Siphila kwixesha apho inkcazelo eninzi ijikeleza kuthi kangangokuba asikwazi ukuzibamba iingcamango ezibalulekileyo nezingundoqo zolwazi. Ngokukodwa ezo zintsonkothileyo, njengezazinzulu. Ukugcwala kolwazi ngamanye amaxesha kunokukhokelela ekubhidekeni. Ithetha nge Umkhenkce olandelayo eSpain kwaye loo nto iyababhida abemi.
Kweli nqaku siza kukuxelela yonke into oyifunayo ukuyazi malunga ne-glaciation elandelayo eSpain kunye nokuba ichaphazela ntoni.
Umkhenkce olandelayo eSpain
Izazinzulu ziqinisekile ukuba ezi zibakala zimbini aziphikisani, kuba eyona nto iphambili sisikali sexesha. Thina bantu siyabhideka xa sicinga ukusuka kumashumi eminyaka ukuya kumashumi amawaka eminyaka. Nantso ke ingongoma.
Ubudala beplanethi yethu enguMhlaba yiminyaka eyi-5 yezigidigidi. Ii-hominids zikhona phezu komhlaba iminyaka eyi-5 yezigidi. Kwaye sikhona kuphela kwimbali (ukubhala, impucuko) iminyaka engamawaka amahlanu. Zonke "zintlanu", zisondele kakhulu, kodwa ngamaxesha ahluke kakhulu.
Ngamafutshane, ixesha esiliphilayo emhlabeni alibalulekanga xa lithelekiswa nobudala beplanethi. Ebudeni beebhiliyoni zeminyaka ukho, imozulu yoMhlaba iye yatshintsha ngokuphawulekayo.
Imiyaka yomkence
Kwimbali yamva nje yomhlaba, imozulu itshintshe kakhulu ngamaxesha abizwa ngokuba yi-ice age, ngexesha apho uMhlaba wawuphantse ugutyungelwe ngumkhenkce. Umzobo we-1 usibonisa ukuguquka kweqondo lokushisa e-Antarctica kwiminyaka eyi-400.000 yokugqibela (umgca obomvu). Sabona imilo yesarha yesarha: ukunyuka ngokukhawuleza nokucotha ukuhla.
Khawufane ucinge ukuba sikwixesha lomkhenkce. Iqondo lobushushu liphantsi kakhulu, umhlaba uzele ngumkhenkce kwaye ngequbuliso ubushushu bunyuka ngokukhawuleza. Singena kwixesha eliphakathi komkhenkce.
Ke emva kwamawaka eminyaka (umjikelo uhlala ujikeleze iminyaka eyi-100.000), sikwixesha lomkhenkce kwakhona. Kwaye i-loop iyaphinda. Kule milinganiso yexesha, ubuninzi benguqu kwimozulu yethu kungenxa yotshintsho olucothayo kwiindlela zeeplanethi ezijikeleze ilanga, ingcamango eyaphuhliswa nguMilankovitch kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-XNUMX.
Namhlanje sikwixesha eliphakathi komkhenkce. Sineplanethi engazange izaliswe ngumkhenkce kangangamawaka eminyaka. Izazinzulu zilibiza eli xesha ngokuba yiHolocene. Kuyo kubonakala ezolimo, impucuko yokuqala enkulu kunye nembali yethu kude kube namhlanje. Yonke into ibonakala ibonisa ukuba i-dynamics yeplanethi iya kuqhubeka kwaye i-avareji yobushushu beplanethi iya kuncipha ngokuthe ngcembe ukuya kwixesha elizayo lomkhenkce. Kodwa khumbula ukuba lo mjikelo uhlala malunga neminyaka eyi-100.000. Ngamanye amazwi, akusayi kubakho xesha lomkhenkce kule nkulungwane, okanye iwaka leminyaka elilandelayo. Kuya kwenzeka kwisikali sexesha elikhethekileyo elingaphaya kokuqonda kwethu, eliqhele ubude bobomi bomntu.
Kodwa kwimbali yamva nje yemozulu yoMhlaba, kukho into engaqhelekanga eyenzekileyo. Izazinzulu ziye zatsho amashumi eminyaka ukuba sibona ukufudumala okungaqhelekanga nokungaqhelekanga. Sifumene isizathu: sikhupha iigesi zegreenhouse. Emva kokuba nditshilo, senza umfuniselo omkhulu kwisijikelezi-langa sethu.
Asazi ngokuthe ngqo ukuba kuya kwenzeka ntoni kwimozulu yoMhlaba kumashumi eminyaka ezayo, kuba kuya kuxhomekeka kumandla ethu (ukukhipha iigesi ezingaphezulu okanye ngaphantsi kwegreenhouse). Sele sintywiliselwe kukufudumala kwehlabathi, kwaye umjikelo wokukhenkceka komkhenkce kunye nokuhlangana komkhenkce uya kuqhubeka, nangona kwixesha elingenakuthelekiswa nanto kwisiganeko ngasinye.
Ukulibaziseka komkhenkce olandelayo eSpain
Ngokutsho koqikelelo, ixesha elizayo lomkhenkce, eliphawula ukuphela kwexesha elifudumeleyo esilinandiphayo ngoku, kufuneka liqale kwiminyaka eyi-1500. Nangona kunjalo, isixa seegesi zegreenhouse eziqokelelana kwiatmosfera yomhlaba zinokuphazamisa iipateni eziqhelekileyo kunye ulibazise ixesha lomkhenkce elilandelayo ngamashumi amawaka eminyaka.
Ezi zizigqibo zophononongo olusuka kwiDyunivesithi yaseFlorida esebenzise imifuziselo yenzululwazi ngeenkwenkwezi ukubala ubungakanani bobushushu belanga obufike kwiatmosfera yoMhlaba ngexesha lomkhenkce kunye naphakathi komkhenkce. Ngokwale modeli, ixesha langoku lokuhlangana komkhenkce liya kuphela kwiminyaka eyi-1.500 yebhiliyoni. Nangona kunjalo, ukuxinana okuphezulu kweegesi zegreenhouse emoyeni kunokuphazamisa iipateni zokupholisa eziqhelekileyo zoMhlaba kuba zibamba ubushushu obuvela kumphezulu weplanethi.
Nangona ithemba leminyaka emininzi yokufudumala ngaphambi kokuba i-ice age elandelayo ihehe, inyaniso kukuba iingxaki ezinxulumene nazo zinokuba nemiphumo emibi kakhulu. UJim Tunnel ulumkisa ngelithi: “Imikhenkce efana neNtshona ye-Antarctica yonakaliswa kukufudumala kwehlabathi. Xa ekugqibeleni ziqhekeka kwaye zibe yinxalenye yomthamo wolwandle, impembelelo kwinqanaba lolwandle liya kuba likhulu.
Ezinye izimvo
Okumangalisayo kukuba, ukufudumala kwehlabathi kunokukhokelela ekwehleni okumangalisayo nge-5 ukuya kwi-10 ngokukaCelsius eYurophu. Ixesha elitsha lide lavulwa ngenxa yelizwekazi elidala. Oku kunokuvakala ngathi kuyamangalisa, kodwa izazinzulu zithi kunokwenzeka ukuba utshintsho lwemozulu lubangela ukuwa kwinkqubo yangoku ye-Atlantic, eyaziwa ngokuba yi-Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Sele isenzeka. Kwakhona, i-AMOC isondela kumda wayo obalulekileyo. Abaphandi bakhuphe isilumkiso esingxamisekileyo kuba iinkqubo zangoku zaselwandle zibalulekile kuzinzo lwemozulu yehlabathi.
Uphononongo olutsha olupapashwe kwi-Nature Climate Change kwaye luxhaswa yiprojekthi ye-TiPES exhaswa ngemali yi-EU, ejolise ekuboneni ngcono ubukho bezinto zokukhutshwa kwindlela yemozulu, igxininisa indlela inkqubo yangoku ye-Atlantic, eyi-A yeGulf Stream, kubonakala ngathi kubonisa "iimpawu ezicacileyo zokungazinzi kunye nokuwa okunokwenzeka". Ukuba oku kuyenzeka, izazinzulu ziqikelela ukuba ziya kuba "nempembelelo enkulu yokupholisa kwimozulu yaseYurophu."
Uphando lwalukhokelwa nguNiklas Boers wePotsdam Institute for Climate Change (PIK), ilungu le-TiPES (i-Tipping Points kwi-Earth System) consortium. Uphononongo lufunyenwe ngovavanyo oluneenkcukacha lokuqwalaselwa kwangoku kunye neempawu zokulumkisa kwangaphambili, njengeepateni zetyuwa emanzini olwandle, ukuba ii-AMOCs zinokuphulukana nokuzinza kwinkulungwane edluleyo.
Ndiyathemba ukuba ngolu lwazi unokufunda ngakumbi malunga ne-glaciation elandelayo eSpain kunye nemiphumo yokutshintsha kwemozulu.