiriro ekunze emamiriro ekunze pamwe nemasangano anoparadzira mhedzisiro kubva pamuenzaniso uyu, kunyanya iwo anodarika mazuva gumi gare gare.
Mamiriyoni ekufanotaura mamiriro ekunze
Kugona kufungidzira mamiriro ekunze, akasiyana manhamba emamodeli anodikanwa. Aya mamodheru enhamba ari kutora kukosha kweanosiyana-siyana emuchadenga uye nenzira dzekuomesa kuenzana mamiriro ezvinhu aya anogona kuzivikanwa munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Kune mana manhamba emamodeli emamiriro ekunze ekufungidzira anonyanya kushandiswa pasi rese:
- Yakabatanidzwa Forecast System yeEuropean Center yeMiddle-Range Weather Forecast.
- Iyo Global Ezvakatipoteredza Multiscale Canada modhi.
- Iyo Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System emauto eU.S.
- GFS (Global Forecast Sisitimu).
Iyi ndiyo mienzaniso inoshandiswa zvakanyanya yekufanotaura kwemeteorological mune yepakati term uye pachiyero chekufananidza.
European GFS modhi
Kana tangoziva mashandiro erudzi urwu rweyemeteorological kufanotaura modhi, isu tinofanirwa kunge tichivakirwa pamisiyano iripo munzvimbo dzakasiyana dzenyika dzepasi. Kunyanya, iwe unofanirwa kutarisa iyo European GFS modhi. Uye ndiyo here iyi modhi Iyo ine akawanda mabhenefiti pamusoro wepamusoro mukwikwidzi akagadzirwa nehurumende yeUnited States of America. Kana isu parizvino tichienzanisa mhando mbiri idzi, iri gakava rinozove nemagumo. Ivo vaviri vane hunhu hwakanaka kwazvo uye vanofanotaura zvakaringana. Hakuchina bvunzo dzekuedza dzichiri kuitwa nekambani inoshanda yakazvimiririra kuona kuti ndedzipi pamamodeli maviri akanakisa kufanotaura mamiriro ekunze.
Kunyangwe paine chokwadi chekuti pakati pevaviri ava hapana anokunda mumwe, mazvikokota mazhinji ari mumunda anosarudza iyo European modhi. Imwe yemakakatanwa makuru pakati peiyo modhi neAmerican ndiyo tekinoroji yayo Iine makomputa akaomesesa uye anodhura anovabvumidza kuti vashande nenzira inoshanda. Nounyanzvi hwounyanzvi hwakanyanya, hwakajeka, hwakagadziriswa uye hwepamusoro dhizaini fungidziro yemhepo inowanikwa.
Nyanzvi zhinji dzinoti iyo European GFS modhi iri nani kwazvo kupfuura United States maererano nedata rekufananidza. Nharo dzavanoshandisa ndedzekuti yakazara zvakakwana uye inopa huwandu hweruzivo rwakasimbiswa. Kupa muenzaniso kuitira kuti musiyano uripo pakati pemamodeli eEuropean neAmerican uonekwe, European iri inokwanisa kuita makumi mashanu kusvika mukufananidza kwemuchadenga pahuwandu hwekufungidzira, nepo iyo North America ichigona chete kuenzanisa makumi maviri panguva.
GFS modhi muSpain
Kune zvakare iyi modhi yekufanotaura kwemamiriro ekunze munyika medu. Iyi modhi inomhanya yega yega modelling yayo munzvimbo dzakawanda. Ngatione kuti ndezvipi zvikamu izvi:
- Yokutanga inoitwa nechisarudzo chepamusoro uye chiri nani pane inowanzo kwira kusvika kumaawa 192, zvinoenzana nemazuva masere ane mepu dzemaawa matanhatu ega ega ekufanotaura.
- Chimwe chikamu chekufanotaura chine resolution yepasi. Uye ndezvekuti zvinongosanganisira chete pakati pemaawa makumi maviri nemana nemakumi matatu nemana nemana nemakumi matatu nemana nemakumi matatu nenomwe, anova mazuva gumi nematanhatu aine mepu dzemaawa gumi nemaviri. Sezvazvinofanira kutarisirwa, kufungidzira uku kune chisarudzo chakadzika, nekuti sezvo ichifukidza mazuva mazhinji, haigone kuzviita nemazvo zvakafanana.
Mundima yeSpain, uyu modhi unowanzo shandiswa kanokwana kana pazuva kuti ukwanise kufungidzira zvakanaka kufungidzira kwenguva pfupi. Inogona kutaurwa kuti inoshandiswa paawa 4, 0 uye gumi nemaviri maawa. Nezve kuvandudzwa kwemamepu anogona kuratidzwa kuti aone mhedzisiro, vanourayiwa munguva chaiyo kubva 6:12, 18:3, 30:9 uye 30:15 UTC.
Izvo zvinofanirwa kutariswa kuti mhando iyi yemamiriro ekunze ekufanotaura ine zvikanganiso zvawo sezvo misiyano yemuchadenga haina basa rakagadziriswa Naizvozvo, tinozviona mishumo yakawanda yemamiriro ekunze haina kunaka nekufungidzira sezvo shanduko yemuchadenga isingawanzo nyore kufungidzira. Mimwe miitiro yakaita sekuumbwa kwemadutu kana anticyclones inogona kuve yakapusa. Nekudaro, kufungidzira kutamiswa kwemweya uyu wakanyanya kuoma kufungidzira.
Ndinovimba kuti neruzivo urwu unogona kudzidza zvakawanda nezve iyo GFS modhi, ayo maitiro uye kukosha.