Kubva Chikumi 1, 2017, AEMET yanga ichimhanyisa iyo Harmonie-Arome nharaunda yenhamba yemhando modhi, inozoramba ichitsiva iyo HIRLAM modhi. Nechikonzero ichi, iyi modhi nyowani yakaburitswa pane yekunze webhusaiti, uye kubva ipapo zvichienda mberi, webhusaiti yeAEMET yakapedzisa kuburitsa kweDeterministic Numerical Model yeEuropean Center yeMedium-Term Forecasting (CEPPM). Dunhu reAtlantic, iro rinofukidzawo mazhinji eEurope uye kuchamhembe nekumaodzanyemba hemispheres seD+0. Izvi zvigadzirwa zvitsva zvinoita kuti zvigoneke zvakare chiono chekuona chakave chisisashande nekubatanidzwa kwe harmonie model uye kudziviswa kweHIRLAM ONR.
Muchikamu chino tichakuudza kuti Harmonie modhi inosanganisirei, ndeyei uye kuti ndezvipi zvakanakira.
Harmony modhi
Kubuda kwezvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana kunoratidzwa maawa matanhatu ega ega, kubva pa6 kusvika kumaawa 12 maererano nemuenzaniso chiteshi, ichimhanya kaviri pazuva pa132 uye 00 UTC (awa imwe isingasviki nguva yepeninsular munguva yechando uye maawa maviri mashoma muzhizha) .
Mavara anoratidzwa ndeaya anotevera:
Nzvimbo:
- Kunaya kwemvura mumaawa matanhatu ekutanga
- Dzvinyiriro panguva yezita (inoratidzwa nekusarudzika)
- Tembiricha panguva yakatarwa
- Cloudiness panguva yezita
- Mhepo nenguva yezita
Kune isobaric pamusoro pe850 hPa (yakaenzana neinosvika 1,5 km kureba paavhareji):
- Tembiricha uye Potential muchimiro chimwe chete
- Kune isobaric pamusoro pe500 hPa (anenge 5,5 km):
- Tembiricha uye Potential muchimiro chimwe chete
- Kune isobaric pamusoro pe300 hPa (anenge 9 km):
- Mhepo uye zvinogona mumufananidzo wakafanana
Nezve matunhu ehemispheric, kuchamhembe kwehemisphere uye kumaodzanyemba kwehemisphere, kubva pa12 kusvika kumaawa 132 enguva yezita remuenzaniso, kuratidza mabviro ega ega maawa gumi nemaviri, kwe12 uye 00 UTC, zvinotevera zvinosiyana zvinopfuudzwa:
- kudzvinyirirwa kwepamusoro
- Isobaric pamusoro pekugona kwe500 hPa
Zvakanakira iyo itsva Harmonie modhi
Iyo Harmonie-arome modhi isiri-hydrostatic mesoscale modhi inobvumira kutevedzera kwe convection. Kana iri yeHIRLAM limited area modhi, yave ichishanda muINM-AEMET kwemakore makumi maviri nemashanu, yakaita nhanho huru, kwete chete nokuda kwekugadzirisa kwayo kwepamusoro, asi kunyanya nokuda kwekufananidzira kwe convection nemigumisiro yaro yakabatanidzwa (kunaya, mhepo ine simba, chimvuramabwe, kubuda kwemagetsi). Asi iyo haisiriyo yega mukana weHarmonie-arome, iri zvakare yakanakisa modhi yekufanotaura kwekushisa-inoshanduka pachiyero chenzvimbo- uye kufanotaura kwemhute nemakore akaderera, uye zvimwe zviitiko zvinoenderana netopography, zvinowanikwa mu Harmonie modhi yakagadziridzwa uye inowirirana neHIRLAM neCEPPM modhi uye saka inokodzera zvirinani iwo chaiwo mamodheru.
download kufanotaura
Iyo webhu inosanganisirawo mafambiro ekuyerera kubva kuiyo HARMONIE-AROME modhi, kuwedzera kune iyo iripo kubva munaChikumi 20, zvinoti: kudzvanywa, tembiricha, mhepo, kuputika kukuru, kunaya uye kuvharwa kwegore. Chigadzirwa chekuburitsa ndeye post-processing zvichibva pane zviri mukati me "graupel" (chimvuramabwe chechando kana chimvuramabwe chidiki) mune convective gore, yakagadziridzwa kumhepo yekubuda kweSpain. Kukosha kwechiyero ndeye rays / km2, yakabatanidzwa muawa imwe chete kana mumaawa matatu. Kureva kuti, inhamba yekurova kwemheni ingangorova mukati menguva iyoyo mukati menzvimbo yeskweya kilometa.
Musi waChikunguru 6, 2017, AEMET yakaita kuratidzwa kweHarmonie-arome itsva kuAEMET, umo midziyo yayo yakakosha uye kuvandudzwa kwakatoitwa kwakatsanangurwa mune zvigadzirwa zvinogona kushandiswa kufanotaura mamiriro ekunze asina kunaka uye nendege.
Iyi modhi ine yakachinjika resolution ye2,5 km. Iyo ndeyechizvarwa chitsva cheasiri-hydrostatic modhi anogadzirisa zvakajeka kune yakadzika convection. Pamusoro pezvo, inomiririra kuvandudzwa kwakakosha mukufanotaura kwenzvimbo, kunyanya maererano nemhando dzinotevera: kunaya, kunaya kwemvura, mhepo, tembiricha uye mhute. Kuvandudzwa kwemuenzaniso wakaoma wakadaro unogona kuwanikwa chete kuburikidza nekubatana kwenyika dzakawanda.
Izvo zvikumbiro zvekufungidzira zvakagadzirwa muAEMET zvichibva pane iyi modhi zvinotsanangurwa zvakare: Harmonie-arome munda unoshandiswa muAEMET mashandiro, munda wekufarira kune convective mamiriro, inova iyo simba reiyo isiri-hydrostatic modhi, yemhepo inonzwika modhi yeHarmonie-arome kufanotaura, Nyowani. Minda uye mamwe maapplication anowanikwa pa Webhusaiti yeAEMET yekunze yevashandisi vekunze uye budiriro yeramangwana.
Uye zvakare, kuenzanisa pakati peEurocentre neHarmonie-arome modhi kunoratidzwa, uye kuti vanofanotaura vanogona sei kushandisa iyo itsva Harmonie-arome minda mu. kushanda, semheni, chimvuramabwe, kana kupenya.
Chekupedzisira, basa reAEMET ririkuenderera mberi rinoratidzwa kuti riwane 2,5 km Probabilistic Prediction Model (AEMET-SREPS), iyo ichavepo munguva pfupi pawebhusaiti yeAEMET uye inozadzisa fungidziro yekufungidzira ine fungidziro yekufungidzira. Mushure mezvo, chirongwa cheHarmonie-arome chekushandisa chakaunzwa kuAEMET, kusanganisira akawanda anoteedzana matanho ekuteerera.
Opinions
Javier Calvo, mukuru wenzvimbo yekuenzanisira yesangano, akatsanangura kuti kuvandudzwa kukuru kunofanira kuitwa, kunyatsofanotaura kunaya kwemvura uye "kunyanya kukosha, kunaka kwezvipenyu zvinounganidza, ingave mvura yechando kana chimvuramabwe" uye kusimba kwavo " , kureva, kana vane simba "Izvi imhaka yekuti modhi iyi 'isina-hydrostatic', kureva kuti, inotora zvirinani kufamba kwakamira", akadaro. «Hakusi chete kusimba kwakafanotaurwa kwakanyatsojeka, zvakare kwakanyatso kurongeka kwenzvimbo.«, ndiko kuti, nzvimbo yechiitiko, yakatsanangura mutungamiri wekuenzanisira.
Pakati pemasevhisi akatangwa semhedzisiro yemuenzaniso "MeteoRuta", iyo yave kuwanikwa pawebhusaiti yeAEMET, uko vashandisi vekunze vanogona kubvunza mamiriro ekunze munzira, maererano nemunhu anotarisira tekinoroji uye nzvimbo yekushandisa.
Jesús Montero, Musoro weKugadzirwa kuAEMET, akataura nezvechikamu chekushandisa chemuenzaniso, achitsanangura kuti modhi yakaitwa kuti iwanikwe kune vashandisi pawebhu. Sezvo nyanzvi dzinosimbirira, "Harmonie-Arome" iwo muenzaniso “wakaoma zvekuti haugone kugadzirwa nenyika imwe chete«, saka modhi yacho yakagadzirwa nevanyanzvi kubva kuhuwandu hwe26 mamiriro ekunze munyika dzakasiyana muEurope neNorth Africa.
Ndinovimba kuti neruzivo urwu unogona kudzidza zvakawanda nezve tekinoroji yeHarmonie modhi yekufembera kwemamiriro ekunze.