Inhloso enkulu yeSivumelwano saseParis ukuvikela ukukhuphuka kwamazinga okushisa emhlabeni wonke ngama-1,5 degrees ngaphezu kwamazinga wangaphambi kwezimboni. Yize le nhloso ingafinyelelwa futhi iqiniswe kulelo zinga, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kubangela ukwanda kokuvama nokuqina kwamacala ezeqile esimo se-El Niño esizoqhubeka kanjena ikhulu leminyaka.
Noma izinhloso zesivumelwano saseParis zifinyelelwe, lokhu bekungeke kusize ukuzinzisa i-El Niño. Lezi zifundo zenziwe yizikhungo zocwaningo e-Australia naseChina. Ngabe ufuna ukwazi kabanzi ngomphumela we-El Niño?
Khulisa esimweni se-El Niño
Ukuqhubeka nokufudumala kwesifunda sePacific esisenkabazwe esisempumalanga okubangelwe ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke nokukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa, Benza ukwanda kwe-El Niño kumvamisa nokuqina. Phambilini, i-El Niño ibinemijikelezo yeminyaka eyi-7, ngoba kuyisimo semvelo semvelo, esishintshaniswa nesenzeko seLa Niña. Kunobufakazi obukhombisa ukuthi le nto i-El Niño yenzeke ngale ndlela isikhathi eside. Kodwa-ke, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kubangela ukuthi kwenzeke ngejubane elikhulu futhi ngamandla amakhulu.
I-El Niño eyenzeka kaningi futhi ishubile iholela emiphumeleni emibi kulawo mazwe ahlupheka ngenxa yayo, njengePeru. Umholi wesifundo uGuojian Wang uthe ingozi yamanje yamacala amakhulu e-El Niño yi-5 ngekhulu leminyaka kodwa ukuthi ngo-2050, lapho kulindeleke ukuthi ukufudumala kufinyelele kuma-degree angu-1,5, imvamisa izophinda kabili kumacala ayi-10.
Ukwazi umphumela nokuvama kwento ka-El Niño ngokuzayo, kuye kwasetshenziswa amamodeli ezinhlanu zesimo sezulu asuselwa esimweni somhlaba lapho ukukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa kuncane. Ngamanye amagama, yizinto ezikhishwa umhlaba wonke i-IPCC elinganisela ukuthi kuzoba khona uma izidingo zeSivumelwano SaseParis kuhlangatshezwana nazo. Izimo ezimbi kakhulu ze-El Niño zenzeka lapho isikhungo semvula ePacific siya ngaseNingizimu Melika, okudala ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu, okugcizelelwa kakhulu empumalanga lapho isikhungo sihamba khona.
Ngakho-ke, imiphumela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu isivele inganqandeki. Ukuphela kwento esingayenza ukubathokozisa ngangokunokwenzeka.