Compliance with the Paris Agreement will not prevent the El Niño phenomenon

phenomenon of the child

The main objective of the Paris Agreement is to avoid increasing global average temperatures by 1,5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Although this objective could be achieved and stabilized at that level, climate change is causing an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme cases of the El Niño phenomenon that will continue like this for a century.

Even if the objectives of the Paris Agreement were achieved, this would not serve to stabilize El Niño. These studies have been conducted by research centers in Australia and China. Do you want to know more about the effect of El Niño?

Increase in the El Niño phenomenon

The continuing warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific region caused by global warming and greenhouse gas emissions, make the El Niño phenomenon increase in frequency and intensity. Previously, El Niño had cycles of 7 years, since it is a natural meteorological event, alternated with the La Niña phenomenon. There is evidence that the El Niño phenomenon has been like this for a long time. However, climate change is causing it to happen at a faster pace and with greater intensity.

A more frequent and more intense El Niño phenomenon leads to worse consequences for those countries that suffer from it, such as Peru. Study leader Guojian Wang said the current risk of extreme El Niño cases is 5 per century but that in 2050, when warming is forecast to have reached 1,5 degrees, the frequency will double to 10 cases.

To know the effect and frequency of the El Niño phenomenon in the future, five climate models have been used that are based on a global scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions are minimal. That is, they are the global emissions that the IPCC estimates that there will be if the requirements of the Paris Agreement are met. Extreme cases of El Niño occur when the center of rainfall in the Pacific moves towards South America, which causes alterations in the climate, which are more accentuated the further east the center moves.

Therefore, the effects of climate change are already unstoppable. All we can do is appease them as much as we can.

 


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