Fight climate change it is of vital importance for the survival of the human species on the planet. Thanks to many scientists and repeated research we can learn more about the devastating effects of climate change, global warming, the increase in natural phenomena, etc.
Therefore, The BBVA Foundation has awarded its Frontiers of Knowledge in Climate Change award to climatologists Syukuro Manabe and James Hansen. What have these men discovered or provided to climate science to receive this accolade?
Development of greenhouse gas emission models
Syukuro Manabe born in Japan and James Hansen in the United States have been pioneers in the development of mathematical models that are used to calculate the accumulation of gases emitted by human economic activities in the atmosphere. In addition to calculating them, they estimate their impacts on the Earth's climate.
Manabe during his career, has spent much of his time in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Princeton University. There he began to theorize and develop his numerical models to simulate the behavior of the atmosphere in the 60s. At that time it was still unknown that CO2 concentrations were increasing considerably, and even less that these emissions could have devastating effects on the climate.
As technology developed, Manabe incorporated digital elements into his research using computers. This helped him create the first global atmospheric circulation model. Thanks to this model he was able to detect that increasing CO2 concentration increased global temperature and if this concentration were to double than it was at that time, the global temperature would increase by two degrees, having devastating effects on ecosystems and irreversible processes.
On the other hand, Hansen, born 10 years later, took a reference from Manabe and began his research work that led him to develop a new model and methodology to measure the increase in the Earth's temperature due to the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. This increase corresponds to 4 degrees with respect to the pre-industrial era, thus following the current trend.
They were able to predict alterations caused by climate change
Other reasons that the jury has valued for giving the award to these scientists is to generate predictions and analysis methods that, even with the advancement of research and technology, have withstood the test of time. Such have been his predictions that already in the early 80s he predicted that climate change would introduce alterations in ocean circulation, arctic ice, or the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods.
The press conference of the winners lasted a few hours and they thanked and answered the questions by videoconference. Hansen has commented to journalists and has been forceful about the need to abandon the use of fossil fuels as soon as possible. Of wanting to stop the effects of climate change, This is the only way to avoid the catastrophes that await us.
Hansen has said that for many good intentions and emission reduction targets that countries have set for themselves through the Paris Agreement, curbing gases will be "impossible" if fossils remain "the cheapest form of energy", so has appealed to countries to put a carbon tax as soon as possible. He has also stated that if we want to reduce global temperatures and not increase them above 1,5 degrees, It is only possible if we start to reduce global emissions by 2% per year. This reduction should be done now, because if we wait another decade before taking this issue as a priority, it will already be too late to stop the devastating effects of climate change.
Finally, he warned that we will completely lose the Arctic ice in the near future with serious alterations to ocean currents and that half of the large cities of the planet, located next to the coast, would be submerged by the rise in sea level to end of the century.