Igaqa elibandayo

ukwanda kwengqele kwindawo ethile

Njengoko amaqondo obushushu ehlabathi eqhubeka enyuka, kuye kwanyuka ulwandle olubandayo kuMntla weAtlantiki nto leyo eye yadida izazinzulu kangangeminyaka. Lo "mngxuma" wokufudumala kuMntla weAtlantiki, owaziwa ngokuba Igaqa elibandayo. Kwinkulungwane edluleyo, amaqondo obushushu ehlabathi anyuke nge-avareji ye-1°C, ngoxa umngxuma oshushu osemazantsi eGreenland uye waphola nge-0,9°C.

Kweli nqaku siza kukuxelela yonke into okufuneka uyazi malunga neCold Blob, iimpawu zayo kunye nophando lwamva nje.

Igaqa elibandayo

igaqa elibandayo

Uphando lwangaphambili luye lwanxulumanisa umngxuma wokufudumala nemisinga yolwandle ebuthathaka kuMntla weAtlantiki ezisa ubushushu obuvela kwiindawo ezishushu. Uphononongo olutsha olupapashwe kwijenali yeNdalo yoTshintsho lweMozulu lucebisa ukuba Kukwabandakanyeke nabanye oothunywashe. Oku kuquka utshintsho lokujikeleza kolwandle kwiindawo eziphakamileyo kunye neelwandle ezipholileyo ezivelisa amafu asezantsi.

Utshintsho lubonakaliswe ngokucacileyo ukunyanzeliswa kwe-anthropogenic kwimodeli yesimo sezulu kwaye kubaluleke kakhulu ekuqondeni ukuguquka kwexesha elidlulileyo kunye nexesha elizayo lomngxuma wokufudumala.

Uninzi lweemephu zokutshintsha kobushushu bomhlaba jikelele zibonisa iibhanti ezibomvu neziorenji, eziqaqambisa ukufudumala kuninzi lwehlabathi. Kodwa ezinye iindawo azifudumalanga kakhulu kwaye zide zaphola. Enye yezo ndawo yindawo ekuMntla woLwandlekazi lweAtlantiki.

Lo mngxuma wokufudumala ucace ngakumbi kwingxelo yovavanyo yakutsha nje yePhaneli yoRhulumente kuTshintsho lweMozulu njengendawo eluhlaza emephini, ethi ibonisa ukonyuka okuphawulweyo kumndilili weqondo lobushushu bomhlaba ukusuka ku-1901 ukuya ku-2012.

Uphando olutsha

imephu yobushushu behlabathi

Uphando luye lwabonisa ukuba umngxuma wokufudumala unxulumene nokuncipha kwe-Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), inkqubo yemimoya yolwandle e-Atlantiki ehambisa amanzi ashushu ukusuka kwiindawo ezishisayo ukuya eYurophu.

I-AMOC yinxalenye yothungelwano olukhulu lweemodeli zokujikeleza kolwandle. ezihambisa ubushushu kwihlabathi jikelele. Iqhutywa kukupholisa kunye nokutshona kwebrine kwindawo ephakamileyo yoMntla weAtlantiki.

Uphononongo lubonisa ukuba i-AMOC iye yaba buthathaka ukususela kwinkulungwane yama-XNUMX (kwaye mhlawumbi ixesha elide) ngenxa yokungena kwamanzi ahlaziyekileyo kuMntla weAtlantiki ukusuka ekunyibilikeni komkhenkce waseGreenland kunye nokunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu olwandle kunye nemvula kule ndawo.

La manzi ongezelelweyo acocekileyo anciphisa ukuthotywa kwamanzi olwandle apholisayo, nto leyo enciphisa umlinganiselo wamanzi afudumeleyo atsalwa kwimimandla etshisayo, okwenza buthathaka ukuhamba kwamanzi.

Amanzi ashushu kancinci kwiindawo ezishushu anesiphumo sokupholisa kuMntla weAtlantiki, athomalalisa ukufudumala ngokubanzi kolwandle ekunyukeni kwamaqondo obushushu ehlabathi. Ngenxa yoko, umngxuma ofudumeleyo ubangelwa ikakhulu kukucotha kwe-AMOC. Nangona kunjalo, Uphononongo lubonisa ukuba le yenye yezinto ezininzi ezinegalelo ekupholiseni kolwandle nomoya.

Ukufudumala kweCavity kunye nokutshintsha kwemozulu

Ukucacisa ubudlelwane phakathi kokufudumeza kwecango, i-AMOC, kunye nokutshintsha kwemozulu, abaphandi baqhube uthotho lweemvavanyo besebenzisa iimodeli zemozulu. Kwiseti yokuqala yovavanyo, abaphandi banxibelelanisa ukuthuthwa kobushushu bolwandle kunye nokuguquguquka okuqhelekileyo kwamaxesha onyaka, basusa naziphi na iinguqu zexesha elide ukugxila ngokukodwa kwindima yomoya.

Baye bafumanisa ukuba ukungabikho kweenguqu elwandle, imodeli isavelisa umngxuma wokufudumala, nangona kungekhona ngendlela yokupholisa ngokupheleleyo, kodwa kunokuba buthathaka.

Olunye uphando lubonise ukuba utshintsho lwamafu lunempembelelo encinci kodwa ebonakalayo kwimingxuma yokufudumeza. Iilwandle ezibandayo zidala amafu akwinqanaba elisezantsi, nto leyo enciphisa imitha yelanga engenayo kwaye ipholise ngakumbi ulwandle.

Kuluhlu lwesibini lwezilingo, abaphandi bagxininise indima yokuthutha ubushushu be-oceanic kwindawo yokufudumala. Basebenzisa imodeli enye kuphela eyakhiwe yiMax Planck Institute, kodwa baqhuba iseti ye-100 yokulinganisa kwixesha elidlulileyo kunye nenye i-100 yokulinganisa iminyaka eyi-150 kwixesha elizayo. apho amanqanaba e-CO2 emoyeni anyuke nge-1% ngonyaka.

Apha, njengakwizifundo zangaphambili, abaphandi bafumanise ukuba uninzi lomngxuma wokufudumala unxulumene nokujikeleza kolwandle. Ngokukodwa, iziphumo zibonisa ukuba ngelixa iNorth Atlantic ifumana ubushushu obuncinci ukusuka kwiindawo ezitshisayo, iphinda ilahle ubushushu obungakumbi kwiArctic. Ukulinganisa ukusuka kulo mzekelo kubonisa ukuba ukunyuka kobushushu bolwandle okwandayo ukusuka kwiindawo eziphakamileyo zoMntla weAtlantiki ngenxa yenxalenye yokomelezwa kwe-subpolar circulation, ehambisa kwakhona ubushushu ngokuthe tye.

Oku kujikelezwa kwe-subpolar yipateni yokujikeleza ngasekunene kulwandle olukumntla we-Atlantiki. Izizathu zokomelezwa kokujikeleza zinobunzima obuthile.. Isishwankathelo, nangona kunjalo, olu tshintsho lubangelwa yi-greenhouse gases ekhutshwa ngabantu.

Impembelelo yomntu kwi-Cold Blob

indawo ebandayo ekufutshane negreenland

Ezi ensembles ezinkulu zenza kube lula kakhulu ukwahlula impembelelo yokutshintsha kwemozulu ukusuka kumashumi eminyaka endalo edlulileyo ukusuka kwezo zokunyanzeliswa kwemozulu ezibangelwa yimpembelelo yomntu. Inyaniso, Kwi-100 yokugqibela yokulinganisa ukufudumeza, uphando lufumene ukuba zonke zinemingxuma yokufudumeza.

Yintoni yonke imifuziselo efana ngayo kukuba ngokufudumeza kwehlabathi kukho ukwanda kokuthunyelwa kobushushu kwiindawo eziphezulu. Olu lwando luchaza ubukhulu becala ukubunjwa kwemingxuma yokufudumeza kwaye ke ngoko kubangelwe ziigesi ezikhutshwa ngabantu.

Oku kuthetha ukuba ngelixa umngxuma ofudumeleyo unokunxulunyaniswa nokutshintsha kwemozulu okubangelwa ngabantu, kunye ubuthathaka be-AMOC kunokudlala indima ebalulekileyo kubukho bayo. Kwakhona kuthetha ukuba ukusetyenziswa kobushushu bomngxuma ukunyusa amandla e-AMOC, njengoko kuye kwenzeka kwezinye izifundo, kufuneka kwenziwe ngokuqaphela, kuba iinkqubo ngaphandle kwe-AMOC zibandakanyeka kwaye zenza ubudlelwane bube nzima.

Ndiyathemba ukuba ngolu lwazi unokufunda ngakumbi malunga neCold Blob kunye neempawu zayo.


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