“The weather is crazy” is perhaps the phrase that most accurately describes the increasingly complex weather patterns we are witnessing. Every year, we endure some of the hottest summers on record, but we also face the threat of freezing temperatures, heavier rainfall, and increasingly severe natural disasters such as hurricanes and cyclones. For many years, there has been talk of unusually warm temperatures in the Atlantic, which seemed to remain constant. However, recent observations made by scientists over the past three months reveal a surprising trend: the Atlantic is actually cooling.
In this article we are going to tell you What are the consequences of the imminent cooling of the Atlantic?.
The enigma surrounding the rapid cooling of the Atlantic
The Atlantic Ocean, considered one of the most observed and researched bodies of water on the planet, allows even the smallest changes to be detected with relative ease. As a result, the alarming record fluctuations raise concerns within the scientific community, as these alterations could profoundly affect not only global climate systems, but also the frequency and severity of weather phenomena such as hurricanes. This is a developing trend, similar to that of an "Atlantic Girl."
Throughout history, global warming has been observed to directly affect the oceans, leading to rising surface water temperatures, a trend that had already been predicted. Instead, the Atlantic is defying this pattern. Instead of persistently warming, specific regions of the ocean are experiencing a worrying cooling trend, a phenomenon that remains largely unexplained to scientists.
The North Atlantic is one of the regions most affected by this cooling trend, with significant temperature drops observed in recent years. Although some theories propose that changes in ocean currents, water circulation or even the melting of Greenland may be contributing to this phenomenon, no definitive agreement has yet been reached. However, the most pressing problem is that, as Pedro DiNezio of the University of Colorado at Boulder points out, this change in temperature has also begun to become evident in the equatorial Atlantic (the tropics) since May.
Although the overall average temperature change is evident, One specific area of growing concern is a thin strip along the equator, near the African coast. Remarkably, this region has experienced the fastest transition ever documented. The summer cooling of these waters is a result of westward-blowing trade winds, which typically strengthen during this time as a narrow band of tropical storms moves northward. Heat from the ocean is partially dissipated through the interaction of these winds with the water.
Impact on global climate
The global climate is significantly affected, particularly in the formation of hurricanes. These storms derive their energy from the heat of the ocean, meaning that variations in surface water temperatures can greatly influence their behavior. A cooler Atlantic can decrease the energy accessible to hurricanes, resulting in weaker storms. However, This result is not guaranteed, since other elements, including changes in wind patterns and humidity levels, are also vital in the development of these meteorological phenomena.
Furthermore, a drop in Atlantic temperatures can have far-reaching effects on global climate. As a crucial component of the thermohaline circulation, the Atlantic Ocean functions as a massive heat distribution system around the world. If the Atlantic cools, this circulation could be disrupted, influencing weather patterns in Europe, North America, and several other regions. Consequently, some areas could face harsher winters, while others could see warmer or drier summer conditions.
The only inference that can be made is that while a Pacific La Niña is generally correlated with arid conditions in the western United States and increased rainfall in eastern Africa, an Atlantic La Niña is likely to reduce rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa and increase it in certain areas of Brazil. However, there is reason for optimism that the existence of an Atlantic La Niña could postpone the onset of a Pacific La Niña, thus mitigating its global cooling impacts.
Impacts on the Balearic Islands
There has been great concern within the scientific community regarding the possible collapse of the Gulf Stream, as highlighted in a study published in the journal Science Advances. Professor of Earth Physics at the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB) and director of the Interdisciplinary Laboratory of Climate Change (LINCC), Damià Gomis, has analysed the possible implications of this phenomenon for the Balearic Islands.
A reduction in Atlantic currents would cause cooling across Europe, although the effects would vary between northern and Mediterranean regions. In Scandinavia, winter temperatures could fall by as much as 30ºC (about 10ºC during summer), while in In the Mediterranean there would be a winter drop of 3-4ºC and a summer drop of 1-2ºC.
It is crucial to recognize that the observed cooling is entirely attributable to the collapse of the AMOC and must be considered together with the global warming resulting from the increase in atmospheric CO2 levels. For the Mediterranean and the Balearic Islands, the overall effect could approach zero, depending on the greenhouse gas emissions trajectory adopted in the future.
Significant changes in rainfall
As for precipitation, a collapse of the AMOC would cause substantial alterations in its patterns. In Europe, this would mean a reduction of 10% during winter and 30% in summer.
In conclusion, the Balearic Islands would face considerable effects from the collapse of the Gulf Stream, including a drop in winter temperatures and alterations in rainfall patterns. The overall effect of the cooling resulting from the failure of the AMOC, together with global warming, will depend on the greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
Previous studies had warned of the possibility of a collapse of the AMOC, which could occur between 2025 and 2095. However, the new study by the Utrecht researchers is the first to reveal the presence of a point of no return; exceeding this threshold would make the collapse of the system inevitable.
The probability of reaching this crucial point between 2025 and 2095 is estimated at 95%., which is significantly higher than the predictions made in the IPCC reports. In addition, the study indicates that the collapse could occur earlier than expected, resulting in a gradual climate effect reflected in a drop in temperature in northern Europe.
I hope that with this information you can learn more about the consequences of the imminent cooling of the Atlantic.