Imiphumela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu ingashintsha amazinga okushisa aphakathi komhlaba. Imiphumela kanye nemiphumela yokushintshashintsha kokushisa okungavamile kungahle kubonwe ngezinga elithile.
Yazi ukushisa okuzoba ngonyaka we-2017 kungabaluleka kakhulu ezenzakalweni zesikhathi esizayo kwiplanethi yesimo sezulu. Singakwazi yini ukuthi yimaphi amazinga okushisa asilindele kulo nyaka?
Amarekhodi okushisa
Amarekhodi okushisa ka-2016 awakapheleli. Kodwa-ke, izitayela zingabonakala ukuze kubikezelwe ukuthi unyaka wethu ungaba kanjani. Njengoba sihlaziya izitayela zokushisa zango-2016, singaqinisekisa, ukuthi kuzoba unyaka ofudumele kakhulu selokhu abantu baqopha amazinga okushisa. Kuze kube muva nje, unyaka ka-2014 ubuthathwa njengonyaka oshisayo kunazo zonke emlandweni. Unyaka wezi-2015 uhlale uzinzile kancane, kepha kusukela kokubonwayo ezilinganisweni zokushisa zika-2016, kuzoba unyaka oshisayo owaziwa kuze kube manje.
Izilinganiso zokushisa zomhlaba wonke zaqala ukwenziwa ngokunemba okuhlobene Iminyaka engu-135 edlule futhi akekho owayezolindela ukuthi ukuthambekela kwamazinga okushisa omhlaba kuzolandela indlela eqonde ngqo ekwandeni hhayi ekushintshashintsheni njengoba bekulokhu kunjalo.
Izinkulungwane zososayensi emhlabeni jikelele zihlaziya imininingwane eqoqiwe futhi zisebenzisa amamodeli ahlukahlukene ukuze zikwazi yenza izibikezelo ekuziphendukeleni nasekuthambekeni kwamazinga okushisa ngaphezu kwezinye izinkomba zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.
Okwamanje, ngokuya ngemininingwane etholakalayo, kungalindelwa ukuthi u-2017 uzoba ngomunye unyaka ofudumele kakhulu emhlabeni wonke, yize kungenakwenzeka Kwangathi kungaphinda kube unyaka ozuza irekhodi lomhlaba ngamazinga okushisa aphakeme kakhulu ngenxa yomphumela owengeziwe obangelwe yisimo se I-El Niño ngoba kulindelwe imiphumela ekwehlisweni kokukhishwa kwegesi engcolisa umoya owenziwa ukushisa okushiswa ngumoya yizwe eliqinisekisile iSivumelwano saseParis.
Umthombo: Aemet
Kulindeleke izinga lokushisa lomhlaba jikelele lango-2017 iphakathi kuka-0,63 ° C no-0,87 ° C ngenhla kwesilinganiso sesimo sezulu sesithenjwa (1961-1990), ngesilinganiso esiphakathi kuka-0,75 ° C, ososayensi bathi.
Ukwanda kwamazinga okushisa aphakathi komhlaba kusheshisiwe kusukela ekuqaleni kwekhulu lama-XNUMX futhi kungenxa yamakhompyutha we I-Office lapho kungenzeka khona ukwenza izibikezelo ezethembeke ngokwengeziwe nangokunemba okukhulu.
Unyaka wezi-2017 nawo kulindeleke ukuthi ushise kakhulu njengaseminyakeni edlule, kodwa ngenxa yokungabi bikho kwemiphumela emazingeni okushisa esimo se I-El Niño, kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke kancane. Ezikhathini ezedlule, izibikezelo ezenziwa ngamakhompyutha we-Met Office zaziseduze kakhulu namazinga okushisa abekhona phakathi nonyaka. Ukuqagela kwe-Met Office kulinganiselwa ukukhuphuka kwezinga lokushisa eliphakathi kuka-0,72 ° C no-0,96 ° C kanye nesilinganiso esiphakathi sika-0,84 ° C (maqondana nesilinganiso esingu-961-1990). Ekungabikho kwemininingwane kusuka ngoDisemba odlule, kulinganiselwa ukuthi izinga lokushisa lomhlaba jikelele lenyuke ngo-0,86 ° C ngonyaka odlule, okungukuthi, kuphela u-0,02 ° C ohlukile kunesilinganiso esiphakathi seMet Office).
Izizathu zokuthi kungani izinga lokushisa lomhlaba liphuma
Izinga lokushisa lomhlaba wonke likhuphuka ngesivinini esikhulu futhi lidinga ukumiswa ngandlela thile. Kodwa siyazi ukuthi kungani amazinga okushisa enyuka?
Yebo, esinye sezizathu esenza ukuthi u-2016 afudumele emlandweni kungenxa ye-Imiphumela yesenzeko se I-El Niño okube nomthelela ekwandeni kwamazinga okushisa cishe ngo-0,2 ° C.
Okunye ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kulindeleke ukwanda kokuhlushwa kwamagesi abamba ukushisa emkhathini, kubangelwa ukungcola okuvela embonini nasekuthuthweni Yize isimo se I-El Niño ngeke isebenze futhi ibe nomthelela emazingeni okushisa omhlaba ngo-2017, kulo nyaka kuzophinde kube ngomunye wemfudumalo emlandweni woMhlaba wakamuva.
Kulekota yokuqala yonyaka ka-2017, i-Aemet ikhombisa ngendlela ejwayelekile ukuthi “kunethuba elikhulu lokuthi izinga lokushisa lifinyelela amanani aphezulu kunokujwayelekile kulo lonke elaseSpain ”. Mayelana nezimvula nokuwa kweqhwa, i-Aemet ikhombisa ukuthi “kunamathuba amakhulu okuthi imvula iphakeme kakhulu kunokujwayelekile engxenyeni esempumalanga yeNhlonhlo Yase-Iberia naseziQhingini zaseBalearic; kulo lonke elaseSpain akukho mehluko ophawulekayo maqondana nesilinganiso sezulu sezulu sika-1981-2000 ”.