Amafu phezu kukaBombai
Ucwaningo olusha lwembula ukuthi ukungcola kukhiqiza kanjani izivunguvungu ezisishiya sinamafu ahlala isikhathi eside, amakhulu futhi aqinile. Ngenyanga kaNovemba i Izinqubo zeNational Academy of Sciences (PNAS), ishicilele eminye imiphumela evala impikiswano ende. Zembula indlela ukungcola okuthinta ngayo ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke. Lo msebenzi uzosiza ukuthuthukisa ukunemba kwesimo sezulu nesimo sezulu.
Abaphenyi abaningi bacabanga ukuthi ukungcoliswa komkhathi kubangela amafu ezikhukhula amakhulu, ahlala isikhathi eside ngokwenza izingqinamba zesiphepho zithambekele kakhulu kumagagasi omoya, nangokukhiqiza ukuhanjiswa kwangaphakathi. Kulolu cwaningo, wabona ukuthi ukungcola, njengesimanga, kwenza amafu aqine kakhulu kepha, ngendlela ehlukile kunalokho obekucatshangwa ngaphambili, ngokwehla kosayizi wezinhlayiya zawo zeqhwa nokwehla kobukhulu besamba sefu. Lo mehluko uthinta ngqo indlela ososayensi abamele ngayo amafu kumamodeli wesimo sezulu.
Lolu cwaningo luvumelanisa esikubona nsuku zonke nalokho okuboniswa kumamodeli wekhompyutha. Ukubheka kukhombisa amafu amise okwe-anvil (IComulonimbus) ephakeme futhi enkudlwana ezinhlelweni zesiphepho eziqukethe ukungcola, kepha amamodeli awakhombisi ngaso sonke isikhathi ukuhlangana okuqinile, ngenxa yalolu cwaningo siyabona ukuthi kungani.
Impilo Eyimfihlo Yamafu
Amafu we-Anvil noma weComulonimbus endaweni engcolisiwe
Amamodeli abikezela isimo sezulu nesimo sezulu awayakhi kabusha impilo yamafu esiphepho kahle, njengoba ewamelela ngezibalo ezilula ezehluleka ukunikeza isithombe esiphelele. Lokhu kuvuselelwa kabusha kudale inkinga kubacwaningi: "Ukungcola kubangela amafu anvil ukuthi ahlale isikhathi eside kunasesibhakabhakeni", kodwa ngani?
Isizathu esisodwa esingaba khona sizungeza ama-aerosol (izinhlayiya ezincane zemvelo noma imvelaphi yomuntu) ezisebenza njengesisekelo samaconsi emafu ezakhelene nawo. Isibhakabhaka esingcolisiwe sinama-aerosol amaningi (intuthu ne-haze) kunaleso esihlanzekile futhi lokhu kuguqulela emanzini amancane enhlayiyana ngayinye. Ukungcola kukhiqiza amaconsi amaningi, kepha amancane.
Inani elikhudlwana lamaconsi amancane lishintsha izici zamafu. Sekuyisikhathi eside kucatshangwa ukuthi amaconsi amakhulu namancane aqala ukusabela kwamaketanga okuholela emafwini amakhulu, ahlala isikhathi eside esikhundleni sokushesha. Amaconsi alula abangela ukuba amanzi akho akhuphuke ngokubanda futhi lokhu kubanda kukhipha ukushisa okuqukethwe amaconsi futhi kuveze ushintsho kwezinga lokushisa elidala ukuhlangana kwangaphakathi. I-convection enamandla kakhulu yenza amaconsi amaningi wamanzi aphakame, ngaleyo ndlela akhe ifu.
Kepha abacwaningi abahlali njalo bebuka ukuhanjiswa okunamandla okukhulu okuhlobene namafu amakhulu futhi ahlala isikhathi eside ezindaweni ezingcolisiwe, okukhombisa ukuthi besilahlekelwa okuthile okumele sikunake.
Ukuxazulula le nkinga, iqembu elibhekele lolu cwaningo linqume ukuqhathanisa iziphepho zangempela zasehlobo namamodeli akhiqizwe ngekhompyutha. Imodeli ibandakanya izakhiwo ezibonakalayo zezinhlayiya zefu kanye nokukwazi ukubona ukuthi ukuhanjiswa kuyaba namandla noma kuthambe. Ukufaniswa kulolu cwaningo kuthathe izinyanga eziyi-6.
I-convection akuyona imbangela.
Idatha yaqoqwa ezindaweni ezintathu ezinamazinga ahlukahlukene okungcola, umswakama nomoya: izindawo ezishisayo zasePacific ezisentshonalanga, eningizimu-mpumalanga yeChina, nasemathafeni amakhulu ase-Oklahoma. Imininingwane itholwe ku-DOE's (US Department of Energy) ARM Climate Research System.
Ukulingiswa kwenziwa ekhompyutheni enkulu ye-Olympus evela e-PNNL (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory). Lokhu kulingisa kwenyanga yeziphepho kufana kakhulu namafu abonwayo njengamanje, kunquma ukuthi amamodeli aphindaphinda amafu esiphepho kahle.
Ukuqaphela lezi zinhlobo kutholakale ukuthi kuzo zonke izimo, ukungcola kukhulisa usayizi, ubukhulu kanye nobude bamafu e-anvil. Kepha ezindaweni ezimbili kuphela (ezishisayo neChina) kubhekwa ukuhanjiswa okunamandla okukhulu kakhulu. E-Oklahoma, ukungcola kwaholela ekuhambiseni izinto ngomusa. Lokhu kungahambisani nalokho obekucatshangwa kuze kube manje kusikisela ukuthi isizathu akusona ukuhanjiswa okunamandla.
Ngokubuyekeza ngokuningiliziwe izakhiwo zamaconsi amanzi namakristalu e-ice ngaphakathi kwamafu, iqembu labacwaningi liphethe ngokuthi ukungcola kukhiqize amaconsi amancane namakristalu e-ice, kungakhathalekile ukuthi akuphi.
Futhi, esibhakabhakeni esicwebezelayo, izinhlayiya zeqhwa ziyasinda futhi zigeleza ngokushesha kusuka emafini anvil, okubenza bachitheke ngokushesha. Esibhakabhakeni esingcolisiwe, amakristalu eqhwa ayemancane futhi ekhanya kakhulu ukuba angahlehli, ngaleyo ndlela kwakha amafu amakhulu, ahlala isikhathi eside.
Igalelo ekufudumaleni kwembulunga yonke.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iqembu lilinganise ukuthi amafu esiphepho anikela kanjani kwi ukufudumeza noma ukupholisa. Lawa mafu apholisa uMhlaba emini ngezithunzi zawo kepha abamba ukushisa njengengubo ebusuku, okwenza ubusuku bufudumele.
Ngokubheka imiphumela yokungcola emafwini esiphepho, siyaqonda ukuthi zingathinta inani lokufudumala kokugcina elibikezelwe umhlaba emashumini eminyaka ezayo. Ukwenza ukumelwa okunembe kakhudlwana kwamafu kumamodeli wesimo sezulu kuyisihluthulelo sokwenza ngcono ukunemba kokubikezela kwesimo sezulu.
Imininingwane engaphezulu: ICumulonimbus, Ukuthola Okubalulekile Kuzinhlayiyana Zasemkhathini Emadolobheni, Amabhawodi wombani ayaqina ngokufudumala komhlaba
Umthombo: I-PNAS