Ukulwa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kubaluleke kakhulu ekusindeni kwezinhlobo zabantu emhlabeni. Ngenxa yososayensi abaningi kanye nophenyo oluphindaphindiwe singafunda kabanzi ngemiphumela emibi yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke, ukwanda kwezimo zemvelo, njll.
Kukho konke lokhu, IBBVA Foundation iklonyelise umklomelo wayo weFrontiers of Knowledge in Climate Change kwizazi zezulu uSyukuro Manabe noJames Hansen. Yini la bantu abayitholile noma abayinikeze isayensi yezulu ukuthola le ndondo?
Ukuthuthukiswa kwamamodeli wokukhishwa kwegesi lokushisa
USyukuro Manabe owazalelwa eJapan noJames Hansen e-United States babe ngamaphayona ekuthuthukiseni amamodeli wezibalo asetshenziselwa ukubala ukuqoqwa kwamagesi akhishwa yimisebenzi yabantu yezomnotho emkhathini. Ngaphezu kokuzibala, balinganisela imiphumela yazo esimweni sezulu seMhlaba.
UManabe ngesikhathi esebenza, uchithe isikhathi sakhe esiningi eku iNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) kanye nePrinceton University. Lapho waqala ukucabanga futhi athuthukise izinhlobo zakhe zezinombolo ukulingisa ukusebenza komkhathi ngeminyaka yama-60. Ngaleso sikhathi bekungaziwa ukuthi ukugxila kwe-CO2 bekhula kakhulu, futhi okuncane kakhulu ukuthi lokhu kukhishwa kungaba nemiphumela emibi esimweni sezulu.
Njengoba ubuchwepheshe buthuthuka, uManabe wafaka izinto zedijithali ocwaningweni lwakhe esebenzisa amakhompyutha. Lokhu kumsizile wakha imodeli yokuqala yokusakazwa komkhathi womhlaba wonke. Ngenxa yale modeli ukwazile ukuthola lokho ukwanda kokuhlushwa kwe-CO2 kukhuphule izinga lokushisa lomhlaba jikelele futhi uma lokhu kuhlushwa kungaphindeka kabili kunalokho okwakukhona ngaleso sikhathi, izinga lokushisa lomhlaba belizonyuka ngama-degree amabili, libe nemiphumela emibi kakhulu emvelweni futhi izinqubo ezingenakulungiswa.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uHansen, owazalwa eminyakeni eyi-10 kamuva, wathatha isethenjwa kuManabe waqala umsebenzi wakhe wokucwaninga owamholela ekusunguleni imodeli nezindlela ezintsha zokukala ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa komhlaba ngenxa yokuqoqwa kwe-CO2 emkhathini. Lokhu kwanda kufinyelela kumadigri ama-4 maqondana nesikhathi sangaphambi kwezimboni, ngaleyo ndlela kulandela inkambiso yamanje.
Bakwazile ukubikezela izinguquko ezibangelwe wukuguquka kwesimo sezulu
Ezinye izizathu ijaji elikwazile ukunika umklomelo kulaba bososayensi ukudala izibikezelo nezindlela zokuhlaziya okuthi, noma kuthuthuka ucwaningo nobuchwepheshe, kumelane nokuhlolwa kwesikhathi. Zinjalo-ke izibikezelo zakhe zokuthi ekuqaleni kwama-80s wabikezela ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzoqala ukuguqulwa kokujikeleza kolwandle, iqhwa lase-arctic, noma ukuvama nokuqina kwesomiso nezikhukhula.
Isithangami nabezindaba sabanqobile sithathe amahora ambalwa futhi babonga futhi baphendula imibuzo nge-videoconference. UHansen ubeke imibono kwizintatheli futhi ubephoqelela ngesidingo sokuyeka ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okubasa ngokushesha. Ngokufuna ukumisa imiphumela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu, Le ukuphela kwendlela yokugwema izinhlekelele ezisilindeleyo.
UHansen uthe ngezinhloso eziningi ezinhle kanye nokwehlisa ukungcola amazwe amazwe azibekele khona ngokwalesi Sivumelwano saseParis, ukuvimbela amagesi kuzoba "okungenakwenzeka" uma izinsalela zihlala "ziyindlela eshibhile yamandla", ngakho-ke unxuse amazwe ukuthi afake intela yekhabhoni ngokushesha okukhulu. Ubuye wathi uma sifuna ukunciphisa amazinga okushisa omhlaba hhayi ukuthi sikhuphuke ngaphezu kwama-degree angu-1,5, Kungenzeka kuphela uma siqala ukunciphisa ukukhishwa komhlaba wonke ngama-2% ngonyaka. Lokhu kwehliswa kufanele kwenziwe manje, ngoba uma silinda eminye iminyaka eyishumi ngaphambi kokuthatha lolu daba njengokubekwe eqhulwini, kuzobe sekwephuze kakhulu ukumisa imiphumela emibi yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu.
Ekugcineni, waxwayisa ukuthi sizolahlekelwa ngokuphelele yiqhwa lase-Arctic esikhathini esizayo esiseduze ngokushintshwa okunamandla kwemisinga yolwandle nokuthi ingxenye yamadolobha amakhulu eplanethi, eseduze nogu, izocwiliswa ukukhuphuka kolwandle ukuphela kwekhulu leminyaka.