Kusukela ngomhlaka-1 Juni 2017, i-AEMET ibisebenzisa imodeli yenombolo yendawo elinganiselwe ye-Harmonie-Arome, ezongena esikhundleni semodeli ye-HIRLAM kancane kancane. Ngalesi sizathu, le modeli entsha yashicilelwa kuwebhusayithi yangaphandle, futhi kusukela ngaleso sikhathi kuqhubeke, iwebhusayithi ye-AEMET yaqeda ukukhishwa kwe-Deterministic Numerical Model ye-European Center for Medium-Term Forecasting (CEPPM). Isifunda sase-Atlantic, esiphinde sihlanganise iningi le-Europe kanye ne-hemispheres esenyakatho naseningizimu kusukela ngo-D+0. Le mikhiqizo emisha yenza kwenzeke futhi umbono obonakalayo owaphelelwa yisikhathi ngokuhlanganiswa kwe imodeli ye-harmonie kanye nokuvinjelwa kwe-HIRLAM ONR.
Kulesi sihloko sizokutshela ukuthi imodeli ye-Harmonie ihlanganisani, ukuthi iyini futhi yiziphi izinzuzo zayo.
Imodeli ye-Harmony
Ukukhishwa kweziguquguquko ezahlukene kuboniswa njalo emahoreni angu-6, kusukela emahoreni ayi-12 kuye kwayi-132 ngokuhlobene nesiteshi esiyimodeli, esisebenza kabili ngosuku ku-00 kanye ne-12 UTC (ihora elilodwa ngaphansi kwesikhathi sendawo yenhlonhlo ebusika namahora amabili ngaphansi ehlobo) .
Okuguquguqukayo okubonisiwe yilawa:
Indawo:
- Imvula emahoreni ayisithupha okuqala
- Ingcindezi ngesikhathi esithile (iboniswa ngokuzenzakalela)
- Izinga lokushisa ngesikhathi esilinganiselwe
- Ukuba namafu ngesikhathi esithile
- Umoya ngehora elijwayelekile
Kundawo ye-isobaric engu-850 hPa (okulingana cishe no-1,5 km ukuphakama ngokwesilinganiso):
- Izinga lokushisa kanye namandla kumfanekiso ofanayo
- Ngobuso be-isobaric obungu-500 hPa (cishe u-5,5 km):
- Izinga lokushisa kanye namandla kumfanekiso ofanayo
- Ngobuso be-isobaric obungu-300 hPa (cishe u-9 km):
- Umoya namandla kumfanekiso ofanayo
Mayelana nezifunda ze-hemispheric, i-hemisphere esenyakatho ne-southern hemisphere, kusukela emahoreni angu-12 kuya kwangu-132 wesikhathi esinqunyiwe semodeli, ukwethula ukuhamba njalo ngamahora angu-12, ngo-00 no-12 UTC, okuguquguqukayo okulandelayo kudluliswa:
- ingcindezi ebusweni
- Amandla we-Isobaric surface angama-500 hPa
Izinzuzo zemodeli entsha ye-Harmonie
Imodeli ye-Harmonie-arome iyimodeli ye-mesoscale engeyona i-hydrostatic evumela ukulingisa kwe-convection. Ngokuqondene nemodeli yendawo elinganiselwe ye-HIRLAM, osesebenze ku-INM-AEMET iminyaka engama-25, yenze intuthuko enkulu, hhayi kuphela ngokulungiswa kwayo okuphezulu, kodwa ikakhulukazi ekufanisweni kwe-convection kanye nemiphumela yayo ehambisanayo (imvula, imimoya enamandla, isichotho, ukukhishwa kukagesi). Kodwa lokho akuyona ukuphela kwenzuzo ye-Harmonie-arome, futhi iyimodeli enhle kakhulu yokubikezela izinga lokushisa - eliguquguqukayo ngesilinganiso sendawo kakhulu- kanye nezibikezelo zenkungu namafu aphansi, nezinye izenzakalo ezincike kwi-topography, ezitholakala endaweni. Imodeli ye-Harmonie isithuthukisiwe futhi ihlotshaniswa namamodeli we-HIRLAM kanye ne-CEPPM futhi ngenxa yalokho iwafanela kangcono amamodeli wangempela.
download ukubikezela
Iwebhu ihlanganisa nezibikezelo zokugeleza ezivela kumodeli ye-HARMONIE-AROME, ngaphezu kwalezo ezitholakala kusukela ngoJuni 20, okungukuthi: ingcindezi, izinga lokushisa, umoya, ukuvunguza okuphezulu, imvula kanye nekhava yamafu. Umkhiqizo wokukhipha i-post-processing esekelwe kokuqukethwe kwe-«graupel» (isichotho seqhwa noma isichotho esincane) efwini eliguqukayo, elivumelaniswe nesimo sezulu saseSpain. Inani lesikali liyimisebe/km2, lihlanganiswe ehoreni elilodwa noma emahoreni amathathu. Okusho ukuthi, inani lokushaywa kombani okungenzeka lishaye phakathi naleso sikhathi endaweni eyikhilomitha-skwele elilodwa.
Ngomhla ziyisi-6 kuJulayi, 2017, i-AEMET yabamba umbukiso we-Harmonie-arome entsha e-AEMET, lapho izakhiwo zayo ezifanele kakhulu kanye nokuthuthukiswa osekuzuziwe kwachazwa emikhiqizweni engasetshenziswa ukubikezela izehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kanye nokundiza.
Le modeli inesinqumo esivundlile esingu-2,5 km. Kungokwesizukulwane esisha samamodeli angewona ama-hydrostatic axazulula ngokusobala ukuguquguquka okujulile. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imele ukuthuthuka okuphawulekayo kwezibikezelo zendawo, ikakhulukazi ngokuphathelene nalokhu okulandelayo: imvula, imvula enkulu, umoya, izinga lokushisa kanye nenkungu. Ukuthuthukiswa kwemodeli eyinkimbinkimbi enjalo kungafinyelelwa kuphela ngokusebenzisana kwamazwe ngamazwe.
Izinhlelo zokusebenza zokubikezela ezakhiwe ku-AEMET ngokusekelwe kulo modeli nazo zichazwe: Inkambu ye-Harmonie-arome esetshenziswa emisebenzini ye-AEMET, insimu yentshisekelo yezimo ze-convective, okungamandla amamodeli angewona ama-hydrostatic, imodeli yokuzwakala komkhathi yokubikezela kwe-Harmonie-arome, Okusha. Izinkundla nezinye izinhlelo zokusebenza ezitholakalayo Iwebhusayithi yangaphandle ye-AEMET yabasebenzisi bangaphandle kanye nentuthuko yesikhathi esizayo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuqhathanisa phakathi kwamamodeli we-Eurocentre kanye ne-Harmonie-arome kuyaboniswa, nokuthi ababikezeli bangasebenzisa kanjani amasimu amasha e-Harmonie-arome imisebenzi, njengombani, isichotho, noma ukukhanya.
Ekugcineni, umsebenzi oqhubekayo we-AEMET wethulwa ukuze kutholwe i-Probabilistic Prediction Model (AEMET-SREPS) engu-2,5 km, ezotholakala maduze kuwebhusayithi ye-AEMET futhi ezohambisana nezibikezelo ezinqumayo nezibikezelo ezingase zibe khona. Kamuva, uhlelo lokusebenzisa i-Harmonie-arome lwethulwa kwa-AEMET, okuhlanganisa nezigaba eziningi ezilandelanayo zokuthobela.
Imibono
UJavier Calvo, inhloko yendawo yokufanisa ye-ejensi, wachaza ukuthi kufanele kwenziwe ukuthuthukiswa okukhulu, ukubikezela ngokunembile imvula futhi "okubaluleke kakhulu, ikhwalithi yezinto eziphilayo eziqoqayo, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi amanzi eqhwa noma isichotho" kanye nokuqina kwawo " , okungukuthi, uma zinamandla “Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi imodeli 'ayiyona i-hydrostatic', okusho ukuthi, ithwebula kangcono ukunyakaza okuqondile", waphawula. «Akukhona nje kuphela ukuthi ukuqina okubikezelwe kunembe kakhudlwana, futhi kunembe kakhulu nendawo.«, okungukuthi, indawo yomcimbi, icacise umholi wokumodela.
Phakathi kwezinsizakalo eziqaliswe ngenxa yemodeli "i-MeteoRuta", manje etholakala kuwebhusayithi ye-AEMET, lapho abasebenzisi bangaphandle bangabonisana nesimo sezulu emgwaqeni, ngokusho komuntu ophethe ubuchwepheshe bokubikezela kanye nendawo yezicelo .
U-Jesús Montero, Inhloko Yokukhiqiza e-AEMET, ubike ngesigaba sokuqaliswa kwemodeli, echaza ukuthi imodeli yenziwe yatholakala kubasebenzisi kuwebhu. Njengoba ochwepheshe bephikelela, "Harmonie-Arome" iyimodeli “eyinkimbinkimbi kangangokuthi ayikwazi ukuthuthukiswa izwe elilodwa«, ngakho-ke imodeli yadalwa ochwepheshe abavela eziteshini zesimo sezulu ezingu-26 emazweni ahlukene eYurophu naseNyakatho Afrika.
Ngithemba ukuthi ngalolu lwazi ungafunda kabanzi mayelana nobuchwepheshe bemodeli ye-Harmonie yokubikezela isimo sezulu.