Izibalo zibikezela ukuphela kwesithupha kwezinhlobo zezilwane ngo-2100

Eminyakeni edlule, umlando weplanethi yethu ube nezinguquko ezinkulu. Abanye bebemnene futhi belinganisela, kanti abanye bebelukhuni futhi benolaka. Ezinye zazo ziye zahlobene nokuqothulwa kwezinhlobo eziningi zezinto eziphilayo. Kodwa kungani kuye kwaba nezikhathi lapho izinhlobo eziningi zezinto eziphilayo ziye zanyamalala kakhulu? UDaniel Rothman, uprofesa we-geophysics eMnyangweni we-Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences eMIT, eMassachusetts Institute of Technology, usebenzise izibalo ukuphendula lo mbuzo.

Ngokwezibikezelo, ngonyaka wama-2100 izilwandle zizogcina ingqikithi yama-gigaton angama-310 e-carbon dioxide. IGigaton eyodwa icishe ifane ne-1.000.000.000.000 kilograms (trillion eyodwa). Kwanele ukuqala amathuba okuqothulwa kwesisindo uma kungenziwa lutho ukukuvimba. Lesi yisiphetho uRothman asesifinyelele ngokubheka ukuphazamiseka kwekhabhoni eminyakeni eyizigidi ezingama-542 edlule.

Usebenzisa izibalo ukubikezela ikusasa

izinhlobo zokuqothulwa eminyakeni eyizigidi edlule

En ukuhlaziywa kweminyaka eyizigidi ezingama-542 edlule, kungabonakala 5 ukuqothulwa okukhulu kwesisindo kwenzeke. Into eyodwa bonke abafana ngayo ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwekhabhoni. Zithinte kokubili ulwandle nomoya. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba kukhonjisiwe, lokhu kuphazamiseka kudonse izigidi zeminyaka, kwabangela ukuqothulwa kwezinhlobo eziningi zezinto eziphilayo. Endabeni yezinhlobo zasolwandle, kufika ku-75% wazo.

Uprofesa we-MIT geophysics wethule iphephabhuku i-Science Advances, ifomula yezibalo athe wakwazi ngayo ukubona imikhawulo yenhlekelele. Uma leyo mibundu yeqiwe, amathuba okuqothulwa okukhulu makhulu kakhulu.

Isibonakaliso ezinsukwini zethu

Ukufinyelela kulezi ziphetho, kwafundwa imicimbi engama-31 yesotopic evela eminyakeni eyizigidi ezingama-542 edlule. Izinga elibucayi lokuphazamiseka komjikelezo wekhabhoni nobukhulu baso belixhunyaniswe nosayizi wesilinganiso sesikhathi lapho ukuguquguquka kolwandle nolwandle kushintsha khona. Lo ngumkhawulo wokuvimbela i-acidification yalaba ababili.

ukuhlushwa kwe-carbon dioxide kwiplanethi yokuziphendukela kwemvelo

Lapho omunye wale mingcele emibili wedlulwa, kwabonwa ukuthi ukuqothulwa okukhulu kwezinhlobo zezinto eziphilayo kuyalandela.. Izinguquko kumjikelezo wekhabhoni ezenzeka isikhathi eside, ukuqothulwa kwenzeka uma lezi zinguquko zenzeka ngesivinini esisheshayo kunamandla abezindaba okuzivumelanisa. Into ekhombisa okwenzekayo ezikhathini zethu. Lapho amanani e-carbon dioxide enyuka kakhulu, nesimo sezulu sishintsha ngesivinini esedlulele ngokweqile, sikhuluma kuma-timescales.

Ngokuphambene nalokho, ngokushaqeka okwenzeka kuma-timescales amafushane, izinga lokushintshwa komjikelezo wekhabhoni alisho lutho. Kuleli qophelo, okulungile usayizi noma ubukhulu bokuguqulwa, okunquma amathuba.

Ifike ngo-2100

URothman uthe kuzothatha cishe iminyaka eyi-10.000 XNUMX ukuthi lesi simo sikhule ngokugcwele. Kepha ukuthi kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi uma isimo sesifikile, iplanethi ingena endaweni engaziwa. Lokho kuyinkinga impela. "Angifuni ukusho ukuthi le nto yenzeke ngakusasa," esho esitatimendeni. «Ngisho ukuthi, uma kungalawulwa, umjikelezo wekhabhoni ubuzongena endaweni ebingasenakusimama nokuthi iziphatha ngendlela okuzoba nzima ukuyibikezela. Esikhathini esidlule sokwakheka komhlaba, lolu hlobo lokuziphatha luhambisana nokuqothulwa kwabantu abaningi. '

ukwazi izilwane 6

Umcwaningi phambilini ubesebenza ekuqothulweni kukaPermian osekudlule isikhathi. Isikhathi esinzima kunazo zonke emlandweni womhlaba esinezinhlobo ezingaphezu kuka-95% wezinhlobo zezinto eziphilayo, sabona ukuthi ukubandakanyeka okukhulu kwekhabhoni kuhileleke kakhulu. Kusukela lapho, izingxoxo eziningi nabangane nabantu abamzungezile zimshukumisile ukuthi enze lolu cwaningo. Ukusuka lapha, njengoba yena ngokwakhe esho "Ngahlala phansi ngolunye usuku ehlobo futhi ngazama ukucabanga ukuthi umuntu angakufunda kanjani lokhu ngokuhlelekile." Okwenzeka ezigidini zeminyaka eyedlule, besebenzisa izikali zesikhathi esikhulu, entweni namuhla ebonakala ithatha kuphela amakhulu eminyaka ambalwa.

Iplanethi yethu inokulinganisela. Kungaba ukushisa, isimo sezulu, ukungcola, amazinga ekhabhoni, njll. Ibhalansi, eshintsha ngokushesha kunanini ngaphambili kubonakala sengathi ishayiwe. Ngizokwazi ukuyeka? Futhi uma kungenjalo, singachaza kanjani ukuthi asikammisi okwamanje futhi simbona efika?


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  1. Ubhekele imininingwane: Miguel Ángel Gatón
  2. Inhloso yedatha: Lawula Ugaxekile, ukuphathwa kwamazwana.
  3. Ukusemthethweni: Imvume yakho
  4. Ukuxhumana kwemininingwane: Imininingwane ngeke idluliselwe kubantu besithathu ngaphandle kwesibopho esisemthethweni.
  5. Isitoreji sedatha: Idatabase ebanjwe yi-Occentus Networks (EU)
  6. Amalungelo: Nganoma yisiphi isikhathi ungakhawulela, uthole futhi ususe imininingwane yakho.