Iimodeli zemozulu

Iimodeli zokuxelwa kwangaphambili

Ukuze ube nakho ukwenza uqikelelo kwimeteorology kwaye wazi imozulu eza kuyenza, i Iimodeli zemozulu. Ezi modeli ikakhulu zisekwe kwinkqubo yekhompyuter enakho ukucwangcisa ulwazi oluhambelana nemozulu okanye umzuzu othile. Lo mzuzu uhlala uzama ukuba kwikamva elikufutshane kwaye usekwe kwiindawo ezithile zeplanethi nakwizimo ezithile zengqondo. Asinakuqinisekisa ukuba iimodeli zemozulu zinokuqikelela ngokuqinisekileyo ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba imozulu iya kuba njani kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezizayo. Ngapha koko, ukuchaneka ngokwaneleyo akuqinisekiswanga emva kweentsuku ezi-4 zokuxelwa kwangaphambili.

Kule nqaku siza kukuxelela yonke into ofuna ukuyifumana malunga neemodeli zemozulu kunye nendlela esebenza ngayo.

Iimpawu eziphambili

Iimodeli zemozulu kunye notshintsho

Iimodeli zemozulu kufuneka zihlalutye ubuninzi bezinto eziguquguqukayo zemozulu. Izinto eziguquguqukayo zezo zinempembelelo kumaleko asezantsi omoya esiwaziyo njenge troposphere. Kulapha apho kwenzeka khona iminyhadala yemozulu emikhulu kunye neziganeko zemozulu. Izinto ezinokufundwa zezi zilandelayo: ubushushu, ukufuma, ubumnyama, umoya, imitha yelanga, uxinzelelo lomoya, phakathi kwezinye. Zonke ezi zinto zixabisekileyo zikwinguqu eqhubekayo ngenxa yemisebenzi efana nokujikeleza kunye nentshukumo yokuguqula umhlaba elangeni.

Nje ukuba bahlalutye izinto eziguquguqukayo, basebenza ngokulingana kwemathematika abathi bazame ukuqikelela ngendlela ethe ngqo kunenye indlela umoya oya kuthi uziphathe ngayo kwezi yure zilandelayo, iintsuku, iiveki kunye neenyanga kunye neminyaka. Ezi modeli zemozulu ezizama ukuqikelela ixabiso lezinto eziguquguqukayo ukusuka kwiinyanga nakwiminyaka zibizwa ngokuba ziimodeli zemozulu. Oku kungenxa yomahluko okhoyo ikakhulu phakathi kwemozulu nemozulu. Kwaye yile ndlela yindlela yesayensi efunda ixesha. Koko kukuthi, ixesha eliza kuyenza ngexesha elinikiweyo. Nangona kunjalo, iklimatology yeyona iphonononga ukuvela kwamaxabiso kuzo zonke izinto eziguquguqukayo zemozulu esizikhankanyileyo ngentla kwexesha.

Iseti yamaxabiso yinto eyenza imeko yemozulu yendawo. Ukuba sihlalutya inqwelomoya ojikelezayo, umfuziselo unokubakho kwihlabathi liphela kwaye ugubungele ubungakanani bomhlaba wonke okanye kwinqanaba lengingqi, kule meko kugubungela inxenye yomhlaba kuphela.

Ukusebenza kweemodeli zemozulu

Iimodeli zemozulu

Iimodeli zemozulu zihambisa idatha efumaneka kwimithombo eyahlukeneyo. Le mihla Zifumaneka kwii-radiosonde, i-satellite yezulu kunye nokuqwalaselwa kwemeteorological. Zonke ezi zinto ziqwalaselweyo zisasazwa ngokungalinganiyo kwaye ziyakwazi ukuqhubekekisa ezo zinikezwe ngokudibanisa kunye neendlela zohlalutyo. Ezi ndlela zokuhlalutya ziyakwazi ukuseka iiparameter ezahlukeneyo ngokusekwe kumaxabiso eziguquguqukayo zomoya. Onke la maxabiso asetyenziswa zii-algorithms zezibalo ezisetyenziswa kwezi modeli zemozulu.

Enkosi kwezi modeli, ukubalwa kunokwenziwa ngokulinganisa okuthile kwezibalo apho idatha efunyenweyo isetyenziswa kwaye ekhoyo ngoku. Ngombulelo kwezi datha, uqikelelo lunokufumaneka kumaxabiso apho amaxabiso eziguquko zemozulu atshintsha. Isingqisho kolu tshintsho bavumela ukuqikelela imeko yomoya ojikeleze ixesha elifutshane kwikamva.

Esi sesinye sezizathu zokuba kutheni iimodeli zemozulu ezisekwe kule datha zingasebenzi kwaye zikhuphe njengoko ixesha lihamba. Oko kukuthi, okungakumbi kwikamva apho sifuna ukulinganisa kwaye siqikelele imeko yomoya ojikeleze umhlaba, kokukhona siya kuba nexabiso ngokuchanekileyo.

Imodeli eyahlukileyo

zithini iimodeli zemozulu

Kuba kukho iintlobo ezininzi zeemeteorological, kukho umahluko omkhulu phakathi kwazo. Inani elikhulu leemodeli liphuhlisiwe ziiarhente ezahlukeneyo kunye nemibutho ezinikele ekufundeni ngemozulu. Le mibutho ikwayiyo ephumeza iindlela ezahlukeneyo zokwenza uqikelelo lwemozulu eziguquguqukayo. Phakathi kwezi modeli saziwa kakhulu njenge Inkqubo yoQikelelo lwehlabathi yoLawulo lweSizwe lwe-Oceanic kunye neAtmospheric yase-United States (NOAA).

Kukho nezinye iintlobo zeemodeli ezingaziwa kangako kodwa ezisasetyenziswayo kwesi siqikelelo. Sine-ECMWF. Le yimodeli yoqikelelo lweXesha eliPhakathi laseYurophu, iyimodeli yoqikelelo ekhutshwe leli ziko apho amazwe aseYurophu angama-23, kubandakanya iSpain. Inye nganye yazo ineenjongo eziphambili kuqikelelo lwemozulu nangona isebenzisa ubuchule obahlukeneyo.

Enye imodeli eyaziwayo yile ye-AVN. Yimodeli yaseMelika yokuhamba ngenqwelomoya. Imodeli yayo yokufikelela ubuncinci iiyure ezi-5 ukuze ikwazi ukuqikelela ukuba ubude bendlela yendiza buya kuba yintoni. Ngale ndlela, kuqinisekisiwe ukuba umdlalo uza kwenziwa ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka.

Abalawuli bemozulu kunye neemodeli zemozulu

Abalawuli bemozulu zezona zinto zichaphazela imozulu yehlabathi. Njengoko sisazi, isixa samaxabiso eziguquguqukayo zomoya ngokuhamba kwexesha sisiseko semozulu yengingqi kunye nehlabathi liphela. Ke ngoko, aba balawuli bemozulu babalulekile xa beseka iimodeli zemozulu.

Masibone nzulu ukuba zeziphi izinto eziguquguqukayo zemozulu ezifundwayo kwiimodeli zemozulu:

  • Ubushushu: iqondo lobushushu yenye yezinto eziguquguqukayo ezinefuthe kwimozulu nakwimozulu. La maxabiso ayatshintsha ngenxa yobungakanani bokuthambeka kwemitha yelanga kumphezulu womhlaba.
  • Ukufuma: Ukufuma bubungakanani bomphunga wamanzi okhoyo emoyeni. Ukufuma kuvumela ukukhula kwemvula kunye neendawo ezipholileyo.
  • Umoya: Umoya uyahamba njengomsebenzi woxinzelelo lomoya. Injini yayo ephambili yimitha yelanga ewela phezu komhlaba.
  • Uxinzelelo lomoya: yenye yeenjini eziphambili zemvula kwihlabathi jikelele. Utshintsho koxinzelelo lwenzeka xa kukho uguquko kwimitha yelanga ehlasela umhlaba. Ngenxa yoko, amanqaku anexinzelelo lomoya ophantsi kwaye amanye enoxinzelelo olukhulu asekiwe. Kwiindawo zoxinzelelo oluphantsi kukho izaqhwithi apho imvula inamandla khona kwaye kwiindawo zoxinzelelo oluphezulu kukho ubushushu obuhle kunye nemozulu elungileyo.
  • Imitha yelanga: lilanga elithe labetha phezu komhlaba.

Ndiyathemba ukuba ngolu lwazi ungafunda ngakumbi malunga neemodeli zemozulu kunye nendlela ezisebenza ngayo.


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