U-El Niño yinto yemozulu ejikelezayo kwimijikelo ye-5 ukuya kwi-7 iminyaka. Ngaphandle kozinzo kulo nyaka ka-2017, uMbutho wemozulu weMoor (WMO) awukhuphi i-100% ukuba le meko yemozulu inokuqhubeka.
Le nto ivuthela imimoya yorhwebo eya ePeru nase-Ecuador, ebangela izaqhwithi ezinamandla kwezi ndawo zikhokelela kwizikhukula ezinkulu. Kwelinye icala, e-India ibangela imbalela enkulu ebangela ukutya kunye neengxaki zezolimo. Ngaba into ka-El Niño iya kwenzeka kwakhona ngo-2017?
Inokwenzeka kakhulu ukuba yenzeke
I-WMO imisela iimeko ezinokubakho zeziganeko ezithile zemozulu ngokusekwe kwizinto ezithile ezinje ngokutshintsha koxinzelelo, ulwalathiso lomoya, izaqhwithi ezinokubakho, njl. Kungenxa yoko le nto, ngokusekwe kubungqina obuthile, ikhuphe ingxelo isithi ukusuka kubudala obuphezulu kunokubakho iimeko ngemozulu ezahlukeneyo ukusuka kwimeko yokungathathi cala ukuya kwisiqendu se-El Niño, kodwa yomndilili.
Uthetha ukuthini amandla aphakathi? Ewe, izaqhwithi kunye neenkanyamba ezinokuveliswa ngu-El Niño ziya kuba zincinci kakhulu kunesiqhelo. Imimoya yorhwebo iza kuvuthuza ngamandla amancinci, engazukudala imimandla emikhulu kakhulu ebangela ukuba izaqhwithi zinamandla kakhulu. Izazi zemozulu zineemodeli ezichaza ukutshintsha kwemozulu kunye nemeteorology, kwaye enkosi kubo banokuqinisekisa ukuba kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2017 Into ka-El Niño inokwenzeka ngamathuba aphakathi kwama-50 nama-60%.
Kwelinye icala, amathuba okuba imeko-bume yesiqingatha sesibini sonyaka ingathathi cala ngama-40%.
El Niño into
Njengoko le nto, nangona isaziwa, kunokuba nzima ukuyiqonda, ndiza kuphawula kuhlolo olufutshane. Le nto ivelisa imisinga yamanzi ashushu kuLwandlekazi lwePasifiki. Oku kubangela ukwanda kobushushu elwandle kunxweme. Njengoko sisazi kakuhle, umoya oshushu uhlala unyukela emoyeni kwaye ulapho apho, xa ungqubana nemikhosi ebandayo yomoya, uyajiya kwaye uqalise ukuvelisa ngokuthe nkqo amafu e-cumulonimbus. La mafu ahlala engunobangela wezaqhwithi kwaye, Iziganeko zemozulu ezibi kakhulu.
Isiqendu sokugqibela sika-El Niño senzeke kwikota yesine yonyaka ka-2015 nasekuqaleni kuka-2016 (kungoko amaqondo obushushu aphezulu ahlupheke kobo busika) kwaye abe neziphumo ezibi kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi. Kuya kufuneka sithathele ingqalelo ukuba i-El Niño ineziphumo phantse kuyo yonke iplanethi, kuba umsinga wolwandle uthwala ubushushu kuzo zonke iindawo.
Umonakalo obangelwe ngu-El Niño
Nangona imeko ye-El Niño ingokwemvelo, ngenxa yotshintsho lwemozulu kunye nokuzinziswa kwamaqondo obushushu ehlabathi iyomeleza kwaye inyuse ukuphindaphindeka kwayo. I-El Niño ngo-2015 ichaphazele abantu abazizigidi ezi-4,2 eMbindi Merika, abazizigidi ezi-4,7 kwintshona yePacific kunye nezigidi ezingama-30 kumazantsi eAfrika, bachaphazeleka yindlala kunye nokunqongophala kokutya ngenxa yembalela ende. Ukongeza, yabangela iimvula ezinkulu zasekhaya ezivela kwiiIiGalapagos Islands ukuya kunxweme lwase-Ecuador nasePeru, Babangela ukusweleka kwe-101, i-19 yanyamalala, i-353 yalimala, i-140.000 yexhoba kunye ne-940.000 echaphazelekayo.
Okwangoku, iimeko zobushushu bamaza olwandle asempuma ye-Pacific athe achaphazela kakhulu iPeru kunye namazwe akufutshane nawo anciphile. Oku kubangela ukuba iimeko ze-El Niño zingathathi cala.
La Niña into
Kwelinye icala, iingcali zemozulu yeWMO zathi umcimbi waseLa Niña awunakulindeleka. Ngokungafaniyo no-El Niño, obangela ukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu abantu basePacific, I-La Niña ibangela ukwehla kuzo. Kungenxa yoko le nto eminye imimandla enengxaki yembalela xa i-El Niño isenzeka ithambekele ekuhluphekeni yimvula enkulu ebenza banyukele kumndilili oqhelekileyo okanye ngokuchaseneyo.
ILa Niña ikwanxulunyaniswa nokwanda kwenkanyamba kulwandlekazi lweAtlantic.