Imodeli yeHarmony

imodeli yemvisiswano

Ukusukela nge-1 kaJuni ngo-2017, i-AEMET ibiqhuba imodeli yamanani yendawo elinganiselweyo yeHarmonie-Arome, eya kuthi ngokuqhubekayo ithathe indawo yemodeli yeHIRLAM. Ngenxa yesi sizathu, le modeli entsha yapapashwa kwiwebhusayithi yangaphandle, kwaye ukususela ngoko, i-website ye-AEMET yagqiba imveliso ye-Deterministic Numerical Model ye-European Centre for Medium-Term Forecasting (CEPPM). Ummandla weAtlantiki, oquka uninzi lweYurophu kunye nehemispheres esemantla namazantsi njengeD+0. Ezi mveliso zintsha zenza ukuba kwenzeke kwakhona umbono obonakalayo owaphelelwayo kunye nokufakwa kwe imodeli yeharmonie kunye nokuthintelwa kwe-HIRLAM ONR.

Kweli nqaku siza kukuxelela ukuba imodeli yeHarmonie iqulethwe yintoni, yintoni na kwaye yintoni inzuzo yayo.

Imodeli yeHarmony

Imitha yelanga

Imveliso yeenguqu ezahlukeneyo iboniswa rhoqo kwiiyure ze-6, ukusuka kwi-12 ukuya kwiiyure ze-132 ngokumalunga nomjelo womzekelo, uqhuba kabini ngosuku kwi-00 kunye ne-12 UTC (iyure enye ngaphantsi kwexesha lendawo yepeninsula ebusika kunye neeyure ezimbini ngaphantsi kwehlobo) .

Iinguqu ezibonisiweyo zezi zilandelayo:

Indawo:

  • Imvula kwiiyure ezintandathu zokuqala
  • Uxinzelelo ngexesha eliqhelekileyo (eliboniswa ngokungagqibekanga)
  • Iqondo lobushushu ngexesha elibekiweyo
  • Ukufukama ngexesha elithile
  • Umoya ngeyure eqhelekileyo

Kumphezulu we-isobaric we-850 hPa (okulingana malunga ne-1,5 km ukuphakama ngokomndilili):

  • Iqondo lobushushu kunye nokubanakho kumfanekiso ofanayo
  • Kumphezulu we-isobaric we-500 hPa (malunga ne-5,5 km):
  • Iqondo lobushushu kunye nokubanakho kumfanekiso ofanayo
  • Kumphezulu we-isobaric we-300 hPa (malunga ne-9 km):
  • Umoya kunye namandla kumfanekiso ofanayo

Ngokumalunga nemimandla ye-hemispheric, i-hemisphere esemantla kunye ne-hemisphere esemazantsi, ukusuka kwii-12 ukuya kwiiyure ze-132 zexesha eliqhelekileyo lomzekelo, ubonisa ukuhamba rhoqo kwiiyure ze-12, kwi-00 kunye ne-12 ye-UTC, ezi ziguquguqukayo zilandelayo zigqithisiwe:

  • uxinzelelo lomphezulu
  • I-Isobaric surface potential of 500 hPa

Izinto ezilungileyo zemodeli entsha yeHarmonie

imodeli ye-harmonie

Imodeli ye-Harmonie-arome imodeli ye-mesoscale engeyiyo-hydrostatic evumela ukulinganisa kwe-convection. Ngokuphathelele imodeli yendawo encinci yeHIRLAM, ebisebenza kwi-INM-AEMET iminyaka engama-25, yenze imigudu emikhulu, kungekhona kuphela kwisisombululo sayo esiphezulu, kodwa ngokukodwa ukulinganisa i-convection kunye nemiphumo ehambelana nayo (imvula, imimoya enamandla, isichotho, ukukhutshwa kombane). Kodwa leyo ayisiyiyo kuphela inzuzo yeHarmonie-arome, ikwayimodeli elungileyo yoqikelelo lobushushu-eguquguqukayo kwinqanaba lendawo kakhulu- kunye noqikelelo lwenkungu kunye namafu aphantsi, kunye nezinye izinto ezixhomekeke kwi-topography, ezifunyenwe kwindawo. Imodeli yeHarmonie iphuculwe kwaye ihambelana ne-HIRLAM kunye ne-CEPPM imodeli kwaye ngoko ihambelana ngcono neemodeli zangempela.

Khuphela uqikelelo

uqikelelo lwemozulu

Iwebhu iphinda ibandakanye ukubikezela kokuhamba kwe-HARMONIE-AROME imodeli, ngaphezu kwezo zikhoyo ukususela ngo-Juni 20, ezizezi: uxinzelelo, ukushisa, umoya, i-gusts esiphezulu, imvula kunye nesigubungelo samafu. Imveliso yokukhupha i-post-processing esekelwe kumxholo we-«graupel» (isichotho seqhwa okanye isichotho esincinci) kwifu eliguquguqukayo, eliguqulelwe kwimozulu yokukhupha yaseSpain. Ixabiso lesikali yimitha / km2, ehlanganiswe kwiyure enye okanye kwiiyure ezintathu. Oko kukuthi, linani lemibane enokuthi ibethe ngelo xesha kwisithuba esisisikwere sekhilomitha.

NgoJulayi 6, 2017, i-AEMET ibambe umboniso weHarmonie-arome entsha e-AEMET, apho iipropati zayo ezifanelekileyo kunye nophuculo olusele luphunyeziwe lwachazwa kwiimveliso ezinokuthi zisetyenziswe ukuqikelela imozulu embi kunye nokuhamba ngenqwelomoya.

Le modeli inesisombululo esithe tye se-2,5 km. Kukwisizukulwana esitsha seemodeli ezingezizo ze-hydrostatic ezizisombulula ngokucacileyo kwi-convection enzulu. Ukongeza, imele ukuphucuka okubonakalayo koqikelelo lwasekhaya, ngakumbi ngokubhekiselele kwezi ziguquguqukayo zilandelayo: imvula, imvula enkulu, umoya, ubushushu kunye nenkungu. Ukuphuhliswa komzekelo onjalo onzima kunokufezekiswa kuphela ngentsebenziswano yamazwe ngamazwe.

Izicelo zokubikezela eziphuhliswe kwi-AEMET ngokusekelwe kulo mzekelo zichazwe kwakhona: Intsimi ye-Harmonie-arome esetyenziswe kwimisebenzi ye-AEMET, intsimi yomdla kwiimeko ze-convective, okungamandla eemodeli ezingenayo i-hydrostatic, imodeli yokuvakala kwe-atmospheric ye-Harmonie-arome yokubikezela, eNtsha. Imimandla kunye nezinye izicelo ezifumanekayo Iwebhusayithi ye-AEMET yangaphandle kubasebenzisi bangaphandle kunye nophuhliso lwexesha elizayo.

Ukongeza, ukuthelekiswa phakathi kweemodeli ze-Eurocentre kunye neHarmonie-arome kubonisiwe, kwaye ababikezeli banokusebenzisa njani amasimi amatsha eHarmonie-arome e. imisebenzi, efana nombane, isichotho, okanye ukubonakalisa.

Ekugqibeleni, umsebenzi oqhubekayo we-AEMET ubonisiwe ukufumana i-2,5 km ye-Probabilistic Prediction Model (AEMET-SREPS), eza kufumaneka kungekudala kwiwebhusayithi ye-AEMET kwaye eya kuncedisa uqikelelo oluqinisekileyo kunye noqikelelo olunokwenzeka. Emva koko, isicwangciso sokuphunyezwa kwe-Harmonie-arome sanikezelwa kwi-AEMET, kubandakanywa nezigaba ezininzi ezilandelelanayo zokuthotyelwa.

Imibono

UJavier Calvo, intloko yendawo yokulinganisa i-arhente, wachaza ukuba ukuphuculwa okukhulu kufuneka kwenziwe, kuqikelelwe ngokuchanekileyo imvula kwaye "okubaluleke kakhulu, umgangatho wezinto eziphilayo eziqokelelwayo, nokuba amanzi ekhephu okanye isichotho" kunye nobukhulu babo " , oko kukuthi, ukuba banamandla "Oku kungenxa yokuba imodeli 'ayiyi-hydrostatic', oko kukuthi, ithatha ngcono intshukumo ethe nkqo", watsho. «Asikuphela nje ukuba ubunzulu obuxelwe kwangaphambili buchaneke ngakumbi, bukwachaneke ngakumbi ngokwendawo.«, oko kukuthi, indawo yesiganeko, ichaze inkokeli yomzekelo.

Phakathi kweenkonzo eziqaliswe ngenxa yomzekelo "i-MeteoRuta", ekhoyo ngoku kwiwebhusayithi ye-AEMET, apho abasebenzisi bangaphandle banokubonisana nesimo sezulu endleleni, ngokutsho komntu ophethe iteknoloji ye-forecast kunye nezicelo indawo .

UJesús Montero, iNtloko yoMveliso kwi-AEMET, ingxelo malunga nesigaba sokuphunyezwa kwemodeli, echaza ukuba imodeli yenziwe yafumaneka kubasebenzisi kwiwebhu. Njengoko iingcali zigxininisa, "Harmonie-Arome" ngumzekelo “ontsonkothileyo kangangokuba awunakuphuhliswa lilizwe elinye«, ngoko imodeli yenziwa ngabachwephesha abavela kwizikhululo zemozulu ze-26 kumazwe ahlukeneyo eYurophu naseMntla Afrika.

Ndiyathemba ukuba ngolu lwazi unokufunda ngakumbi malunga netekhnoloji yemodeli yeHarmonie yokubikezela imozulu.


Umxholo wenqaku uyabambelela kwimigaqo yethu imigaqo yokuziphatha yokuhlela. Ukuxela impazamo cofa apha.

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  1. Uxanduva lwedatha: UMiguel Ángel Gatón
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