Imeko ye "Inkwenkwe nentombazana" zijikeleza kwaye zisebenza ngokwemo yezulu. I-World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) iye yalumkisa ukuba iimeko ze "La Niña" ezingathathi hlangothi okanye ezibuthathaka kulindeleke kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2017. Nangona kunokwenzeka ukuba imeko ingatshintsha ukusuka ngoMeyi.
Ukuze wazi isenzo sale meko, i-WMO isekwe kuphononongo kunye nokudalwa kweemodeli ezixela kwangaphambili ezi zenzo. Emva kokuzihlalutya, ziye zafikelela kwisigqibo sokuba kungenzeka ukuba imeko yezendalo ayithathi cala zigcinwa nkqu nakwizinto ezenzekayo ze "La Niña" ngama-70-85%.
Into emangazayo ye "La Niña"
Ukulungelelanisa olu lwazi, sikhumbula ngokufutshane ukuba yintoni le "La Niña". Le nto ikhula xa inqanaba elifanelekileyo le-Oscillation eseMazantsi lifikelela kumanqanaba abalulekileyo kwaye lihlala iinyanga ezininzi.
Xa "uLa Niña" ekhona, Uxinzelelo lolwandle luyancipha kwingingqi ye-Oceania, kwaye ibangela ukwanda kwayo kwi-tropical ne-tropical Pacific kunxweme lo Mzantsi Melika nakuMbindi Merika; oko kukhokelela ekwandeni koxinzelelo olukhoyo phakathi kwamacala omabini e-Pacific. Umoya wezorhwebo uya usiba namandla, ubangela ukuba amanzi anzulu apholileyo asecaleni kwePasifiki aqhubeke nomphezulu.
Le mimoya inamandla ngokungaqhelekanga inamandla amakhulu okurhuqa kumphezulu wolwandle, inyusa umahluko kwinqanaba lolwandle phakathi kwamacala omabini e-Pacific equator. Ngale nto, inqanaba lolwandle liyancipha kunxweme lwaseColombia, e-Ecuador, ePeru nasemantla eChile kwaye lonyuka e-Oceania. Njengomphumo wokubonakala kwamanzi abandayo ecaleni kweIkhweyitha, amaqondo obushushu olwandle ancipha ngaphantsi kwexabiso lemozulu eliqhelekileyo.
Obu bobona bungqina buchanekileyo bobukho beLa Niña. Nangona kunjalo, ezona mpazamo zininzi zishushu zincinci kunezo zarekhodwa ngexesha lika-El Niño. Ngexesha leziganeko zeLa Niña, amanzi ashushu kwiPasifiki yeikhweyitha agxile kwingingqi ecaleni kwe-Oceania kwaye ungaphezulu kwalo mmandla apho kuphuphuma khona amafu kunye nemvula enkulu.
Amaqondo obushushu ePacific
Ngexesha lesiqingatha sesibini sika-2016, amaqondo obushushu oLwandlekazi lwePasifiki ayesemngceleni womda owahlula imeko ebandayo nengathathi cala. Ngoku, ekuqaleni kuka-2017, la maqondo obushushu kunye namanye amasimi asemoyeni abuyele ngokucacileyo kumanqanaba angathathi hlangothi, ke isiphumo se "La Niña" asenzeki. Ezi zikhombisi zenza ukuba oonobumba bezulu bacinge ukuba ezi meko iya kuhlala izinzile kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2017.
Umahluko ekusebenzeni kumaqondo obushushu ehlabathi kukuba "u-El Niño" ubenza bavuke kwaye i "La Niña" ibenza bawe. Ukongeza, "iLa Niña" inyusa ukuphindaphindeka kweenkanyamba kuLwandlekazi lweAtlantic.
Kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2017
Kuba ezi zinto azisoloko zizinzile, iimodeli zenziwa ukuba projekthi ziguquke ezi zinto zixhomekeke kuzo. Olu qikelelo lwenziwe ziimodeli zeWMO emva koMeyi 2017, zibandakanya uluhlu olubanzi lwezinto ezinokwenzeka. Iimeko ezibandayo kunokwenzeka ukuba zenzeke, zihambelana nezo zinikezelwa ngu "La Niña" kodwa kunye neemeko ezingathathi cala kude kube kukwakheka kwesiqendu se "El Niño".
Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka ka-2017, kunokwenzeka ukuba iimeko zeLa Niña ziya kuqhubeka ” kwithuba lama-50%, ibonisa umbutho, olumkisa, nangona kunjalo, ukuba kungenzeka ukuba isiqephu se "El Niño" senziwe kwikota yesithathu okanye yesine ka-2017 "sibalulekile", simi malunga ne-35 okanye i-40%.
Imijikelezo ye- “El Niño” ihlala isenzeka rhoqo kwiminyaka esi-7. Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yesenzo sokutshintsha kwemozulu, le mijikelo yenzeka ngamandla ngakumbi kwaye rhoqo.