A cikin shekarun da suka gabata, tarihin duniyarmu ya sami babban canje-canje. Wasu sun kasance masu sauƙin kai da matsakaici, wasu kuma sun kasance masu zafin rai da faɗa. Wasu daga cikinsu suna da alaƙa da ƙarancin nau'ikan da yawa. Amma me yasa akwai lokutan da yawancin jinsuna suka mutu? Daniel Rothman, farfesa a fannin ilimin kasa a sashen nazarin yanayi da kimiyyar sararin samaniya a MIT, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology, yayi amfani da lissafi wajen amsa wannan tambayar.
Dangane da tsinkaya, a shekara ta 2100 tekuna za su adana jimillar gigatons 310 na carbon dioxide. Gigaton daya yayi daidai da kilogram 1.000.000.000.000 (tiriliyan daya). Ya isa ya faɗar da yiwuwar halaka ta jama'a idan ba a yi wani abu don dakatar da shi ba. Wannan shine sakamakon da Rothman ya cimma idan aka yi la’akari da rikice-rikicen carbon a cikin shekaru miliyan 542 da suka gabata.
Yin amfani da lissafi don hango abin da zai faru a nan gaba
En nazarin shekaru miliyan 542 da suka gabata, ana iya kiyayewa 5 manyan halaye masu yawa ya faru. Abu daya da duka suke da shi shine babban rikicewar carbon. Sun shafi teku da sararin samaniya. Bugu da kari, kamar yadda aka nuna, wadannan rikice-rikicen sun dau miliyoyin shekaru, suna haifar da bacewar yawancin jinsuna. Dangane da nau'in halittun ruwa, har zuwa kashi 75% daga cikinsu.
Babban malami masanin ilimin geophysics ya gabatarwa mujallar Science cigaban, tsarin lissafi wanda yayi nasarar gano bakin masifa. Idan waɗannan ƙofofin sun wuce, damar hallaka ta da yawa tana da girma ƙwarai.
Nuna tunani a zamaninmu
Don isa ga waɗannan ƙarshe, an yi nazari kan al'amuran 31 daga shekaru miliyan 542 na ƙarshe. Wereimar mahimmancin rikicewar zagayowar carbon da girmanta suna da alaƙa da girman lokacin aikin da alkalinity na tekun da canjin yanayi ke daidaitawa. Wannan shine iyaka don hana acidification na waɗannan biyun.
Lokacin da ɗayan ɗayan waɗannan ƙofofin biyu suka wuce, an lura cewa yawancin ɓarnar nau'ikan suna bi.. Don canje-canje a cikin zagayen carbon wanda ke faruwa cikin lokaci mai tsawo, ƙarewa na faruwa idan waɗannan canje-canje suna faruwa da sauri fiye da iyawar kafofin watsa labaru don daidaitawa. Wani abu da ke nuna abin da ke faruwa a zamaninmu. Inda ƙimar carbon dioxide ke tashi sama, kuma yanayin yana canzawa cikin saurin sauri, yana magana akan ma'auni.
Sabanin haka, don damuwa da ke faruwa a kan ɗan gajeren lokacin, ƙimar canjin sake zagayowar carbon ba ta da mahimmanci. A wannan lokacin, abin da ya dace shine girma ko girman canjin, wanda ke ƙayyade yiwuwar.
Zuwan a 2100
Rothman ya ce zai ɗauki kimanin shekaru 10.000 kafin wannan lamarin ya inganta sosai. Amma cewa mai yiwuwa ne da zarar yanayin ya zo, duniya ta shiga yankin da ba a sani ba. Gaskiya wannan matsala ce. "Ba na son in ce abin ya faru washegari," in ji shi a wata sanarwa. «Ina faɗin hakan, idan ba a sarrafa shi ba, sake zagayowar carbon zai koma cikin daula wacce ba za ta ƙara zama karko ba da kuma cewa zai yi aiki ta hanyar da zai yi wuyar annabta. A zamanin da ya gabata, irin wannan halayyar tana da alaƙa da ƙarancin ɗimbin ɗabi'a. '
Mai binciken ya kasance yana aiki a kan marigayi marigayi Permian. Mafi tsananin yanayi a tarihin Duniya tare da fiye da kashi 95% na nau'ikan halittu, ya ga tasirin ƙwayar carbon yana da hannu sosai. Tun daga wannan lokacin, tattaunawa da yawa da abokai da mutanen da ke kusa da shi sun ƙarfafa shi yin wannan bincike. Daga nan, kamar yadda shi da kansa yake faɗi "Na zauna wata rana rani kuma nayi ƙoƙari inyi tunanin yadda mutum zaiyi nazarin wannan a tsare." Abin da ya faru miliyoyin shekaru da suka gabata, yana amfani da ma'aunin babban lokaci, a cikin abin da a yau alama kawai ya mamaye toan ƙarni.
Duniyarmu tana da ma'auni. Shin yanayin zafi, yanayi, gurbatawa, matakan carbon, da dai sauransu. Daidaitawa, wanda ke canzawa da sauri fiye da da alama da alama an buge shi. Shin zan iya tsayawa? Kuma idan ba haka ba, ta yaya zamu iya bayanin cewa har yanzu bamu tsayar da shi ba kuma ga shi ya iso?