The phenomenon of "La Niña" will maintain neutral situations at the beginning of 2017

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The phenomenon of "The boy and the girl" they are cyclical and act according to weather conditions. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that neutral or very weak “La Niña” conditions are expected during the first half of 2017. Although it is likely that the situation may change from May.

In order to know the action of these phenomena, the WMO is based on the study and creation of models that predict these actions. After analyzing them, they have come to the conclusion that the probability that neutral environmental conditions are maintained even with the phenomenon of "La Niña" is 70-85%.

The phenomenon of "La Niña"

In order to contextualize this information, we briefly recall what the “La Niña” phenomenon is. This phenomenon develops when the positive phase of the Southern Oscillation reaches significant levels and lasts for several months.

When "La Niña" is present, sea ​​level pressure decreases in the Oceania region, and causes an increase of it in the tropical and subtropical Pacific along the coasts of South America and Central America; which leads to an increase in the pressure difference between both ends of the equatorial Pacific. The trade winds intensify, causing the relatively cooler deep waters along the equatorial Pacific to come to the surface.

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These abnormally intense winds exert a greater drag effect on the ocean surface, increasing the difference in sea level between both ends of the equatorial Pacific. With this, the sea level decreases on the coasts of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and northern Chile and increases in Oceania. As a result of the appearance of relatively cold waters along the Equator, the sea surface temperature decreases below the mean climatological value.

This constitutes the most direct evidence of the presence of the La Niña phenomenon. However, the maximum negative thermal anomalies are smaller than those recorded during El Niño. During La Niña events, the hot waters in the equatorial Pacific are concentrated in the region next to Oceania and it is over this region where the cloudiness and the most intense precipitation develop.

Temperatures in the Pacific

During the second half of 2016, the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean were at the limit of the threshold that separates cold and neutral conditions. Now, at the beginning of 2017, these temperatures and some atmospheric fields have clearly returned to neutral levels, so the “La Niña” effect is not occurring. These indicators are making meteorologists think that these conditions will remain stable during the first half of 2017.

The difference in the action on global temperatures is that “El Niño” makes them rise and “La Niña” makes them fall. In addition, “La Niña” increases the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.

In the second half of 2017

Impacts of the Niña and Niño phenomena

Because these phenomena are not always so stable, models are made that project the variables on which these phenomena depend. These projections made by WMO models for after May 2017, include a wide range of possibilities. Cold conditions are likely to occur, consistent with those offered by “La Niña” but also neutral conditions until the next formation of an “El Niño” episode.

For the second half of 2017, it is most likely that the La Niña conditions will continue ” in a 50% chance, indicates the organization, which warns, however, that the probability of an “El Niño” episode forming during the third or fourth quarter of 2017 “is significant”, standing at around 35 or 40%.

The “El Niño” cycles are usually every 7 years. However, due to the action of climate change, these cycles are occurring more intensely and more frequently.


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