It is increasingly likely that the Paris Agreement will not be enough to stop global warming. It is intended to avoid a scenario of droughts, hunger and natural disasters, but according to a study published in 'Nature Climate Change' carried out by researchers from the University of Washington, there is a 90 percent chance that by the end of the century the average temperature of planet Earth will have increased by between 2 and 5 degrees Celsius.
This exceeds the limit of two degrees of rise established by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, we could be talking about a future that we know absolutely nothing about, which is very worrying.
Limiting the temperature rise to two degrees is very optimistic. "Damage from meteorology, droughts, extreme temperatures and rising sea levels will be much more severe," explained Dargan Frierson, co-author of the study. »Our results show that it is necessary to make a drastic change of course if the objectives of only increasing the temperature by 1,5 degrees are to be achieved.».
In order to make these predictions, the researchers have developed computer simulations and made observations of the planet's climate, for example taking into account the ability of the oceans to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2). Further, used data accumulated over 50 years to create scenarios based on gross domestic product (GDP), a parameter that calculates the amount of CO2 emitted for every dollar that is produced in economic activity.
Thus, they tried to predict what would happen if nothing was done to stop global warming, or if countries actually made efforts to stop burning fossil fuels.
Adrian Raftery, first author of the study, said that the goals of the Paris Agreement are realistic, but it does not appear that they will be enough. The population at the end of the century will be or will exceed 10 million people, so that, although the growth is not going to be noticeable as most of it will occur in Africa, Unless countries make real efforts to reduce emissions, the climate will be very different from what it is today.
You can read the study here!.