Tiri kurarama munguva umo ruzivo rwakawanda runoyerera rwakatipoteredza zvokuti hatikwanisi kubata pfungwa dzakakosha uye dzinokosha dzemashoko acho. Kunyanya izvo zvakanyanya kuoma, semasayendisiti. Mashoko akawandisa dzimwe nguva anogona kukonzera nyonganiso. Inotaura nezve a kunotevera glaci muSpain uye izvo zvinovhiringa vagari vemo.
Muchinyorwa chino tichakuudza zvese zvaunoda kuziva nezve inotevera glaciation muSpain uye zvazvinobata.
Inotevera glaciation muSpain
Masayendisiti ane chokwadi chekuti zvinhu zviviri izvi hazvipokane, nekuti kiyi ndiyo chiyero chenguva. Isu vanhu tinovhiringidzika patinofunga kubva pamakumi emakore kusvika kumakumi ezviuru zvemakore. Ndiyo pfungwa yacho.
Nguva yeNyika yedu ndeye 5 bhiriyoni makore. Hominids yakavapo pamusoro penyika kwemakore mamiriyoni mashanu. Uye isu takangovepo munhoroondo (kunyora, budiriro) kwezviuru zvishanu zvemakore. Vose "vashanu", vari pedyo zvikuru, asi pazvikero zvenguva zvakasiyana.
Muchidimbu, nguva yatakagara paNyika haina kukosha kana ichienzaniswa nezera repasi. Mukati memabhiriyoni amakore ekuvapo, mamiriro okunze ePasi akachinja zvikuru.
Ice Age
Munhoroondo yazvino yeNyika, mamiriro ekunze akachinja zvakanyanya munguva dzinonzi ice age, panguva iyo Nyika yakanga yakafukidzwa neaizi. Munguva idzi dzechando, tine nguva dzechando. Mufananidzo wekutanga unotiratidza kushanduka kwekushisa muAntarctica mukati memakore 1 apfuura (mutsara mutsvuku). Takaona chimiro chesowe: kukurumidza kukwira uye kunonoka kudzika.
Fungidzira tiri munguva yechando. Tembiricha yakadzikira zvakanyanya, pasi rakazara neaizi uye kamwe kamwe tembiricha inokwira nekukurumidza. Tiri kupinda munguva yechando.
Saka mushure mezviuru zvemakore (kutenderera kunowanzo kutenderedza 100.000 makore), tave munguva yechando zvakare. Uye loop inodzokorora. Pazviyero izvi zvenguva, zvakawanda zvekusiyana kwemamiriro ekunze edu nekuda kwekuchinja kunonoka kwekufamba kwemapuraneti akapoteredza zuva, pfungwa yakagadzirwa naMilankovitch muhafu yekutanga yezana remakore rechiXNUMX.
Nhasi tiri munguva ye interglacial. Tine nyika isati yazadzwa neaizi kwezviuru zvemakore. Vesainzi vanodana nguva iyi kuti Holocene. Mariri inoratidzika sekurima, yekutanga budiriro huru uye nhoroondo yedu kusvika nhasi. Zvese zvinoita sezvinoratidza kuti masimba epasi achaenderera mberi uye avhareji tembiricha yepasi ichadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma kuenda kuzera rinotevera rechando. Asi yeuka kuti kutenderera uku kunotora makore angangoita 100.000. Nemamwe mashoko, hakuzovi nezera remakore echando, kana kuti mireniyumu inotevera. Zvichaitika pachikero chenguva chinopfuura kunzwisisa kwedu, kujairana nehurefu hwehupenyu hwevanhu.
Asi munhoroondo ichangopfuura yemamiriro ekunze ePasi, chimwe chinhu chinoshamisa chakaitika. Masayendisiti ave achitaura kwemakumi emakore kuti tiri kuona kudziya kusina kujairika uye kusiri kwemusikirwo. Takawana chikonzero: tiri kubudisa greenhouse magasi. Ndataura izvozvo, tiri kuita chiyedzo chikuru panyika yedu.
Hatizivi chaizvo zvichaitika kumamiriro ekunze ePasi mumakumi emakore anotevera, nekuti zvinoenderana nekugona kwedu (kuburitsa mamwe kana kushoma magasi egreenhouse). Isu takatonyura mukudziya kwepasi rose, uye kutenderera kwemazaya echando nemazaya echando kuchaenderera mberi, kunyangwe pachiyero chisingaenzaniswi chenguva chechiitiko chega chega.
Kunonoka kweinotevera glaciation muSpain
Zvinoenderana nefungidziro, nguva inotevera yechando, iyo inoratidza kupera kwekudziya kwatinako, inofanira kutanga mumakore 1500. Nekudaro, huwandu hwemagasi egreenhouse anoungana mumhepo yePasi anogona kukanganisa maitiro akajairwa uye kunonotsa nguva yechando inotevera nemakumi ezviuru zvemakore.
Idzi ndidzo mhedziso dzeongororo yakaitwa neYunivhesiti yeFlorida yakashandisa zvimiro zvemuchadenga kuverenga huwandu hwekupisa kwezuva kwakasvika kumhepo yePasi panguva yechando nepakati pechando. Maererano nemhando idzi, ikozvino interglacial nguva ichapera mumakore 1.500 bhiriyoni. Zvakadaro, kuwanda kwemagasi egreenhouse mumhepo kunogona kukanganisa kutonhora kwePasi nekuti anoteya kupisa kunoratidzwa kubva pamusoro penyika.
Kunyange zvazvo tarisiro yemakore akawanda ekudziya isati yasvika nguva yechando iri kuedza, chokwadi ndechokuti matambudziko akabatana anogona kuva nemigumisiro yakakomba zvikuru. “Mazaya echando akaita seWest Antarctica akanganiswa nekudziya kwepasi,” anonyevera kudaro Jim Tunnel. Pavanozopedzisira vaparadzana vova chikamu chehuwandu hwegungwa, kukanganisa kwegungwa kuchava kukuru.
Mamwe maonero
Zvinoshamisa kuti kudziya kwepasi kunogona kukonzera kudonha kukuru kwe5 kusvika 10 madhigirii celsius muEurope. Nguva itsva yakatovhurwa nekuda kwekondinendi yekare. Izvi zvingaita sezvisinganzwisisike, asi masayendisiti anoti zvinogona kuitika kana shanduko yemamiriro ekunze ikakonzera kudonha muAtlantic current system, inozivikanwa seAtlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Zviri kutoitika. Zvakare, AMOC yave kusvika pachikumbaridzo chayo chakakosha. Vatsvagiri vakapa yambiro yechimbichimbi nekuti magadzirirwo emakungwa akakosha pakugadzikana kwemamiriro ekunze epasi rose.
Chidzidzo chitsva chakaburitswa muNature Climate Change uye inotsigirwa neEU-inotsigirwa nemari yeTiPES chirongwa, icho chine chinangwa chekutarisa zvirinani kuvepo kwezvinhu zvinobuda mumamiriro ekunze, inosimbisa maitiro eiyo Atlantic system, inova A yeGulf Stream, zvaiita sezvinoratidza "zviratidzo zvakajeka zvekusagadzikana uye zvinogona kudonha". Kana izvi zvikaitika, masayendisiti anofanotaura kuti ichave ne "yakakosha kutonhora mamiriro ekunze eEurope."
Tsvakurudzo yakatungamirirwa naNiklas Boers wePotsdam Institute for Climate Change (PIK), nhengo yeTiPES (Tipping Points in the Earth System) consortium. Chidzidzo chacho chakawanikwa kuburikidza nekuongorora kwakadzama kwekutarisa kwemazuva ano uye zviratidzo zvekutanga zvekunyevera, senge salinity mapatani mumvura yegungwa, kuti maAMOC anogona kunge akarasikirwa nekugadzikana kwawo muzana ramakore rapfuura.
Ndinovimba kuti neruzivo urwu unogona kudzidza zvakawanda nezve inotevera glaciation muSpain uye izvo zvinokonzeresa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze.