Ukuze ukwazi ukwenza izibikezelo ku-meteorology futhi wazi isimo sezulu esizokwenza, i amamodeli wesimo sezulu. Lezi zinhlobo zisekelwe kakhulu kuhlelo lwekhompyutha olukwazi ukucubungula imininingwane ehambelana nesimo sezulu noma umzuzu othize. Lesi sikhathi sihlala sizama ukuba sesikhathini esizayo esiseduze futhi senzelwe izingxenye ezithile zeplanethi nezimo ezithile zengqondo. Ngeke sikuqinisekise ukuthi amamodeli wesimo sezulu angakwazi ukubikezela ngokuqiniseka okuphelele ukuthi isimo sezulu sizoba njani ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezizayo. Eqinisweni, ukunemba okwanele akuqinisekisiwe ngemuva kwezinsuku ezine zokubikezela.
Kulesi sihloko sizokutshela konke odinga ukukwazi ngamamodeli wesimo sezulu nokuthi asebenza kanjani.
Izici eziyinhloko
Izinhlobo zezulu kumele zihlaziye ubuningi bokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Okuguqukayo yilokho okuthonya ungqimba olungezansi lomkhathi esikwaziyo njenge-troposphere. Kulapha lapho kwenzeka khona imicimbi yezulu emikhulu nemicimbi yesimo sezulu. Izinto eziguquguqukayo ezizofundwa yilezi ezilandelayo: ithempelesha, umswakama, amafu, umoya, imisebe yelanga, ingcindezi yasemkhathini, phakathi kokunye. Zonke lezi zinto ziguquke ngokuqhubekayo ngenxa yemisebenzi ethile njengokujikeleza nokuhamba kokuhumusha komhlaba elangeni.
Lapho sebekade behlaziye okuguqukayo, basebenza ngokulinganisa kwezibalo abazama ngazo ukubikezela ngendlela eqonde kakhulu kunenye ukuthi umkhathi uzoziphatha kanjani emahoreni, izinsuku, amasonto, ngisho nezinyanga neminyaka elandelayo. Lezi zinhlobo zezulu ezizama ukulinganisa inani lezinto eziguqukayo kusuka ezinyangeni naseminyakeni zibizwa ngokuthi amamodeli wesimo sezulu. Lokhu kungenxa yomehluko okhona ikakhulukazi phakathi kwesimo sezulu nesimo sezulu. Futhi yileyo ndlela yisayensi efunda isikhathi. Lokho kusho ukuthi, isikhathi esizosenza ngesikhathi esithile. Kodwa-ke, i-climatology iyona ehlola ukuvela kwamanani azo zonke izinto ezisemkhathini esizishilo ngenhla ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Iqoqo lamanani yilokho okwakha isimo sezulu sendawo. Uma sihlaziya endizeni enezingqimba, imodeli ingaba yimbulunga yonke futhi imboze wonke ubukhulu bomhlaba noma besifunda, kulokhu ihlanganisa ingxenye yomhlaba kuphela.
Ukusebenza kwamamodeli wesimo sezulu
Amamodeli wesimo sezulu wokusabalalisa idatha atholakala ngemithombo ehlukile. Lezi zinsuku Zitholakala kuma-radiosonde, iziphuphutheki zesimo sezulu kanye nokubhekwa kwesimo sezulu. Konke lokhu kubukwa kusatshalaliswa ngokungalingani futhi kuyakwazi ukucubungula lokho okunikezwe ngezindlela zokufanisa nokuhlaziya. Lezi zindlela zokuhlaziya ziyakwazi ukusungula imingcele ehlukahlukene ngokuya ngamanani okuguquguquka komkhathi. Onke lawa magugu asetshenziswa ngama-algorithms wezibalo asetshenziswa kulezi zinhlobo zemeteorological.
Ngenxa yalezi zinhlobo, izibalo zingenziwa ngokulinganisa okuthile kwezibalo lapho idatha etholakalayo isetshenziswa futhi etholakala ngalesi sikhathi. Ngenxa yale mininingwane, izilinganiso zingatholwa kumanani lapho amanani okuhlukahluka komkhathi eshintsha khona. Isigqi kulezi zinguquko bavumela ukubikezela isimo somkhathi esikhathini esifushane esizayo.
Lesi ngesinye sezizathu esenza amamodeli wesimo sezulu asuselwe kule datha angasebenzi kahle futhi akhishwe njengoba isikhathi esiningi sidlula. Okungukuthi, lapho esikhathini esizayo sifuna ukukala futhi silinganise isimo somkhathi, lapho sizoba namagugu ngokunemba okuncane.
Izinhlobo ezihlukile
Njengoba kunezinhlobo eziningi zezinhlobo zezimo zezulu, kunokuhlukahluka okukhulu phakathi kwazo. Inani elikhulu lamamodeli lakhiwe izinhlangano nezinhlangano ezahlukahlukene ezinikele ekutadisheni imeteorology. Lezi zinhlangano ezifanayo yizo ezisebenzisa izindlela ezahlukahlukene ukuze zibikezele ukuvela kokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Phakathi kwalezi zinhlobo saziwa kakhulu njenge Uhlelo Lokuqagela Lomhlaba Wonke we-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration yase-United States (NOAA).
Kukhona nezinye izinhlobo zamamodeli ezingaziwa kangako kepha ezisasetshenziselwa lesi sibikezelo. Sine-ECMWF. Kuyimodeli yesibikezelo se-European Medium Term, kuyimodeli yesimo sezulu ekhishwe yilesi sikhungo okuyizifunda ezingama-23 zaseYurophu, okubandakanya neSpain. Ngamunye wabo unenhloso enkulu okuwukubikezelwa kwesimo sezulu yize sisebenzisa amasu ahlukile.
Enye imodeli eyaziwayo ngeye-AVN. Yimodeli yaseMelika Yezindiza. Ukumodela kwayo ukufinyelela okungenani emahoreni ama-5 ukuze ikwazi ukubikezela ukuthi siyoba yini isikhathi lapho umzila wendiza uhlala khona. Ngale ndlela, kuqinisekisiwe ukuthi umdlalo uzokwenziwa ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka.
Abalawuli besimo sezulu kanye namamodeli wesimo sezulu
Abalawuli besimo sezulu yizici ezithonya isimo sezulu somhlaba jikelele. Njengoba sazi, isamba samanani wezinto eziguquguqukayo ezisemkhathini ngokuhamba kwesikhathi yikho okusungula isimo sezulu sesifunda nomhlaba wonke. Ngakho-ke, laba balawuli bezulu babalulekile lapho kusungulwa amamodeli wezulu.
Ake sibheke ngokujulile ukuthi yiziphi izinto eziguquguqukayo zesimo sezulu ezifundwa kumamodeli wezulu:
- Ithempelesha: izinga lokushisa kungenye yezinto eziguquguqukayo ezithonya kakhulu isimo sezulu nesimo sezulu. La magugu ayashintshashintsha ngenxa yenani lokuthambekela kwemisebe yelanga ebusweni bomhlaba.
- Umswakama: Umswakama inani lomhwamuko wamanzi okhona emkhathini. Umswakama uvumela ukuthuthukiswa kwezulu nezimo ezipholile.
- Umoya: imimoya ihamba njengomsebenzi wengcindezi yasemkhathini. Injini yayo eyinhloko yimisebe yelanga ewela ebusweni bomhlaba.
- Ingcindezi yasemkhathini: ingenye yezinjini eziyinhloko zemvula emhlabeni jikelele. Izinguquko zengcindezi zenzeka ngokuguqulwa kwenani lemisebe yelanga ehlasela umhlaba. Ngenxa yalokhu, amaphuzu anengcindezi ephansi yomoya kanti amanye anengcindezi ephezulu ayasungulwa. Ezingxenyeni ezinengcindezi ephansi kunezivunguvungu lapho kwakha khona imvula enamandla futhi ezindaweni ezinengcindezi enkulu kukhona ukushisa okuhle nesimo sezulu esihle.
- Imisebe yelanga: inani lokukhanya kwelanga okushaya ebusweni bomhlaba.
Ngiyethemba ukuthi ngalolu lwazi ungafunda kabanzi ngamamodeli wesimo sezulu nokuthi asebenza kanjani.