Although there is a large part of the world population that is not yet aware of climate change and its negative effects and others, like President Donald Trump, does not even believe in it, curbing global warming is the greatest challenge facing the human species in the XNUMXst century.
To try to avoid this catastrophe that would unleash total instability across the planet, the Paris Agreement came into force. Its objective is paramount and necessary for the world: limit the increase in average temperatures of planet Earth by 2 ° C compared to pre-industrial levels and continue with efforts to limit this increase in and stabilize it at 1,5 ° C. New research indicates that these goals are increasingly difficult to achieve. What can we do?
Curbing rising temperatures is increasingly difficult
A statistical study has been carried out in different American universities (note the irony, since their president does not believe in climate change) that reveals that the probability that the planet has of reaching an increase of 2 ° C and staying that way is only 5%. We already throw our hands at our heads when we see that the probability of reaching stability at 1,5 ° C is only 1%.
This research has been published in the journal Nature Climate Change. Among the results of the study is that it is most likely that during the next century Earth's temperature rises between 2 ° C and 4,9 ° C. In general, the objectives set out in the Paris Agreement are ambitious and also realistic. However, even if in the optimal case that it were fulfilled correctly, it would not be enough to keep global warming below 1,5 ° C.
To find out how temperatures would increase as a function of greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2100, three variables have been taken into account: the total world population, the gross domestic product per capita and the amount of carbon emissions emitted by each economic activity.
Once the three variables have been introduced in models that predict temperatures as a function of global emissions, it is concluded that the average temperature of the planet by the end of the century will have risen by 3,2 ° C. They warn that the speed with which carbon dioxide emissions are reduced depending on each economic activity will be crucial to curb the heat of the future.
Another conclusion of the study is that if global average temperatures rise above 1,5 ° C, the severe environmental catastrophes that many countries would suffer will be much more serious than the current ones.