The hurricane season in the Atlantic will be more active according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, better known as NOAA. In total, they are expected to form between 12 and 17 storms, of which between 5 and 8 would become cyclones, and of those, 2 to 4 could become hurricanes of a higher category.
Mid-season experts have updated their forecasts, and indicated that the chances of it being a normal season or more active than normal are very high: 70%.
In its first forecast, NOAA had estimated that between 10 and 16 storms could form, and 4 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 4 would be especially destructive. Thus, the new figures are higher than those of other seasons, during which 12 storms and 6 hurricanes were recorded, of which about 3 are usually of a higher category.
In addition, it is estimated that this hurricane season, which ends on November 30, be the most active since 2012. But why is there so much chance of more storms and hurricanes than normal?
There are several factors that have been taken into account for their forecasts: the El Niño phenomenon, which is already weakening, trade winds that begin to be weaker over the central tropical Atlantic, in addition to the monsoon over West Africa.
Still, the head of the NOAA meteorological team, Gerry Bell, said that ocean temperature patterns are not very favorable for the season to be extremely activeTherefore, the La Niña phenomenon, which could occur in the coming months, will not have much impact in the current hurricane season.
At the moment, there have been five named storms, and two hurricanes: Alex and Earl, which caused the death of at least 49 people in Mexico.
You can read the NOAA report here (In English).