Siphila enkathini lapho ulwazi oluningi lugeleza olusizungezile kangangokuthi asikwazi ukubamba imibono ebalulekile neyinhloko yolwazi. Ikakhulukazi eziyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu, njengososayensi. Ukugcwala kolwazi kwesinye isikhathi kungaholela ekudidekeni. Ikhuluma ngo-a iqhwa elilandelayo eSpain futhi lokho kudida izakhamizi.
Kulesi sihloko sizokutshela konke okudingeka ukwazi mayelana neqhwa elilandelayo eSpain nokuthi lithinta ini.
Iqhwa elilandelayo eSpain
Ososayensi bayaqiniseka ukuthi la maqiniso amabili awangqubuzani, ngoba isihluthulelo isilinganiso sesikhathi. Thina bantu siyadideka uma sicabanga kusukela emashumini eminyaka kuya emashumini ezinkulungwane zeminyaka. Yilokho iphuzu.
Iminyaka yobudala beplanethi yethu enguMhlaba yiminyaka eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-5. Ama-hominids akhona emhlabeni iminyaka eyizigidi ezi-5. Futhi sikhona kuphela emlandweni (ukubhala, impucuko) iminyaka eyizinkulungwane ezinhlanu. Zonke "ziyisihlanu", zisondelene kakhulu, kodwa ngezilinganiso zesikhathi ezihluke kakhulu.
Ngamafuphi, isikhathi esisiphile emhlabeni asisho lutho uma siqhathaniswa neminyaka yeplanethi. Phakathi nezigidigidi zeminyaka ukhona, isimo sezulu soMhlaba siye sashintsha kakhulu.
Iqhwa Age
Emlandweni wakamuva woMhlaba, isimo sezulu sishintshe kakhulu phakathi nezikhathi ezibizwa ngokuthi i-ice age, lapho uMhlaba wawucishe umbozwe yiqhwa. Phakathi nalezi zikhathi zeqhwa, sinezinkathi zeqhwa. Umfanekiso 1 usikhombisa ukuvela kwezinga lokushisa e-Antarctica phakathi neminyaka engu-400.000 edlule (umugqa obomvu). Sibone isimo se-sawtooth: ukushesha ukuya phezulu nokuhamba kancane.
Zicabange sisenkathini yeqhwa. Izinga lokushisa liphansi kakhulu, umhlaba ugcwele iqhwa futhi ngokuzumayo izinga lokushisa likhuphuka ngokushesha. Singena enkathini yeqhwa.
Ngakho-ke emva kwezinkulungwane zeminyaka (umjikelezo uvame ukuzungeze iminyaka eyi-100.000), sisenkathini yeqhwa futhi. Futhi iluphu iyaphinda. Kulezi zilinganiso zesikhathi, ukuhlukahluka okuningi kwesimo sezulu sethu kungenxa yezinguquko ezihamba kancane emigudwini yamaplanethi azungeze ilanga, umbono owasungulwa nguMilankovitch engxenyeni yokuqala yekhulu lama-XNUMX.
Namuhla sisenkathini yeqhwa. Sineplanethi engakaze igcwaliswe iqhwa izinkulungwane zeminyaka. Ososayensi babiza lesi sikhathi ngeHolocene. Kuyo kubonakala ezolimo, impucuko yokuqala enkulu kanye nomlando wethu kuze kube namuhla. Konke kubonakala kubonisa ukuthi ukuguquguquka kweplanethi kuzoqhubeka futhi izinga lokushisa elijwayelekile leplanethi lizokwehla kancane kancane liye esikhathini seqhwa esilandelayo. Kodwa khumbula ukuthi lo mjikelezo uthatha cishe iminyaka eyi-100.000. Ngamanye amazwi, ngeke kube khona inkathi yeqhwa kuleli khulu leminyaka, noma inkulungwane yeminyaka elandelayo. Kuzokwenzeka esikalini sesikhathi esingavamile esingaphezu kokuqonda kwethu, esijwayele ubude bempilo yomuntu.
Kodwa emlandweni wakamuva kakhulu wesimo sezulu soMhlaba, kwenzeke into eyinqaba. Sekungamashumi eminyaka ososayensi bethi sibona ukufudumala okungavamile nokungajwayelekile. Sithole isizathu: sikhipha amagesi abamba ukushisa. Sengikushilo lokho, senza ucwaningo olukhulu emhlabeni wethu.
Asazi kahle ukuthi kuzokwenzekani ngesimo sezulu soMhlaba emashumini eminyaka ezayo, ngoba kuzoncika emandleni ethu (ukukhipha amagesi abamba ukushisa angaphezulu noma amancane). Sesivele sicwile ekufudumaleni komhlaba, futhi umjikelezo wezinguzunga zamaqhwa kanye nezinguzunga zamaqhwa uzoqhubeka, nakuba ngesilinganiso sesikhathi esingenakuqhathaniswa nhlobo sento ngayinye.
Ukubambezeleka kweqhwa elilandelayo eSpain
Ngokwezilinganiso, inkathi yeqhwa elandelayo, ephawula ukuphela kwenkathi efudumele esiyijabulelayo manje, kufanele iqale eminyakeni eyi-1500. Kodwa-ke, inani lamagesi abamba ukushisa anqwabelana emkhathini woMhlaba lingaphazamisa amaphethini avamile futhi ukubambezela inkathi yeqhwa elandelayo ngamashumi ezinkulungwane zeminyaka.
Lezi iziphetho zocwaningo oluvela eNyuvesi yaseFlorida olwasebenzisa amamodeli ezinkanyezi ukubala inani lokushisa kwelanga elifinyelele emkhathini woMhlaba phakathi nenkathi yeqhwa neqhwa. Ngokusho kwalawa mamodeli, isikhathi samanje sokuhlangana kweqhwa sizophela eminyakeni eyizigidigidi eziyi-1.500. Kodwa-ke, ukugcwala okuphezulu kwamagesi abamba ukushisa emkhathini kungaphazamisa amaphethini okupholisa avamile oMhlaba ngoba abamba ukushisa okubonakala ebusweni beplanethi.
Nakuba ithemba leminyaka eminingi yokufudumala ngaphambi kweqhwa elilandelayo lilinga, iqiniso liwukuthi izinkinga ezihambisana nazo zingaba nemiphumela emibi kakhulu. “Izingqimba zeqhwa njengeNtshonalanga ye-Antarctica ziye zaphazanyiswa ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke,” kuxwayisa uJim Tunnel. Lapho ekugcineni ehlukana futhi abe ingxenye yomthamo wolwandle, umthelela ezingeni lolwandle uyoba mkhulu.
Eminye imibono
Kuyaxaka ukuthi ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kungaholela ekwehleni okumangazayo ngo-5 kuya ku-10 degrees Celsius eYurophu. Kuze kwavuleka inkathi entsha ngenxa yezwekazi elidala. Lokhu kungase kuzwakale kuyindida, kodwa ososayensi bathi kungenzeka uma ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kubangela ukuwa kohlelo lwamanje lwe-Atlantic, olwaziwa nge-Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Sekuvele kuyenzeka. Futhi, i-AMOC isondela emngceleni wayo obalulekile. Abacwaningi bakhiphe isexwayiso esiphuthumayo ngoba izinhlelo zamanje zolwandle zibalulekile ekuzinzeni kwesimo sezulu somhlaba.
Ucwaningo olusha olushicilelwe ku-Nature Climate Change futhi lusekelwa iphrojekthi ye-TiPES exhaswe yi-EU, okuhloswe ngayo ukulinganisa kangcono ukuba khona kwezinto ezikhishwayo ohlelweni lwezulu, lugqamisa indlela uhlelo lwamanje lwe-Atlantic, oluyi-A of the Gulf Stream, kubonakala sengathi kubonisa "izimpawu ezicacile zokungazinzi kanye nokuwa okungenzeka". Uma lokhu kwenzeka, ososayensi babikezela ukuthi kuzoba "nomphumela obalulekile wokupholisa esimweni sezulu saseYurophu."
Ucwaningo beluholwa u-Niklas Boers we-Potsdam Institute for Climate Change (PIK), ilungu le-TiPES (Tipping Points in the Earth System) consortium. Ucwaningo luthole ngokuhlolwa okuningiliziwe kokubonwa kwesimanje kanye nezimpawu eziyisixwayiso zangaphambi kwesikhathi, njengamaphethini osawoti emanzini olwandle, okungenzeka ukuthi ama-AMOC alahlekelwe ukuzinza kwawo phakathi nekhulu leminyaka elidlule.
Ngithemba ukuthi ngalolu lwazi ungafunda kabanzi mayelana neqhwa elilandelayo eSpain nokuthi iyini imiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.