The Mediterranean forest will become a scrubland in 100 years

the Mediterranean forest is more vulnerable to climate change

The effects of climate change on a large scale can sometimes be unpredictable, since we do not know to the millimeter all the relationships and connections that exist between living beings on the planet. What has been confirmed in a study by the University of Córdoba (UCO) in collaboration with the University of Wageningen, in the Netherlands, is that the Mediterranean forest will be reduced little by little until it becomes practically scrub in about 100 years due to the effects of climate change.

The UCO has reported in a statement that climate change is a highly topical issue at international summits and events that occupies part of the efforts of the scientific community that studies what is at risk and what awaits the world.

Climate change in the Mediterranean

the Mediterranean forest will become a scrubland in 100 years

Efforts to halt climate change are not being strong enough to prevent global temperatures from warming by two to three degrees Celsius in about a hundred years, leading to less precipitation.

This disturbing question has led the UCO research group to study how plants react to rising temperatures. The study has investigated how plants respond to droughts and how different species of associated flora and fauna recover from damage.

The cork oak is one of the species that will be most affected by climate change. The UCO research group has focused on the Mediterranean forest, since it is where there is more biodiversity in Spain. The study confirms that the Mediterranean forest will suffer much more as a result of climate change than the scrub that exists in these ecosystems. In a hundred years this type of landscape will be transformed and will be predominantly scrub, since the typical species of the area such as the strawberry tree or the cork oak will gradually disappear.

The Mediterranean forest most affected by climate change

rockrose resists drought and recovers

The research has been published in the journal «Plant Biology«. The study details that plant species of this type persist with increasing temperatures and lack of water, regulating the time they spend on photosynthesis. During photosynthesis, the leaves open their stomata to exchange CO2 from the environment and generate oxygen. However, the opening of the stomata causes a perspiration of the water and, therefore, loss of it. The more temperature there is in the environment, more water is lost during photosynthesis.

We are talking about the regulation and restriction of a vital process for plants, which is normally reduced in summer and in times of drought to save water. In spring the opening of the plant to the outside is high and the photosynthesis rate is very high while in summer the values ​​fall and in autumn, with the rains, the plant recovers and grows. In this way, in times of drought, the plants drastically reduce this opening to the outside to about two hours a day and they do it first thing in the morning.

The study has also focused on some scrublands that are affected by rising temperatures and droughts. For example, rockrose, suffer a lot during times of drought, even losing their leaves, however, with the first rains of autumn, they are the first to recover. The advantage that shrubs have over trees is that they have more adaptability than their characteristics and can survive better in environments whose environmental factors are not favorable. Rockrose also have a great colonization capacity after a fire or drought, and therefore, if the trees are declining after the effects of climate change, it is the rockrose that will colonize and turn the Mediterranean forest into a thicket.

Cork oaks are more vulnerable

Cork oaks do not have the ability to adapt to differences in temperatures, droughts and the like that rockrose have, so their recovery after an episode of these is very slow. If to this we add that to produce seeds between 20 and 30 years are needed, that these only persist a few months, which -in addition- serve as food for many animals and therefore disappear quickly  the cork oak becomes a vulnerable species for its conservation for the next century.

In conclusion, the study affirms that the Mediterranean forest will suffer much more from the consequences of climate change than the scrubland and that, therefore, the forests will gradually retreat to make way for scrub species.


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