Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kunemiphumela eminingi emibi ezimisweni zemvelo. Izinhlobo zezilwane, izilwane nezitshalo nezinye izinto eziphilayo nazo ziyashintsha ngenxa yemiphumela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu.
Ngokukhuphuka kwamazinga okushisa, izinguquko kumjikelezo wemvelo, kukhuphuke kakhulu imicimbi yesimo sezulu, njll. Izilwane eziningi nezitshalo akuhambisani nemvelo. Kusho ukuthini futhi yini imiphumela yezinhlobo ezilahlekelwa ukuvumelanisa kwayo nemvelo?
Ubufakazi bezinguquko ezindaweni eziphilayo
Kulesi sihloko ngizokhuluma nge-phenology, ngakho-ke ngizokuchaza uma kungenzeka kube nokungabaza. Phenology kuyinto ubudlelwane phakathi kokuphila kwezilwane nezitshalo njengomsebenzi wokuhluka kwesikhathi. Isibonelo, ukuzala noma imijikelezo yokuzalela inyoni kuyisici se-phenological.
URichard Fitter ungumbhali wezincwadi eziningi ezikhuluma ngezimbali, izinyoni kanye nezihloko ezihlangene, ekubeni ngusosayensi wemvelo owaziwa kakhulu ngeminyaka yama-90. izinhlobo zezitshalo ezingamakhulu, ukuhamba kwezimvemvane ngasekupheleni kwehlobo nezinye izimpawu ezibonisa ukuqala nokuphela kwezinkathi. Konke lokhu yizici ze-phenological zezinhlobo.
Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, indodana yakhe u-Alastair naye waba yisazi semvelo futhi esemdala, wakubona ukubaluleka kwamanothi abhalwa nguyise. Benza elinye lamarekhodi ambalwa ayekhona ku-phenology yezinhlobo eziningi. Ngesikhathi eqala ukuwafunda wonke amarekhodi, iplanethi yayivele ifudumala ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, futhi amazinga okushisa emhlabeni wonke ayesevele enyukile ngo-0,6 degrees eminyakeni eyikhulu edlule.
U-Alastair uqaphele ukuthi amarekhodi athathwe ekuqaleni kwawo-385 abengakhombisi iphethini ehambisanayo. Ngokuqhathanisa izinkathi eziqhakaza izitshalo ezingaphezu kuka-XNUMX, wathola ukuthi zazinazo qhubekisela phambili isilinganiso sezinsuku ezi-4. Ezinye izinhlobo zaze zaqhakaza kuze kube amasonto amabili ngaphambili. Ngalokhu, kwaqala ukukhombisa ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kwenzeka ngejubane elimangazayo ngoba, njengoba amazinga okushisa enyuka, izitshalo "zizwa" entwasahlobo ngaphambi kwesikhathi, ngakho ziyaqhakaza.
Bika ngezinguquko ku-phenology
I-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ishicilele umbiko obhekisa ebudlelwaneni obuphakathi kwezinhlobo nokushisa okungenani iminyaka engama-20 edlule. Ezinhlotsheni ezingaphezu kwezingama-500 zezinyoni, izilwane eziphila emanzini nasemanzini, izitshalo nezinye izinto eziphilayo ezifundiwe, Ama-80% aseshintshile, ngendlela umuntu angalindela ngayo ekukhuleni kwamazinga okushisa. Izinto ezinjengosuku lokuzala noma lokufuduka, ubude besikhathi sokukhula, noma usayizi nokusatshalaliswa kwabantu kuguqukile.
Lo mbiko uphetha ngokuthi, kulo lonke ikhulu lama-XNUMX, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu esifundeni, ikakhulukazi ukukhuphuka kwamazinga okushisa njengomphumela onquma kakhulu, kube nomthelela ezinhlelweni zebhayoloji nasemijikelezweni yazo yemvelo.
Kwenziwe uphenyo olwahlukahlukene lapho kwenziwa khona ukucwaninga ukuthi ngabe ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kubulimaza ubudlelwano obuphakathi kwezitshalo nezilwane endaweni efanayo yemvelo. Kwezinye izimo, ukunyuka kwamazinga okushisa kululaza izixhumanisi ezikuchungechunge lokudla kanye nokusebenza kahle kwezinye izinto eziphilayo ukuze ziphile ezindaweni zazo.
Ezinye izilwane nezitshalo zivuka ngaphambi kwesikhathi
Kunezinhlobo zezinyoni ezifana ne-tit enkulu (Parus ezinkulu) eziqala imikhuba yazo yaminyaka yonke yokwakha izidleke ngo-Ephreli nangoMeyi. Ngemuva kophenyo lwalezi zinyoni lapho izicupho zazibekwa khona eduze kwezidleke zazo ukuze zikwazi ukubamba, ukukala, ukukala, njll. Kuphethwe ukuthi, ngemuva kweminyaka eyi-18 yezinyathelo (kusuka ngo-1985 kuya ku-2003), i-phenology ye-tit enkulu ayizange ishintshe, kwazise badla ngosuku olufanayo unyaka nonyaka. Singasho ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu akuzange kuthinte ama-chickadees. Kodwa-ke, kuthinte uhlobo oluthile lwezibungu zovemvane lwasebusuku (I-Operophtera brumata), kanye nolunye uhlobo oluncane kakhulu, kusebenza njengokudla kwamachwane ama-chickadees.
Njengamanje, isibalo esiphezulu samacimbi atholakala amaphuphu ama-chickadees kusasele amasonto amabili ngaphambi kuka-1985. Lomvuthwandaba wokwanda kwenani lamacimbi uqondane kahle nesikhathi sokufunwa kakhulu kwamachwane. Manje, ama-chickadees amaningi ayaqandula lapho isikhathi sesibungu sesiphelile. Ngokuya ngokushoda kokudla okulandelayo, ama-chickadees kuphela avuka ngaphambi kwesikhathi yibo kuphela abakwaziyo ukudla amacimbi.
Iwebhu yokudla nayo ilahlekelwa ukuvumelanisa
Akukhona nje kuphela ukuthi izinyoni noma amabhu avumelanisiwe, kodwa futhi amazinga aphansi kochungechunge lokudla. Ibhu londla amaqabunga amancane nathambile ezi-oki lapho kukhona khona izindlu zezinyoni. Ukuze siphile, isibungu kufanele sichamusele njengoba nje efihlekile iqhuma futhi i-oki livuleka. Uma lesi sinambuzane sichanyuselwa eqandeni isikhathi esingaphezu kwezinsuku ezinhlanu ngaphambi kokuba kuqhume isikhuphasha, sizobulawa yindlala. Kuzokwenzeka okufanayo uma lokhu kwenzeka esikhathini esingaphezu kwamasonto amabili kamuva, ngoba amaqabunga e-oki agcwele i-tannin, azondwa yisibungu.
Futhi kungenxa yokuthi emvelweni yonke into ilandelela ibhalansi ngqo, umzuzu ofanele lapho izinhlobo zinamathuba amaningi okusinda. Akukhona ukuthi izinto zisebenza kanjena ngoba "kuyala" noma "kuyaliwe" ngothile, kepha kunalokho ukuthi izinhlobo, izilwane nezitshalo, zinayo le mijikelezo kanjena, ngoba kuwo wonke umlando, ukuziphendukela kwemvelo nokuzivumelanisa nezimo kwenze ukuthi i-phenology yayo ithole lezi zikhathi ngoba izinga lokuphumelela kwayo likhulu.
Ngokuguquka kwesimo sezulu yonke le mijikelezo ishintsha kakhulu. Izinhlobo eziningi zibona ukuthi amathuba azo okusinda anciphile lapho kunezimo ezinjalo ezishintshayo kanye nokuhlukahluka komkhathi. Ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa kubangela ukuqhubekela phambili kwentwasahlobo kanye nemijikelezo yezimbali zezinhlobo eziningi zezitshalo zazo ancike ezilwaneni ukuze zikhule. Uma lokhu sikudonsa ngochungechunge lokudla, siyabona ukuthi kunezinkinga eziningi ku-synchrony yemvelo nokuthi ibhalansi yemvelo entekenteke ayisebenzi ngendlela efanele.