The effects of climate change can alter global average temperatures. The consequences and repercussions of abnormal temperature fluctuations can be foreseen to some extent.
Know the temperature that will be in the year 2017 it can be of vital importance for future actions on the planet's climate. Can we know what temperatures await us this year?
Temperature records
The temperature records for 2016 are not yet complete. However, trends can be observed to be able to predict what our year may be like. As we analyze the temperature trends for 2016, we can ensure, which will become the warmest year since humans have recorded temperatures. Until recently, 2014 was considered the hottest year in history. The year 2015 remained somewhat more stable, but from what can be seen in the 2016 temperature measurements, it will be the hottest year known to date.
Global temperature measurements began to be carried out with relative precision hace 135 años and no one was going to expect that the trend of global temperatures would follow a straight path towards the increase and not fluctuations as it has always been.
Thousands of scientists around the world are analyzing the accumulated data and using various models to be able to make forecasts on the evolution and trends of temperatures in addition to other indicators of climate change.
For now, according to the data available, it can be expected that 2017 will be another very warm year worldwide, although it is unlikely May it once again become the year that achieves the world record for highest temperatures due to the additional effect caused by the phenomenon of El Niño since results are expected on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by the countries that have ratified the Paris Agreement.
Source: Aemet
The global average temperature for 2017 is expected to is between 0,63 ° C and 0,87 ° C above the average for the reference climate period (1961-1990), with a central estimate of 0,75 ° C, scientists say.
The increase in global average temperatures has accelerated since the beginning of the XNUMXst century and it is thanks to the computers of Met Office with which it is possible to make more and more reliable forecasts and with greater precision.
The year 2017 is also expected to be very hot as in recent years, but thanks to the absence of the effects on temperatures of the phenomenon of El Niño, less pronounced increases are expected. On previous occasions, the forecasts generated by the Met Office computers were very close to the actual temperatures that occurred during the year. The Met Office predictions estimated a temperature rise of between 0,72 ° C and 0,96 ° C and a central estimate of 0,84 ° C (relative to the 961-1990 average). In the absence of data from last December, it is estimated that the global average temperature increased by 0,86 ° C last year, that is, only 0,02 ° C different from the central estimate of the Met Office).
Reasons why global temperature rises
Global temperatures are rising too fast and must be slowed down somehow. But do we know why temperatures are increasing?
Well, one of the reasons why 2016 was the warmest in history is due toThe effects of the phenomenon of El Niño which contributed to the increase in temperatures by approximately 0,2 ° C.
The rest of global warming is due the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, caused by emissions from industry and transportation. Although the phenomenon of El Niño it will not act and influence global temperatures in 2017, this year will also be one of the warmest in recent Earth history.
For this first quarter of 2017, the Aemet indicates in a generic way that “there is a greater probability that the temperature reaches values higher than normal throughout Spain ”. Regarding rains and snowfalls, the Aemet indicates that “there is a greater probability that rainfall is higher than normal in the eastern half of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands; in the rest of Spain there are no significant differences with respect to the 1981-2000 climatic average ”.