Umntu ebesoloko enomdla wokwazi imozulu kwaye uyiqikelele. Enkosi kuphuhliso lwetekhnoloji, kukho iindlela ezahlukeneyo zekhompyuter ezinceda ukuqikelela ukuba imozulu iza kwenza ntoni kwiintsuku ezimbalwa emva koko. Namhlanje siza kuthetha Imodeli yeGFS. Enye yeemodeli ezibaluleke kakhulu kwaye enye inokubaluleka okukhulu kwihlabathi.
Ke ngoko, siza kunikezela eli nqaku ukuba likuxelele yonke into ekufuneka uyazi ngemodeli ye-GFS, iimpawu zayo kunye nokubaluleka kwayo.
Yintoni imodeli yeGFS
Oonobumba bokuqala bamagama ahambelana neNkqubo yeHlabathi yeHlabathi. NgesiSpanish oko kuthetha njengenkqubo yehlabathi yokuthintela, nangona yaziwa ngcono ngamanye amagama. Luhlobo lweemodeli zezibalo ezisetyenziselwa ukuqikelela imozulu. Yenziwe kwaye ngoku isetyenziswa nguLawulo lweLwandlekazi lweSizwe kunye neAtmospheric Administration yaseMelika.Yimodeli yemathematics ehlaziywa ngaphezulu kwamaxesha ama-4 ngosuku. Kuxhomekeka kwidatha efunyenwe kwiimozulu ezahlukeneyo, uqikelelo lunokwenziwa ukuya kwiintsuku ezili-16 kwangaphambili.
Kuyaziwa ukuba ezi zibikezelo azithembeki ngokupheleleyo kuba amandla emozulu anokutshintshwa ngokulula. Iimpawu zomoya kunye nemozulu ekhoyo zixhomekeke kwixabiso lezinto ezininzi eziguqukayo ngaxeshanye. Uninzi lwezi zinto zixabisekileyo zichaphazeleka ngokuthe ngqo sisixa semitha yelanga echaphazela iplanethi yethu. Ngoku ka inani lemitha yelanga ezinye izinto eziguquguqukayo ziguqula ngokuqala ngamaqondo obushushu nolawulo lomoya.
Kuyamkeleka ukuba uqikelelo lwemodeli ye-GFS alusiniki ukuthembeka okuphezulu emva kweentsuku ezisi-7. Kunokuthiwa emva kweentsuku eziyi-3-4 akusekho kuchaneka ngokupheleleyo. Uninzi lwamaziko emozulu ngemozulu kunye neearhente zihambisa iziphumo ezininzi ezivela kule modeli, ngakumbi ezo zidlula kwiintsuku ezili-10 kamva.
Iimodeli zokuxelwa kwangaphambili kwemozulu
Ukuze uqikelele imozulu, kufuneka iimodeli ezahlukeneyo zamanani. Ezi modeli zamanani zithatha amaxabiso eziguquguqukayo zomoya kwaye ngeendlela ezilinganayo imeko yezi zinto zixabisekileyo inokwaziwa kungekudala. Kukho iimodeli ezi-4 zamanani oqikelelo lwemozulu olusetyenziswa kakhulu kwihlabathi liphela:
- INkqubo eDibeneyo yokuqikelela IZiko laseYurophu loQikelelo lwemozulu oluphakathi.
- I-Global Environmental Multiscale Imodeli yaseCanada.
- Inkqubo yokuQikelelwa kweAtmospheric yeNavy Umkhosi wase-US oxhobileyo.
- GFS (Inkqubo yeHlabathi yeHlabathi).
Ezi ziimodeli ezisetyenziswa kakhulu kuqikelelo lwemozulu kwixesha eliphakathi kunye nakwinqanaba le-synopic.
Imodeli yaseYurophu yeGFS
Nje ukuba siyazi indima yoluhlobo lwemodeli yokuqikelela imozulu, kufuneka sizisekele kumahluko okhoyo kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo zamazwe ehlabathi. Ngokukodwa, kuya kufuneka ujonge imodeli yeGFS yaseYurophu. Ngaba yile modeli Inezibonelelo ezininzi ngaphezulu komntu olwela phezulu owenziwe ngurhulumente waseMelika waseMelika. Ukuba sithelekisa zombini ezi modeli, yingxoxo-mpikiswano eya kuba nesiphelo. Zombini zineempawu ezintle kwaye zixela kwangaphambili ngokusondeleyo. Azikho iimvavanyo zenjongo esele zenziwe ngumbutho osebenza ngokuzimeleyo ukumisela ukuba yeyiphi kwezi modeli zezona zilungileyo ukuze zikwazi ukuqikelela imozulu.
Ngaphandle kwento yokuba akukho modeli zimbini ophumeleleyo kunenye, uninzi lweengcali kwicandelo zikhetha imodeli yaseYurophu. Olunye umahluko ophambili phakathi kwale modeli kunye neMelika yitekhnoloji yayo. Ineenkqubo zekhompyuter eziphucukileyo nezixabisa kakhulu ezivumela ukuba zisebenze ngendlela efanelekileyo. Ngobu buchwephesha bunobunkunkqele, kufezekiswa ngokuchanekileyo, ukulungelelaniswa kunye nokusonjululwa okuphezulu koqikelelo lomoya.
Uninzi lweengcali zithi imodeli ye-GFS yaseYurophu ibhetele kakhulu kune-United States malunga nokulinganisa kwedatha. Ingxoxo abayisebenzisayo kukuba igqibelele ngakumbi kwaye inikezela ngesixa esikhulu solwazi oluqinisekisiweyo. Ukwenza umzekelo ukuze umahluko phakathi kweemodeli zaseYurophu nezaseMelika zibonakale, iYurophu inguye Iyakwazi ukwenza 50 ukuya kwimidlalo yomoya Umjikelo ngamnye woqikelelo, ngelixa iNyakatho Melika inokwenza kuphela ukulinganisa okungama-20 ngexesha.
Imodeli ye-GFS eSpain
Kukwakhona le modeli yesimo sezulu kwilizwe lethu. Le modeli iqhuba nganye kwimodeli yayo kwiindawo ezininzi. Makhe sibone ukuba zithini ezi ndawo:
- Eyokuqala yenziwa ngesisombululo esiphakamileyo nesingcono kunokuba ihlala inyuka iye kwiiyure ezingama-192, ezilingana neentsuku ezisi-8 ezineemephu zazo zonke iiyure ezi-6 zokuxelwa kwangaphambili.
- Elinye icandelo lokuxelwa kwangaphambili linesisombululo esisezantsi. Kwaye ibandakanya kuphela phakathi kwama-204 nama-384 eeyure, okuya kuba ziintsuku ezili-16 kwiimephu zazo zonke iiyure ezili-12. Njengoko kulindelwe, esi sixhobo sinesisombululo esisezantsi, kuba njengoko sigubungela iintsuku ezininzi, asinakukwenza ngokuchaneka okufanayo.
Kwintsimi yaseSpain, le modeli ihlala isetyenziswa malunga namaxesha ama-4 ngemini ukuze ikwazi ukuqikelela ixesha elifanelekileyo lokuqikelela. Kunokuthiwa isetyenziswa ngentsimbi ye-0, ngo-6 nge-12 nangentsimbi ye-18. Ngokubhekisele kuhlaziyo lweemephu ezinokuboniswa ukubona iziphumo zoqikelelo, zenziwa ngexesha lokwenyani ukusuka nge-3: 30, 9: 30, 15: 30 kunye ne-21: 30 ye-UTC
Kuya kufuneka kuthathelwe ingqalelo ukuba olu hlobo lweemodeli zemozulu zineempazamo zazo kuba eziguquguqukayo zemozulu azisebenzi kakuhle. Ke ngoko, siyayibona loo nto iingxelo zemozulu ezininzi azilunganga ngokuqikelela kuba ukuvela kweatmosfera akusoloko kulula ukuqikelela. Ezinye iipateni ezinje ngokusekwa kwezaqhwithi okanye ii-anticyclone zinokuba lula. Nangona kunjalo, ukuqikelela ukufuduka kwezi zomoya zinzima ngakumbi ukuqikelela.
Ndiyathemba ukuba olu lwazi ungafunda ngakumbi malunga nemodeli ye-GFS, iimpawu zayo kunye nokubaluleka kwayo.